Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Leadership research and cognitive neuroscience: The state of this union

Advances in cognitive neuroscience and other approaches to understanding human behavior from a biological standpoint are only now beginning to filter into leadership research. The purpose of this introduction to the Leadership Quarterly Special Issue on the Biology of Leadership is to outline the organizational cognitive neuroscience approach to leadership research, and show how such an approach can fruitfully inform both leadership and neuroscientific research. Indeed, we advance the view that the further application of cognitive neuroscientific techniques to leadership research will pay great dividends in our understanding of effective leadership behaviors and as such, a future symbiosis between the two fields is a necessity.     

Some characteristics of moral problems in evaluation practice

In order to understand better the nature of moral problems in evaluation, an actual incident from evaluation practice is examined. Based on the incident, six characteristics of moral problems are identified and briefly discussed. The types of research needed on moral aspects of evaluation practice are presented, and ways in which the evaluation profession can aid practitioners in dealing with moral problems are outlined.     

Using Surveys in Public Participation Processes for Risk Decision Making: The Case of the 2003 British GM Nation? Public Debate

This article takes as its case study the “GM Nation?” public debate, a major participation process on the commercialization of agricultural biotechnology, which occurred in Britain during the summer of 2003. We investigate possible self‐selection biases in over 36,000 open questionnaire responses on the risks and benefits of genetically modified crops and food obtained during GM Nation? A comparison sample of equivalent responses from a statistically representative sample (n= 1,363) of the British general public obtained shortly after the conclusion of the debate is reported. This comparison shows that the GM Nation? open responses were indeed not fully representative of British “public opinion” regarding agricultural biotechnology. Rather, such opinion is not a unitary whole, but fragmented, with considerable ambivalence coexisting alongside outright opposition to GM agriculture. The methodological implications for multistage participation processes are discussed: in particular, the need to anticipate outcomes of complex design decisions, and to include representative public surveys as standard where measures of broader public attitudes to risk are an important objective.     

Research Review: Risk and protection in the context of services for children in need

The paper summarizes the evidence and provides definitions of risk, protective factors, resilience, coping strategies and need in the context of children in need. Definitions are offered for children in need and children's services. The way in which individual interpretation can alter objective assessment of risk is explored. A method for recording evidence relevant to clinical practice on behalf of children in need is offered. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.     

Black Mayors/White Mayors: Explaining Their Approval

Performance models have been the norm in research on nationaland state executives, but oddly this model has rarely been extendedto the next level of executive office, mayors. The increasingnumber of African American mayors suggests that race may complicatethe performance model of approval at the local level. This researchtests a performance model of mayoral approval that takes racialfactors into account. The model is tested in two white citieswith white mayors and two black cities with black mayors. Performanceis measured by citizen evaluations of a variety of urban conditions,some of which citizens can observe firsthand. Findings indicatethat (1) performance matters in evaluating black and white mayors,and its influence does not seem to be related to the race ofthe mayor; (2) performance has more explanatory power over mayoralapproval than race, a pattern that holds for both black andwhite mayors; (3) race has more impact on the approval of blackmayors than on white mayors; and (4) blacks in black citieshave lower evaluations of local government performance in theircities than blacks in white cities. We conclude that the performancemodel is generalizable to the local level, even with the complicationsof race.     

Consumer awareness and sustainability-focused value orientation as motivating factors of responsible consumer behavior

Consumers are put in the driver seat on the road to a sustainable development. Following a consumer-centric approach, this paper explores the dimensionality and the antecedents of responsible consumption from a psychological perspective. Concerning the dimensionality, the study proposes that responsible consumption should comprise a societal as well as an individual dimension. The data (N = 339) supported this two-dimensional approach, differentiating between societal responsibilities of consumers (doing good) and consumers’ responsibilities for their personal well-being (doing well). Moreover, the results indicate that both consumer awareness and sustainability-focused value orientation have a direct positive influence on responsible consumer behavior. In addition, the hypothesized mediating role of consumer awareness is confirmed, with mediations for societal or personal responsible consumer behavior by the respective consumer awareness dimension. Consequently, it is crucial for organizations to flank their sustainable offers with appropriate communication activities in order to motivate consumers to engage in more responsible consumption.     

Spreading the word ... hospice information systems

The rapid spread of Saunders' thinking across the world has been facilitated by the Hospice Information service and library at St Christopher's Hospice which she helped to create and further enhanced by Help the Hospices. We have set this article in the context of the Web and other information systems as they are developing today. "Connecting people" and "collecting people's experiences" were terms often used by Cicely Saunders when she described the work of Hospice Information, a service that has in some measure contributed to the rapid spread of her thinking across the world and which is currently in close contact with palliative care workers in over 120 countries. Connecting--or networking--putting people and organizations in touch with each other for mutual benefit and collecting and disseminating people's experiences are central to our work as a U.K. and international resource on hospice and palliative care for professionals and the public. Add to these the crucial role of information provision and advocacy for patients, carers, and health professionals alike and we hope that you may begin to appreciate how our respective organizations have contributed to the spread of Cicely Saunders' vision.