Perceptions of Randomized Security Schedules

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed.     

RACE AND EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM NBA COACHES

We study the impact of management diversity on employment outcomes using data on NBA head coaches that includes information on the race of each coach and his supervisor. We find that a supervisor is more likely to hire a coach of his own race. We also find that black coaches are less likely to be rehired to a second job within three years than their white counterparts, and that a head coach's race affects the quality of the opportunities he is offered. These findings are stronger for first-time coaches than experienced coaches, suggesting that observable information on performance mitigates bias. (JEL J0, J4, J7)     

Measurement Assessment in Cross-Country Comparative Analysis: Rasch Modelling on a Measure of Institutional Quality

This paper uses recent multidimensional well-being measurements to examine multidimensional well-being and inequality across the European regions in 2000 and 2014 with the use of eleven well-being indicators from the OECD Better Life Index. We use generalized mean aggregation method with alternative parameters to allow different substitutability and complementarity levels between well-being dimensions, which range between perfect substitutability and some degree of complementarity between the dimensions, to examine well-being and inequality across the European regions. Accounting for the interactions between the well-being dimensions matters for the multidimensional well-being and inequality across the European regions. The results show that the multidimensional well-being across the European regions are relatively lower when the dimensions are more seen as complements compared to the case when they are considered to be perfect substitutes. Furthermore, there is also a higher degree of multidimensional inequality across the European regions when the dimensions are considered to have some complementarity. Changes in well-being dimensions between 2000 and 2014 indicates that multidimensional well-being improved and inequality decreased in the personal and community well-being categories, but remained unchanged in material well-being category across the European regions irrespective of interaction levels between well-being dimensions. Policy implications of these multidimensional well-being indices are also evaluated by using these indices to determine the eligible regions for the European Union structural funds where the number eligible regions shows some variation depending on whether the dimensions are perfect substitutes or more of complements.

     

Investigating the mechanism of marital mortality reduction: The transition to widowhood and quality of health care

While it is well known that the widowed suffer increased mortality risks, the mechanism of this survival disadvantage is still under investigation. In this article, we examine the quality of health care as a possible link between widowhood and mortality using a unique data set of 475,313 elderly couples who were followed up for up to nine years. We address whether the transition to widowhood affects the quality of care that individuals receive and explore the extent to which these changes mediate the elevated mortality hazard for the widowed. We analyze six established measures of quality of health care in a fixed-effect framework to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Caregiving and acute bereavement during the transition to widowhood appear to distract individuals from taking care of their own health care needs in the short run. However, being widowed does not have long-term detrimental effects on individuals’ ability to sustain contact with the formal medical system. Moreover, the short-run disruption does not mediate the widowhood effect on mortality. Nevertheless, long after spousal death, men suffer from a decline in the quality of informal care, coordination between formal and informal care, and the ability to advocate and communicate in formal medical settings. These findings illustrate women’s centrality in the household production of health and identify important points of intervention in optimizing men’s adjustment to widowhood.     

Personal Values as Mitigating Factors in the Link Between Income and Life Satisfaction: Evidence from the European Social Survey

Using data from the first two rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine the link between income, reference income and life satisfaction across Western Europe. We find that whilst there is a strong positive relationship between income and life satisfaction, reference or comparison income exerts a strong negative influence. Interestingly, our results confirm the importance of personal values and beliefs not only as predictors of subjective well-being, but also as mitigating factors in the relationship between income, reference income and life satisfaction. While our findings provide additional empirical support for the relative utility hypothesis, they are also consistent with Rojas’ (J Econ Psychol 28:1–14, 2007) Conceptual-Referent-Theory (CRT), which is based on the premise that the salience of income and comparison income depends on one’s intrinsic values and personal beliefs.

ENTERTAINING MALTHUS: BREAD,CIRCUSES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Motivated by the basic adage that man does not live by bread alone, we offer a theory of historical economic growth and population dynamics where human beings need food to survive, but enjoy other things, too. Our model imposes a Malthusian constraint on food, but introduces a second good to the analysis that affects living standards without affecting population growth. We show that technological change does a good job explaining historical consumption patterns and population dynamics, including the Neolithic Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, and the Great Divergence. Our theory stands in contrast to models that assume a single composite good and a Malthusian constraint. These models generate negligible growth prior to the Industrial Revolution. However, recent revisions to historical data show that historical living standards—though obviously much lower than today's—varied over time and space much more than previously thought. These revisions include updates to Maddison's dataset, which served as the basis for many papers taking long‐run stagnation as a point of departure. This new evidence suggests that the assumption of long‐run stagnation is problematic. Our model shows that when we give theoretical accounting of these new observations the Industrial Revolution is much less puzzling. (JEL B10, I31, J1, N1, O30)     

The Evolution of Humanitarian Action

A brief review of overall trends in humanitarian action followingthe end of the Cold War is followed by examination of UNHCR'sevolution from a narrowly focused, non-operational organizationto one with a wide field presence and whose concerns are notlimited to refugees. Three changes are highlighted: the increasein the range of UNHCR's interlocutors; the shift from neverquestioning causes to an explicit concern with them; and theimpact of the field presence. The conclusion suggests that humanitarianaction that is not accompanied by political action to addresscauses may eventually face insurmountable problems, and thatwhile UNHCR will continue operate in unstable environments andfor mixed caseloads, its unique responsibility for refugeesmust override wider interests and concerns.     

Inference in a Binary Response Model with Applications to Data Analysis*

Standard errors of the coefficients of a logistic regression (a binary response model) based on the asymptotic formula are compared to those obtained from the bootstrap through Monte Carlo simulations. The computer intensive bootstrap method, a nonparametric alternative to the asymptotic estimate, overestimates the true value of the standard errors while the asymptotic formula underestimates it. However, for small samples the bootstrap estimates are substantially closer to the true value than their counterpart derived from the asymptotic formula. The methodology is discussed using two illustrative data sets. The first example deals with a logistic model explaining the log-odds of passing the ERA amendment by the 1982 deadline as a function of percent of women legislators and the percent vote for Reagan. In the second example, the probability that an ingot is ready to roll is modelled using heating time and soaking time as explanatory variables. The results agree with those obtained from the simulations. The value of the study to better decision making through accurate statistical inference is discussed.