What difference would it make if cancer were eradicated? An examination of the taeuber paradox

The immediate effect of discovering a way to cure cancer would be a reduction in the number of deaths in the United States by the number of people now dying from that cause. Within a short time, however, deaths from other causes would increase, and the net long-term effect would be relatively small. A parameter is derived that measures how much the expectation of life is increased by a marginal reduction in any cause of death. That parameter is additive in the several causes and has other advantages, though it does not avoid the assumption of independence.     

Fire Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants: Methodological Developments and Applications

A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant.     

The sociology of consumption: Deriving new social indicators

A new area of research is emerging from an integration of sociology and consumer research. It is called the ‘sociology of consumption’. To date, its applications have been most thoroughly spelled out for marketers and consumer researchers. This paper explores the relevance of the sociology of consumption for social indicators research. It begins by defining this new area of research, then it discusses how a society's consumption may be conceptualized and measured. It concludes with several examples of how the study of consumption can not only be used to characterize societies but to reveal their social processes as well.     

The Development and Validation of the Couple and Relationship Education Attitudes Index: Results from Two Studies

As relationship educators work to reach more participants for their programs, they often face challenges with recruitment and retention. The theory of planned behavior, along with research, posits that attitudes are often predictive of behavior, and that attitudes toward education and help-seeking can be varied by unique contexts. This paper reports on the development and validation of an index that measures attitudes toward couple relationship education (CRE). The two scales within this index (benefits of CRE & CRE is not a good fit) assess how comfortable individuals are with CRE. The results from two studies support the validation of the index and show how CRE attitudes are linked to relational factors and a measure of intentions to attend CRE, using the scales within the index. Implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

The sex offender in Minnesota

J. Dudley Chapman, D.O.: The Feminine Mind and Body. Philosophical Library, New York, 1967. 325 pages. Price $6.95.

Eric W. Johnson: Love if Sex In Plain Language. J. B. Lippincott Company, Philadelphia and New York, 1965. 68 pages. Price $2.95.

Sophia J. Kleegman and Sherwin A. Kaufman: Infertility in Women. F. A. Davis Company, Philadelphia, 1966.

Richard H. Klemer, Ph.D. (ed.): Counseling in Marital and Sexual Problems. A Physician's Handbook. Williams &; Wilkins Co., Baltimore, 1965. 309 pages. Price $9.75.

Hans Lehfeldt, M.D. and Henry Guze, Ph.D.: Psychologic Factors in Contraceptive Failure. Fertility and Sterility, 17: 1, January 1966, 110–115.

Alexander Lowen: The Betrayal of the Body. The Macmillan Co., New York, 1967, 307 pages. Price $6.95.

Douglas Murphy, M.D., and Editha F. Torrano, M.D.: Donor Insemination. Fertility and Sterility, 17: 2, March‐April 1966, pp. 273–277.

Sam Blum. What Every Nice Boy Knew About Sex. B. Geis Associates‐Random House, New York, 1967.

Frank H. Netter, M.D.: Endocrine System and Selected Metabolical Diseases. Vol. IV, The Ciba Collection of Medical Illustrations. Guest Editor: Peter H. Forsham, M.D. Ciba Pharmaceutical Company, Summit, N.J., 1965. 287 pages. Price $ 22.00

Hyman Spotnitz and Lucy Freeman: The Wandering Husband. Prentice‐Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1964. 224 pages. Price $4.95.

Russel Trainer: The Lolita Complex. Citadel Press, New York, 1966. 315 pages. Price $6.95.     

Effect of forecast errors on rolling horizon master production schedule cost performance for various replanning intervals

Master production schedules are usually updated by the use of a rolling schedule. Previous studies on rolling schedules seem to form the consensus that frequent replanning of a master production schedule (MPS) can increase costs and schedule instability. Building on previous research on rolling schedules, this study addresses the impact of overestimation or underestimation of demand on the rolling horizon MPS cost performance for various replanning frequencies. The MPS model developed in this paper is based on actual data collected from a paint company. Results indicate that under both the forecast errors conditions investigated in this study, a two-replanning interval provided the best MPS cost performance for this company environment. However, results from the sensitivity analysis performed on the MPS model indicate that when the setup and inventory carrying costs are high, a 1-month replanning frequency (frequent replanning) seems more appropriate for both of the above forecast error scenarios.     

Transformations and the Income Tax

Many of the more useful and powerful nonparametric procedures may be presented in a unified manner by treating them as rank transformation procedures. Rank transformation procedures are ones in which the usual parametric procedure is applied to the ranks of the data instead of to the data themselves. This technique should be viewed as a useful tool for developing nonparametric procedures to solve new problems.     

论文化簇

文化簇进路就是用所有相关学科来考察所有的相关资料,理解人文或社会科学问题。这种进路从给定问题存在于其中的文化的所有维度,如科学、观念、社会关系、经济、宗教、政治、亲属关系等等,来研究该问题。用这个想法可以发现,《授时历》受外来影响很小,是因为忽必烈保持不同族群之间的知识分离,好让自己享有多种选择的特权;北宋博学之士中,有科学思想者都担负着与科学相关的公务职责,而明末晚清的博学之士在科学上有创新精神者,多是考证运动中的名师;对李约瑟问题数以百计的不同回答没有导致任何有用的结论,其原因在于答者不明白科学革命并非一定导致社会革命;不二臣的惯例在宋—元转型期不重要,但在明—清转型期却盛行起来,这种反差是一个有待研究的有趣问题。     

The Use of Narrative Evidence and Explicit Likelihood by Decisionmakers Varying in Numeracy

Decisionmakers are often presented with explicit likelihood assessments (e.g., there is a 10% chance that an attack will occur over the next three months) and supporting narrative evidence in forecasting and risk communication domains. Decisionmakers are thought to rely on both numerical and narrative information to the extent that they perceive the information to be diagnostic, accurate, and trustworthy. In two studies, we explored how lay decisionmakers varying in numeracy evaluated and used likelihood assessments and narrative evidence in forecasts. Overall, the less numerate reported higher risk and likelihood perceptions. In simple probabilistic forecasts without narrative evidence, decisionmakers at all levels of numeracy were able to use the stated likelihood information, although risk perceptions of the less numerate were more affected by likelihood format. When a forecast includes narrative evidence, decisionmakers were better able to use stated likelihood in a percentage as compared to frequency or verbal formats. The more numerate used stated likelihood more in their evaluations whereas the less numerate focused more on the narrative evidence. These results have important implications for risk analysts and forecasters who need to report the results of their analyses to decisionmakers. Decisionmakers varying in numerical ability may evaluate forecasts in different ways depending on the types of information they find easiest to evaluate.