美国贸易赤字的成因分析--兼论美元贬值的成效

从汇率、国内吸收以及直接投资与贸易的关系三个角度,利用美国1980-2004年的年度数据,通过简单OLS方法得出美国的进出口方程,可以揭示影响美国贸易逆差的主要原因,以及美元贬值对贸易逆差的影响,结果表明:(1)美元贬值主要通过影响出口而非进口改善贸易收支,但存在2年左右的滞后期,因此美元截至目前的贬值并没有明显改善贸易逆差;(2)从收入影响看,由于H-M收入非对称效应的存在,要减少贸易逆差需要美国相对国外更大幅度的紧缩;(3)从直接投资与贸易的关系看,美国对外直接投资转移了本国的供给,增大了美国进口。大规模减少美国贸易逆差不可能仅仅依靠美元汇率贬值,而是需要中长期的结构性调整,2006年美国贸易逆差将进一步扩大。     

论马克思历史哲学的本质特征

马克思历史哲学坚持以唯物史观为指南,力求在整体上、深层次上探寻历史的本质及其进程的内在规律。马克思历史哲学的本质特征在于:在历史观领域内实现了"三个"内在统一,即实现了历史本体论、历史认识论、历史方法论的统一,实现了历史认识论、历史价值论、历史审美论的统一,实现了历史认识中能动性与受动性、客观性与阶级性、绝对性与相对性的统一。     

论历史美的本质与特征

历史美是体现着人类历史发展的本质与规律,能够引起人们的愉悦情感的具体的社会历史形象。人类在历史活动中按照美的规律不断地显示和实现自己的本质力量,从而创造着历史美。历史美从本质上说是人的本质力量对象化的确证和展现。历史美可分为历史的自然美、社会美和艺术美三类。历史美具有的三个根本特征是广博性、可感知性、情感性。     

Resilience for dropout students with depression in secondary schools in Hong Kong: parental attachment,hope and community integration

ABSTRACT

The objective of this qualitative research is to better understand school dropout students with depression in Hong Kong and how they overcome their adversities. Three girls and five boys participated in the study. The results showed that the Hong Kong cultural context was affected by school competition and the effect of mental health labelling. Jaspers’ phenomenology was utilised to understand the phenomenon of school dropout and depression. The findings illustrated the importance of secure parental attachment, substitute secure attachment, hope, supportive environment and community integration in helping dropout students with depression to overcome adversities. A resilience model for school dropouts with depression is proposed for improving professional practice in Hong Kong.     

What accounts for China''s trade balance dynamics?

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E. S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade ‘imbalance’.     

国外现代商业银行风险管理及其启示

风险管理是现代微观金融学的一大支柱,也是现代商业银行的核心功能之一,因此,在商业银行管理中具有极其重要的地位。现代商业银行风险管理体系包括:风险控制组织、风险度量技术、风险规避技术、全面风险管理模式。我国应借鉴国外经验,积极引进并应用先进风险度量方法和风险管理技术。     

‘I was bored so…’: motivational accounts of participation in an online emo group

We examine members' spontaneous accounts for joining and participating in an online emo forum. The Internet and social networking sites are central features of contemporary youth cultures; the analysis of interaction on emo forums can thus provide a way of appreciating emo as a ‘Community in Practice’. We analyse popular discussion threads collected from a key emo website, using membership categorisation and conversation analysis. In these threads, members introduce themselves and account for joining and posting pictures in response to a prior request to do so. Analysis shows that newbies establish their emo attributes and hence entitlement to participate while dismissing emo-related motivation for joining the forum, claiming instead a desire to relieve boredom. Participants similarly accounted for posting photos of themselves and for producing fan pics as due to boredom. We show how claiming to be bored allows members to engage with the group while negotiating potentially problematic inferences that attend subcultural membership. We conclude that our approach provides a useful methodology for furthering our understanding of an important aspect of contemporary youth subcultures.     

中国民间幻想故事中"魔物"话语的文化解读

中国许多民间幻想故事都有“魔物”意象。魔物的使用不能违背禁令 ,于是 ,故事情节往往围绕着如何使用魔物而展开 ,“禁令→违禁→惩罚”成为这类幻想故事相对固定的结构范式。正角的守禁与反角的违禁以及相应的不同后果 ,构成了魔物话语三种不同的表现形态。同时 ,违禁或守禁取决于人物的道德品质。魔物话语展示了民众鲜明的道德倾向性。     

早锻炼对大学生学习疲劳和脑力工作能力影响的研究

目的 了解大学生早锻炼活动的开展与学习疲劳和脑力工作能力的关系,为促进大学生身心健康,推进高职高专早锻炼活动的健康发展,提供必要的理论依据与参考.方法 选取某高职高专学校学生102名,随机分为干预组(早锻炼组)和对照组(未早锻炼组),采用剂量作业试验(校字法)测量全天不同时段的学习疲劳情况及脑力工作能力曲线,并自编问卷调查学习疲劳的可能影响因素.结果 干预4周后,干预组比对照组学生上午的工作速度、错漏率和IMC指数差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);两组IMC指数均表现为第1节课前和第5节课前最高,上午第4节课后和下午第8节课后最低.结论 该校医学生学习疲劳普遍存在,早锻炼确能改善学生的脑力工作能力,特别是对上午的学习状态和学习疲劳影响较大.     

数字时代下创业企业与用户如何开发机会实现价值共创?北大核心CSSCI

数字时代的到来正在改变创业行为和结果,但此背景下创业企业与用户互动以实现价值创造的机制还处于理论探索阶段。基于此,本文从创业机会开发视角出发,以尚品宅配和小米为案例研究对象,构建“价值主张—互动—创业机会开发—价值实现”研究框架。研究发现:机会开发由创业企业与用户共同完成,用户被纳入价值主张、创造环节,并共享价值创造成果;创业企业与用户形成两条价值共创路径,即创业企业与用户发现和创造创业机会实现价值共创;在机会开发过程中,数字化情境为两者互动形成创业机会提供基础桥梁。本文引入“创业机会”这个重要概念解释价值共创机制,尝试打开数字时代下创业企业和用户互动形成价值创造的理论黑箱,为创业企业有效协调与用户之间的关系提供启示。