Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts

This paper describes the two-sex problem in nuptiality models, focussing on applications in national population forecasts. Requirements for a realistic two-sex marriage model are mentioned, together with additional considerations important in the context of official forecasts. Recent nuptiality models violate the requirements to a certain extent and/or do not meet the additional considerations. A new model, used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands compiled by the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics, is described. When confronted with the requirements and considerations, the CBS-model, although not ideal, is seen to possess relatively good characteristics.     

What is driving increasing child welfare caseloads in Ontario? Analysis of the 1993 and 1998 Ontario incidence studies

Rates of substantiated maltreatment documented by the 1993 and 1998 Ontario Incidence Studies of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect doubled between 1993 and 1998. Although increasing public awareness and changes in investigation procedures appear to account for part of this change, the increase also reflects a significant shift in the types of maltreatment agencies are investigating and substantiating. Exposure to spousal violence has increased eightfold, and the proportion of neglect cases has more than doubled, whereas cases of sexual abuse are decreasing. The field requires a differentiated response to address the maltreatment-specific challenges underlying child welfare caseload increases in Canada.     

Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility

A multivariate ARIMA model is combined with a Gammacurve to predict confidence intervals for age-specificbirth rates by one-year age groups. The method isapplied to observed age-specific births in Norwaybetween 1900 and 1995, and predictive intervals arecomputed for each year up to 2050. The predictedtwo-thirds confidence intervals for Total Fertility(TF) around 2010 agree well with TF errors in oldpopulation forecasts made by Statistics Norway. Themethod gives useful predictions for age-specificfertility up to the years 2020–2030. For later years,the intervals become too wide. Methods which do nottake account of estimation errors in the ARIMA modelcoefficients underestimate the uncertainty for futureTF values. The findings suggest that the marginbetween high and low fertility variants in officialpopulation forecasts for many Western countries aretoo narrow.     

Increasing Research Capacity in Ontario Child Welfare Organizations: A Unique University–Child Welfare Agency Partnership

The objective of this article is to describe the successes and challenges of a unique knowledge mobilization initiative that was funded through the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. This initiative focused on promoting knowledge mobilization by increasing the capacity of child welfare organizations in Ontario to conduct and use research. Building on existing knowledge mobilization models in Ontario, this initiative brought university-based researchers together with child welfare practitioners to use existing data sets from the Ontario Incidence Studies of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect. Overall, this knowledge mobilization initiative resulted in several positive outcomes. Along with the successes, the research team faced several challenges in implementing this initiative, which are described in detail.     

Social scientists as technicians,advisors and meaning producers

In this paper, we are addressing three issues that are at the core of scholarly reflections about the societal role of social science knowledge: (1) Social scientists tend to follow – although this is not always a deliberate choice – one of three models that describe their role as the producers of practical knowledge. For the sake of simplicity we have called the three models the “model of the technician”, the “model of the advisor” and the “model of the meaning producer”. (2) Due to the need for social inquiry to adopt a particular, restrictive perspective of its domain, useful knowledge is a complicated matter. Hence the need to put into question a widely supported notion at least among social scientists: When asked about the reasons for the limited “power” of social science knowledge the response frequently is that the adequacy and practical usefulness of social science knowledge is a function of its capturing the full complexity of what indeed are complex social phenomena. (3) Social scientists often tend to lament the marginal impact their intellectual efforts have on society, and they look with great envy across the divide of the so-called two cultures, wondering how and when they will be able to achieve the same kind of success and prestige the natural sciences and technology appear to enjoy in most societies. However, this unhappy view systematically understates the actual power of social science knowledge, in particular its role as a mind maker or meaning producer.     

Participatory action research in local development: an opportunity for social work

Even if related to the seminal work of Kurt Lewin dating back to 1946, participatory approaches like action research still represent a relevant theoretical and practical set of methodologies for social work and research. In this article, after a brief overview of this methodological approach, the use of this paradigm in social work is explored, with a special focus on the development of symbolic and material resources within local communities. The processes and forms of involvement are examined with regard to the Italian experience of local development. An application of the participatory methodology stemming from a phenomenological approach proposed by Achille Ardigò, a well-known Italian sociologist, is employed. Following these premises, a procedural model enhancing the development of social groups is considered as the building block of community development. Short examples are provided. It is concluded that, in the process of local development, the symbolic and the immaterial dimensions need to be stimulated, as well as the material and the infrastructural ones. In order to achieve this, correct tools are needed.     

European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years

Nowadays, demographers, population statisticians, and population forecasters have richer data, more refined theories of demographic behavior, and more sophisticated methods of analysis than they had two or three decades ago. This scientific progress should have made it easier to predict demographic behavior. But analyses of the errors in older forecasts show that demographic forecasts published by statistical agencies in 14 European countries have not become more accurate over the past 25 years. The findings demonstrate that scientific progress in population studies during the previous two to three decades has not kept up with the trend toward less predictable demographic behavior of populations in European countries. There is no reason to be more optimistic about US Census Bureau forecasts. Population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, hence should be couched in probabilistic terms.     

The European patent system: dealing with emerging technologies

In light of recent controversial patent decisions in biotechnology, this article argues that the current European patent examination and opposition procedures do not suffice to balance the patent system These procedures do not provide sufficient guidance for patent examiners to deal effectively with the emerging life science technologies. The European Patent Office needs to instill more self-reflection into the patent system and foster interaction between the Office and patent stakeholders. In this respect, we propose that the EPO should establish an ex-ante, patent-granting advisory body that would consist of multidisciplinary staff drawn from various technical fields, and collaborate closely with the scientific community and other national bodies. It is expected that such an advisory body would provide an input to the existing patent system, since it would anticipate, control and reduce the possibility that patent examiners would issue low-quality patents with huge socio-economic consequences.