Inference in a Binary Response Model with Applications to Data Analysis*

Standard errors of the coefficients of a logistic regression (a binary response model) based on the asymptotic formula are compared to those obtained from the bootstrap through Monte Carlo simulations. The computer intensive bootstrap method, a nonparametric alternative to the asymptotic estimate, overestimates the true value of the standard errors while the asymptotic formula underestimates it. However, for small samples the bootstrap estimates are substantially closer to the true value than their counterpart derived from the asymptotic formula. The methodology is discussed using two illustrative data sets. The first example deals with a logistic model explaining the log-odds of passing the ERA amendment by the 1982 deadline as a function of percent of women legislators and the percent vote for Reagan. In the second example, the probability that an ingot is ready to roll is modelled using heating time and soaking time as explanatory variables. The results agree with those obtained from the simulations. The value of the study to better decision making through accurate statistical inference is discussed.     

Book Review Mirage: The False Promise of Desert Agriculture. Russell Clemings. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1996. 247 pages; bibliography; index

Population and Environment -     

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.     

Cousins: Charles Darwin, Sir Francis Galton and the birth of eugenics

Sir Francis Galton, scientist, African Explorer and statistician, was a key figure in statistical history. He was the man who devised the statistical concepts of regression and correlation. He was also Charles Darwin's cousin. And, inspired by his reading of Darwin, he was the founder of eugenics: the "science" of improving the human race through selective breeding. Nicholas Gillham tells of a darker side to statistics and heredity.     

Culture Within Sites,Culture as Resources,and Culture as Wider Contexts: A Typology of How Culture Works in Social Movement Theory

Sociologists of social movements agree that culture matters for studying collective action, and have proposed a variety of theoretical concepts to understand culture and mobilization, including framing, free spaces, and collective identity. Despite this, what we mean when we say “culture matters” remains unclear. In this paper, I draw on 30 years of social movement theory and research to construct a typology of three ways that culture is seen as shaping social movement activity: (i) culture renders particular sites fruitful for social movements to mobilize out of; (ii) culture serves as a resource that assists in movement action; and (iii) culture provides wider contexts that shape movement activity. This typology represents the analytic building blocks of theories about culture and social movements, and is presented towards the end of clarifying and sharpening our theoretical concepts. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research that draw on, refine, and extend these three building blocks.     

Analysis of all-zero binomial outcomes with borderline and equilibrium priors

This article is concerned with the analysis of a random sample from a binomial distribution when all the outcomes are zero (or unity). We discuss how elicitation of the prior can be reduced to asking the expert whether (and which of) the so-called borderline or equilibrium priors are plausible.     

The Determinants of Retail Productivity: A Critical Review of the Evidence

This paper discusses the literature on the established determinants of productivity in the retail sector. It also draws attention to some neglected strands of research which provide useful insights into strategies that could allow productivity enhancements in this area of the economy. To date, very few attempts have been made to integrate different specialisms in order to explain what drives productivity in retail. Here this paper rectifies this omission by putting together studies from economics, geography, knowledge management and employment studies. It is the authors’ view that quantitative studies of retail productivity should focus on total factor productivity in retailing as the result of competition/composition effects, planning regulations, information and communications technology, the multinational operation element and workforce skills. Further, the fact that retail firms possess advantages that are transferable between locations suggests that investment in strategies enhancing the transfer of explicit and tacit knowledge between and within businesses are crucial to achieve productivity gains.     

Civil Religion and National Politics in a Neoliberal Era

Civil religion, or the connection of the nation‐state, its history, destiny, and people, to understandings of transcendence or divinity, is in crisis both as a theoretical concept and as a politico‐cultural phenomenon. The crisis has been brought about by the weakened capacity of the nation‐state to generate collective identity and a version of ‘charismatic’ authority. We argue that this has resulted in a shift from the widely accepted conceptualization of civil religion as a unifying force in societies to a more exclusionary force that Williams (2103) calls “tribal civil religion” That, in its own way, undermines the nation‐state. In this paper, we examine the history and various understandings of the concept of civil religion, develop an argument that the assault on the nation‐state has meant the rise of increasingly exclusive and exclusionist expressions of civil religion, and present possible suggestions for sites where ‘unitive’ civil religion may still be found.     

The Hobo Anomalous: Class,minorities and political invention in the Industrial Workers of the World

This article is an analysis of minority political invention in the Industrial Workers of the World (IWW). Against the tendency in recent social and cultural theory to dichotomize class and difference, it argues that it was in and through the IWW's formulation of class that minority political and cultural invention occurred. Using the framework of Deleuze and Guattari's minor politics, the article shows how the IWW's composition in the simultaneously diffuse and cramped plane of work operated against the major political identities and subjects of worker, immigrant, American, citizen and 'people', and towards the creation of minority political knowledges, tactics and cultural styles premised on the condition that 'the people are missing'. Seeking to understand the IWW's modes and techniques of invention, the article explores the general plane of IWW composition, its particular political and cultural expressions (in songs, manifestos, cartoons and tactics), and its minor mode of authorship. The article focuses in particular on two aspects of IWW minority composition, the itinerant worker, or hobo, and the politics of sabotage.