Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

Glass Cliffs Are Not So Easily Scaled: On the Precariousness of Female CEOs' Positions

Adams, Gupta and Leeth ( British Journal of Management , 2008) question the universality of the glass cliff after finding no differences in US companies' financial performance either before or after the appointment of male and female CEOs. We agree that glass cliffs are neither universal nor ineluctable, but urge caution in interpreting this null result. This is because the nature and significance of women's precarious leadership positions becomes more apparent when one goes beyond archival financial data and compares the broad circumstances of male and female leaders. Here multiple strands of research suggest that above the glass ceiling the playing field for men and women is far from level.     

The Effects of Multitasking on Operations Scheduling

This study considers a typical scheduling environment that is influenced by the behavioral phenomenon of multitasking. Under multitasking, the processing of a selected job suffers from interruption by other jobs that are available but unfinished. This situation arises in a wide variety of applications; for example, administration, manufacturing, and process and project management. Several classical solution methods for scheduling problems no longer apply in the presence of multitasking. The solvability of any scheduling problem under multitasking is no easier than that of the corresponding classical problem. We develop optimal algorithms for some fundamental and practical single machine scheduling problems with multitasking. For other problems, we show that they are computationally intractable, even though in some cases the corresponding problem in classical scheduling is efficiently solvable. We also study the cost increase and value gained due to multitasking. This analysis informs companies about how much it would be worthwhile to invest in measures to reduce or encourage multitasking.     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

Potential for economic development: A quantitative approach

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Canadian Economic Association Annual Meeting, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, June 1987.     

CMHS/CSAT Collaborative Demonstration Program for Homeless Individuals

The Collaborative Demonstration Program for Homeless Individuals is providing an opportunity for several community agencies in the United States to explore innovative intervention and treatment strategies to address the needs of homeless people with co-occurring (mental illness and substance abuse) disorders. This cooperative agreement, funded jointly by the Center for Mental Health Services (CMHS) and the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment (CSAT), is a $3 million project supporting programs in various community agencies to develop, document, and evaluate programs for persons who are homeless with co-occurring disorders to be used as models in other communities. The program models include: Assertive Community Treatment, Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Therapeutic Community, and an integrated treatment model. The first phase of the two-phase project funded 16 programs in the U.S. to develop manuals within their primary treatment modalities for homeless people with co-occurring disorders. For Phase II of the project, six of the 16 model programs were competitively selected to demonstrate program impact through formal program evaluation efforts. The data derived from the various projects will be compiled into a compendium of information for state agencies and community service providers throughout the U.S.