Multilevel estimation of normalization constants using ensemble Kalman–Bucy filters

Statistics and Computing - This paper presents tests to formally choose between regression models using different derivatives of a functional covariate in scalar-on-function regression. We...     

Beyond state-centrism? Space,territoriality, and geographical scale in globalization studies

Theory and Society -     

Stratified analysis of correlated binary outcome data: a comparison of model dependent and robust tests of significance

Model dependent and robust test statistics constructed using a generalized estimating equations extension of logistic regression applicable to the analysis of correlated binary outcome data are shown to have relatively simple algebraic expressions in stratified analyses where all variables are measured at the cluster level These expressions are used to demonstrate the close relationship to standard procedures which assume that subjects responses are independent, to prove that the asymptotic validity of model dependent test statistics is assured if the average correlation between cluster members is constant, and that this assumption can be relaxed when there are the same number of subjects in each cluster.     

The attraction to sexual aggression scale: Part two

In this second article of a two‐part series, data from three separate studies are presented supporting the reliability, discriminant, and construct validity of the Attraction to Sexual Aggression (ASA) scale. Higher scores on this scale were associated with attitudes supporting aggression against women, affective reactions to media portrayals of forced sex, physiological and self‐reported sexual arousal, hostility toward women, dominance motives, and antisocial personality characteristics. Based on data with low sexual aggressors, higher ASA scores were associated with greater similarity (on relevant dimensions) to high sexual aggressors, suggesting that ASA may help identify potentially sexually aggressive men at “risk” for future sexual coercion. However, caution in the use of such identification is urged. Finally, it is concluded that although the data support the usefulness of earlier work with self‐reported likelihood measures, the use of ASA is an improvement in this line of research. Directions for future development of this scale and research are also discussed.     

Binomial confidence limits adjusted for a confounding variable

A simple transformation of classical binomial confidence limits provides exact confidence limits in situations where a confounding variable is present. An example is the multiple-choice test, where a correct answer may represent either knowledge or guesswork, the latter being the confounding variable.     

Estimation of Weibull parameters from common percentiles

Estimation of Weibull distribution shape and scale parameters is accomplished through use of symmetrically located percentiles from a sample. The process requires algebraic solution of two equations derived from the cumulative distribution function. Three alternatives examined are compared for precision and variability with maximum likelihood (MLE) and least squares (LS) estimators. The best percentile estimator (using the 10th and 90th) is inferior to MLE in variability and to one least squares estimator in accuracy and variability to a small degree. However, application of a correction factor related to sample size improves the percentile estimator substantially, making it more accurate than LS.     

Charles Tilly and American Pragmatism

Charles Tilly’s work on repertoires of contention and social mechanisms was pathbreaking. In this article, I argue that his understanding of both concepts overlaps with social-theoretical work informed by the philosophical tradition of classical American pragmatism. There is no evidence that Tilly was influenced by pragmatism, but I argue that the overlap is substantial enough that large portions of his oeuvre can serve as illustrations of the explanatory power of pragmatist social science—and that Tilly’s theorization of mechanisms in particular would have been even stronger had he engaged pragmatism directly.     

Using Time Intervals Between Expected Events to Communicate Risk Magnitudes

Because members of the public have difficulty understanding risk presented in terms of odds ratios (e.g., 1 in 1000) and in comparing odds ratios from different hazards, we examined the use of time intervals between expected harmful events to communicate risk. Perceptions of the risk from a hypothetical instance of naturally-occurring, cancer-causing arsenic in drinking water supplies was examined with a sample of 705 homeowners. The risk was described as either 1 in 1000 or 1 in 100,000 and as present in a town of 2000 people or a city of 200,000 people. With these parameters, the time intervals ranged from 1 expected death in 3500 years (1 in 100,000 risk, small town) to 1 death every 4 months (1 in 1000 risk, city). The addition of time intervals to the odds ratios significantly decreased perceived threat and perceived need for action in the small town but did not affect response for the city. These framing effects were nearly as large as a 100-fold difference in actual risk. Instances when this communication approach may be useful are discussed.     

Agency Communication, Community Outrage, and Perception of Risk: Three Simulation Experiments

Three experimental studies were conducted employing hypothetical news stories to compare the effects on reader risk perceptions of two situations: when agency communication behavior was reported to be responsive to citizens' risk concerns, vs. when the agency was reported to be unresponsive. In the first two experiments, news stories of public meetings filled with distrust and controversy led to ratings indicating greater perceived risk than news stories reporting no distrust or controversy, even though the risk information was held constant. This effect appeared clearly when the differences in meeting tone were extreme and subjects made their ratings from their recall of the stories, but it was much weaker when the differences were moderate and subjects were allowed to go back over the news stories to help separate risk information from conflict information. In the third experiment, news stories about a spill cleanup systematically varied the seriousness of the spill, the amount of technical information provided in the story, and the agency behavior and resulting community outrage. The outrage manipulation significantly affected affective and cognitive components of perceived risk, but not hypothetical behavioral intentions. Seriousness and technical detail had very little effect on perceived risk.