Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries*

Objectives. The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries in both the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted a reconsideration of the role of delegate‐selection rules in influencing the strategic behavior of presidential candidates. Using advertising and candidate state‐visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns, we reexamine the strategies presidential candidates use when competing for the nomination of their party. Methods. Using the Wisconsin Advertising Project Data from 2004 and 2008, we estimate several multiple regressions designed to analyze the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising. Results. We find that, to a large extent, the rules of the game help predict where candidates allocate their political advertising and campaign stops; candidates consider whether a contest is a primary or caucus, they pay attention to how many delegates are at stake, and they consider whether a state's delegate‐allocation method is largely proportional or winner take all. Yet we also find some differences in how the rules influence frontrunners and long‐shot candidates, and we discover how other factors, including a candidate's access to financial resources, influence the allocation of ads and visits. Conclusion. Our findings offer some of the first empirical evidence for the idea that a state's delegate‐allocation method influences candidates' resource‐allocation behavior. That these rules matter at all is somewhat of a surprise given that the delegate‐allocation methods used by states have become more homogenous within each party.     

Predicting the Probability that a Chemical Causes Steatosis Using Adverse Outcome Pathway Bayesian Networks (AOPBNs)

Adverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert-driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts steatosis for the chemicals from our external data. In addition, we demonstrate how end users can utilize the model to simulate the confidence (based on posterior probability) associated with predicting steatosis. We demonstrate how the network topology impacts predictions across the AOPBN, and how the AOPBN helps us identify the most informative key events that should be monitored for predicting steatosis. We close with a discussion of how the model can be used to predict potential effects of mixtures and how to model susceptible populations (e.g., where a mutation or stressor may change the conditional probability tables in the AOPBN). Using this approach for developing expert AOPBNs will facilitate the prediction of chemical toxicity, facilitate the identification of assay batteries, and greatly improve chemical hazard screening strategies.     

“I Want to Feel Like a Full Man”: Conceptualizing Gay,Bisexual, and Heterosexual Men’s Sexual Difficulties

Current understandings of sexual difficulties originate from a model that is based on the study of heterosexual men and women. Most research has focused on sexual difficulties experienced by heterosexual men incapable of engaging in vaginal penetration. To better understand men’s perceptions and experiences of sexual difficulties, seven focus groups and 29 individual interviews were conducted with gay (n = 22), bisexual (n = 5), and heterosexual (n = 25) men. In addition, the extent to which difficulties reported by gay and bisexual men differ from heterosexual men was explored. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis applying an inductive approach. Two intercorrelated conceptualizations were identified: penis function (themes: medicalization, masculine identity, psychological consequences, coping mechanisms) and pain (themes: penile pain, pain during receptive anal sex). For the most part, gay, bisexual, and heterosexual men reported similar sexual difficulties; differences were evident regarding alternative masculinity, penis size competition, and pain during receptive anal sex. The results of this study demonstrate the complexity of men’s sexual difficulties and the important role of sociocultural, interpersonal, and psychological factors. Limitations and suggested directions for future research are outlined.     

Comics and visual biography: sequential art in social research

This article describes the use of comics in a mixed methods biographical research project aimed at understanding the experiences of vegans (i.e. people who eschew animal products such as meat, dairy and eggs). It begins with a discussion of Comics Studies as a growing interdisciplinary field of academic inquiry, and attempts to trace a connection between this and Visual Sociology more broadly. It then provides examples of the way in which comics were used in the project and the rationale underpinning this. Participants were asked to create comics about their lives, which aimed to supplement biographical interviews that had already taken place, eliciting rich ‘visual biographical’ data that an interview would not produce. Comics were also used as a mode of representation, whereby a ‘visual autoethnography’ was produced, outlining the author’s reflexive autobiographical relationship with veganism, and telling the story of the research. This project presented challenges, specifically around participation, ethics and anonymity, and data analysis. Despite this, the comics produced provided an unusual and valuable insight into the lives and experiences of vegans. To conclude, this article argues that the visual biographical data yielded through the use of the Comics medium represents a valuable tool in visual sociology.     

Re-aligning the Stakeholders in Management Research: Lessons from Industrial, Work and Organizational Psychology

The publication of the Starkey and Madan (2001) report represents a timely and valuable contribution to an ongoing debate across a range of applied disciplines, concerning the nature and purpose of social research. The call for stakeholder alignment, culminating in the production of new knowledge that is both theoretically and methodologically rigorous on the one hand, and socially relevant on the other, is, in our view, to be greatly welcomed. However, the Mode 2 approach advocated by Starkey and Madan will not satisfy these fundamental requirements. Drawing on recent analyses of the nature, causes and consequences of the academic-practitioner divide in the subfield of industrial, work and organizational psychology, we offer an alternative, four-fold taxonomy of the varieties of managerial knowledge. Within our alternative framework, research that is low on rigour but high on relevance (a likely consequence of the wholesale adoption of a Mode 2 approach) is characterized as 'Popularist Science'. 'Pedantic Science', by contrast, is high on rigour but low on relevance, while 'Puerile Science' meets neither requirement. Only 'Pragmatic Science' will meet the twin imperatives of rigour and relevance. Whilst it is highly desirable that Pragmatic Science should dominate the management field, there are considerable barriers that impede its widespread adoption at the present time, not least the limited availability of researchers who possess the requisite sociopolitical and methodological competencies. The immediate imperative that has to be addressed, therefore, is the question of how best to close this competency gap, a fundamental precondition of stakeholder realignment.     

Explaining microfinance's resilience: the case of microfinance in Australia

ABSTRACT

Microfinance has been unsuccessfully deployed as a poverty reduction strategy in the Global South. However, despite advocates acknowledging this shortcoming, the sector continues to grow. Moreover, over the past decade it has expanded its geographic scope, targeting poor communities in the Global North under the banner of financial inclusion. This article investigates the growth of the Australian sector. Analyzing the impacts of reforms to Australia's social security system alongside the political economy of the microfinance industry, it argues the debtfare state in Australia has provided fertile ground for microfinance's expansion. Documenting the advocacy strategies and tools to target vulnerable communities used by microfinance organizations and corporate partners, it charts how government support and subsidies have created a favourable regulatory environment, driving the sector's growth. This has benefitted these coalitions while displacing other forms of social security, despite the lack of robust evidence demonstrating microfinance's benefits for the poor.     

A simulation comparison of estimators for a regression coefficient under differential non-response

We consider the estimation of a regression coefficient in a linear regression when observations are missing due to nonresponse. Response is assumed to be determined by a nonobservable variable which is linearly related to an observable variable. The values of the observable variable are assumed to be available for the whole sample but the variable is not includsd in the regression relationship of interest . Several alternative estimators have been proposed for this situation under various simplifying assumptions. A sampling theory approach provides three alternative estimatrs by considering the observatins as obtained from a sub-sample, selected on the basis of the fully observable variable , as formulated by Nathan and Holt (1980). Under an econometric approach, Heckman (1979) proposed a two-stage (probit and OLS) estimator which is consistent under specificconditions. A simulation comparison of the four estimators and the ordinary least squares estimator , under multivariate normality of all the variables involved, indicates that the econometric approach estimator is not robust to departures from the conditions underlying its derivation, while two of the other estimators exhibit a similar degree of stable performance over a wide range of conditions. Simulations for a non-normal distribution show that gains in performance can be obtained if observations on the independent variable are available for the whole population.