Tukey’s M-estimator of the Poisson parameter with a special focus on small means

We treat robust M-estimators for independent and identically distributed Poisson data. We introduce modified Tukey M-estimators with bias correction and compare them to M-estimators based on the Huber function as well as to weighted likelihood and other estimators by simulation in case of clean data and data with outliers. In particular, we investigate the problem of combining robustness and high efficiencies at small Poisson means caused by the strong asymmetry of such Poisson distributions and propose a further estimator based on adaptive trimming. The advantages of the constructed estimators are illustrated by an application to smoothing count data with a time varying mean and level shifts.     

Individual Differences in Infant Oculomotor Behavior During the Viewing of Complex Naturalistic Scenes

Little research hitherto has examined how individual differences in attention, as assessed using standard experimental paradigms, relate to individual differences in how attention is spontaneously allocated in more naturalistic contexts. Here, we analyzed the time intervals between refoveating eye movements (fixation durations) while typically developing 11‐month‐old infants viewed a 90‐min battery ranging from complex dynamic to noncomplex static materials. The same infants also completed experimental assessments of cognitive control, psychomotor reaction times (RT), processing speed (indexed via peak look during habituation), and arousal (indexed via tonic pupil size). High test–retest reliability was found for fixation duration, across testing sessions and across types of viewing material. Increased cognitive control and increased arousal were associated with reduced variability in fixation duration. For fixations to dynamic stimuli, in which a large proportion of saccades may be exogenously cued, we found that psychomotor RT measures were most predictive of mean fixation duration; for fixations to static stimuli, in contrast, in which there is less exogenous attentional capture, we found that psychomotor RT did not predict performance, but that measures of cognitive control and arousal did. The implications of these findings for understanding the development of attentional control in naturalistic settings are discussed.     

Adaption agiler Prinzipien für den Hochschulkontext am Beispiel des Universitätskollegs der Universität Hamburg

This report on practice discusses the pertinence of agile principles on the basis of the case “Universitätskolleg”, a central organisational unit of Universität Hamburg to promote the quality of studies and teaching. It describes previous experience with the framework scrum and the method Lean Kanban in mind. Odds and challenges of agile principles in university context are described and reflected and next steps are named.     

The Resilient Survivor—A Student Social Worker's Journey on Placement

This paper represents the continuation of my ‘personal and professional journey’ from social work student to social work practitioner focusing on my first Practice Learning Opportunity (PLO). Recognising the potential impact of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) in a classroom environment is as important as the potential impact on actual practice learning and practice. This is salient in the real world of social work practice as the potential misuse of a painful childhood experience has greater ramifications. Utilising the ideas and assumptions of social constructionism (including context and multivocality) the significance of silence from social work educators shall be examined in relation to self-disclosure as a means of aiding PLO learning and practice. This paper will also focus on the concept of critical reflection and its significance in exploring the transferability of a childhood experience such as CSA and personal and professional dilemmas regarding self-disclosure. This paper concludes by highlighting areas for consideration for both students and social work educators and conveys an important message regarding the importance of communication between students and social work educators.     

The German East-West Mortality Difference: Two Crossovers Driven by Smoking

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50–69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differences and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Mortality forecasting methods that do not account for smoking would, perhaps misleadingly, forecast a growing mortality advantage for East German women. Experience from other countries shows that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming an example warning of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms.     

Non-Heterosexuality,Relationships, and Young Women’s Contraceptive Behavior

Non-heterosexual young women have a higher rate of unintended pregnancy than their heterosexual peers, but their fertility behaviors are understudied. We use longitudinal data from the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life study to investigate mechanisms contributing to non-heterosexual women’s higher pregnancy risk. These data include weekly reports of relationships, sex, and contraceptive use over 30 months. We compare the relationships and fertility behaviors of three groups: exclusively heterosexual (consistent heterosexual behavior, identity, and attraction); mostly heterosexual (heterosexual identity with same-sex behavior and/or same-sex attraction); and LGBTQ (any non-heterosexual identity). We find that mostly heterosexual and LGBTQ women behave differently from exclusively heterosexual women in ways likely to elevate their risk of unintended pregnancy: more distinct partners during the study period, more sexual intercourse with men, less frequent contraceptive use, less use of a dual method (condom plus hormonal method), and more gaps in contraceptive coverage. Mostly heterosexual women resemble LGBTQ women in their contraceptive behavior but have significantly more intercourse with men, which may increase their pregnancy risk relative to both LGBTQ and exclusively heterosexual women. We conclude by considering implications for LGBTQ health and the measurement of sexual minority populations.     

The impact of mortality development on the number of centenarians in England and wales

The world is ageing both at an individual and a population level, and population ageing is truly a global phenomenon. Life expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 47 years in the mid-20th century to around 70 years today, and are expected to rise to 76 years by the mid-21st century. The proportion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 8 % in the mid-20th century to 12 %, and by 2050 it is expected to reach 21 %. The emergence of large numbers of centenarians has accompanied this development. This paper outlines this emergence historically and the likely growth in the number of centenarians in the 21st century, in particular in England and Wales, analysing mortality trends since 1840 and the rise in the number of centenarians in the 20th and 21st centuries. The number of centenarians in England and Wales increased from around 160 in 1922 to almost 12,500 by 2012, but if mortality at all ages had remained constant from 1912 to 2012, then by 2012 the number of centenarians would only have been around 720. By 2100, the number of centenarians is expected to reach around 1.4 million, but if future mortality at all ages were to remain constant, then by 2100 the number of centenarians would be around 78,000. However, if predicted mortality for those aged 55 years and over was to decrease by an additional 5 % every 5 years until 2100, then the number of centenarians in England and Wales would reach around 1.8 million by the end of the century.     

The Slaughtered and the Survivors: Collaboration Between Social Economy Organizations as a Key to Success in Times of Financial Crisis

The objective of this study is to analyze the aspects that allowed a critical part of Social Economy Organizations (SEOs) to survive a recession period, especially participation in collaborative networks. The financial stress of an SEO will depend on the resources and capabilities available to the organization. To analyze the financial stress of Spanish SEOs, we defined a sample of 714 SEOs. Approximately half of these organizations suffered from financial stress in the analyzed period (2009–2012). The results obtained in this study reveal the existence of three factors that distinguish organizations under financial stress: (a) a high dependence on government funding; (b) changes in the relationship between staff and volunteers; and (c) a lack of access to markets. The combination of these three elements results in an unsustainable situation for the organization. The development of a collaborative profile increases the SEO’s probability of surviving the adverse manifestations of its environment.