Equal representation in two-tier voting systems

The paper investigates how voting weights should be assigned to differently sized constituencies of an assembly. The one-person, one-vote principle is interpreted as calling for a priori equal indirect influence on decisions. The latter are elements of a one-dimensional convex policy space and may result from strategic behavior consistent with the median voter theorem. Numerous artificial constituency configurations, the EU and the US are investigated by Monte–Carlo simulations. Penrose’s square root rule, which originally applies to preference-free dichotomous decision environments and holds only under very specific conditions, comes close to ensuring equal representation. It is thus more robust than previously suggested.     

A Bayesian approach to Markov modelling in cost-effectiveness analyses: application to taxane use in advanced breast cancer

Summary. The paper demonstrates how cost-effectiveness decision analysis may be implemented from a Bayesian perspective, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods for both the synthesis of relevant evidence input into the model and the evaluation of the model itself. The desirable aspects of a Bayesian approach for this type of analysis include the incorporation of full parameter uncertainty, the ability to perform all the analysis, including each meta-analysis, in a single coherent model and the incorporation of expert opinion either directly or regarding the relative credibility of different data sources. The method is described, and its ease of implementation demonstrated, through a practical example to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer compared with conventional treatment. For completeness, the results from the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model are compared and contrasted with those from a classical Monte Carlo simulation model.     

The Gatekeeping Function of Trust in Cross‐sector Social Partnerships

Hunger and deprivation, lack of education, sanitation, and health care are only a few pressing issues related to poverty in developing countries. Addressing such complex social issues requires pooling complementary resources of the civil, public, and private sector. Over the last decade, stakeholders tried to cocreate innovative solutions in cross‐sector social partnerships (CSSPs) at the base of the economic pyramid (BoP), but collaboration proved to be very challenging. Practitioners become increasingly frustrated with operational differences, intransparency, and mismatched goals in partnerships. This study unravels the black box of collaboration and delivers empirical insights on trust and power in CSSPs based on social exchange theory. Structural equation modeling (SEM) enables us explore relationships beyond case‐based insights. Our rigorous empirical analysis covers 207 interorganizational relationships and outlines a crucial gatekeeping function of trust in CSSPs. Findings provide strong empirical support for conceptual works calling for an “integrative orientation” in CSSPs. Furthermore, we pinpoint the role of intermediates and draw implications for future research.     

The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000

HIV-related sub-fertility has been reported for those populations in sub-Saharan Africa in which contraceptive use is low. We use data from a retrospective survey in rural Zimbabwe and multivariate logistic regression models to show that recent birth rates and current pregnancy rates are also lower among HIV-positive women than among HIV-negative women in those African populations where contraceptive use is high. The fertility reduction is smaller than where contraceptive use is low because age at first sexual intercourse is later and birth rates at older ages are already low. Nevertheless, total fertility is approximately 8.5 per cent lower and HIV-associated sub-fertility may account for as much as one-quarter of fertility decline in Zimbabwe since the late 1980s. Mechanisms for HIV-associated sub-fertility in rural Zimbabwe include more frequent widowhood and divorce, reduced coital frequency, increased amenorrhoea, and possibly, pelvic inflammatory disease. Miscarriage appears to be a less important factor than elsewhere possibly because syphilis is rare.     

Fire and rescue operational effectiveness: the effect of alternative crewing patterns

Abstract

Decreasing demand and reduced budgets are driving changes to traditional crewing methods in the UK Fire and Rescue Service. Using an integration of two years' operational data within a novel framework, this paper assesses the impact of alternative crewing on operational effectiveness in one UK FRS. Changes in crewing patterns were implemented without substantial impact on overall operational effectiveness, but there may be a risk to wider operational resilience. The Overall Effectiveness of Fire Operations (OEFO) assessment tool can inform FRS decision making in an authentic way allowing stakeholder confidence in the outcomes, whilst being timely and not too complex or costly to evaluate. The OEFO approach is an important contribution to practice through its ability to assess public services at a time of challenging reform and demonstrates alterations can be made to crewing patterns to better match demand provided there is consideration of the potential wider impact.     

Creating space to think and feel in child protection social work; a psychodynamic intervention

Professionals working with families in difficulty require a structured space to consider their work. As organisations and the systems within and across them become more sophisticated it seems that less attention is being paid to the emotional and psychological aspects of working with families than to the paperwork and processes that surround the work. Systems psychodynamic theory and the methodical reflective practices it underpins offers a suitable framework in which to consider practicing and researching in this emotionally complex field. This paper describes one aspect of a small doctoral study designed to provide a sustained reflective space (Work Discussion Group) to Irish child protection social workers in order to closely explore the reality of their practice experience. This paper explores one worker’s experience of bringing a written account of her work with a family to the WDG. Findings suggest that her work was undertaken in a climate concerned with efficiency, certainty and the reduction of risk. This climate evoked anxiety and reduced opportunities for reflective and considered practice. The work discussion group provided containment for this worker’s anxiety and allowed her to make sense of this anxiety and its accompanying defences and to move closer to working with this family.     

Always doing your best? Effort and performance in dynamic settings

Theory and Decision - Achieving an ambitious goal frequently requires succeeding in a sequence of intermediate tasks, some being critical for the final outcome, and others not. However, individuals...     

‘Like walking on eggshells’: service user views and expectations of the child protection system

This paper reports on a study of service users' views on Irish child protection services. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 67 service users, including young people between 13 and 23. The findings showed that despite refocusing and public service management reforms, service users still experience involvement with the services as intimidating and stressful and while they acknowledged opportunities to participate in the child protection process, they found the experience to be very difficult. Their definition of ‘needs’ was somewhat at odds with that suggested in official documentation, and they viewed the execution of a child protection plan more as a coercive requirement to comply with ‘tasks’ set by workers than a conjoint effort to enhance their children's welfare. As in previous studies, the data showed how the development of good relationships between workers and service users could compensate for the harsher aspects of involvement with child protection. In addition, this study demonstrated a high level of discernment on the part of service users, highlighting their expectation of quality standards in respect of courtesy, respect, accountability, transparency and practitioner expertise.     

Implementing Consumer Choice in Long‐term Care: The Impact of Individual Budgets on Social Care Providers in England

In common with many advanced welfare states, England has increasingly relied on consumerist principles to deliver both greater quality and improved efficiency in the long‐term care system. The Individual Budget (IB) pilots marked the next step in this process, through a new system of funding whereby greater control of resources is given to service users, in lieu of direct in‐kind care provision. IBs have the potential to transform the market for care services as well as the relationships between key stakeholders within it. Purchasing will increasingly be shaped by the demands of IB holders, with providers expected to deliver a wider range of personalized services. What will this mean for providers, and what can they do to prepare for these changes? These questions are relevant not just in England but in many other countries adopting similar mechanisms for devolving control over the design, delivery and funding of care to the end‐user. The article explores the early impact of IBs on providers' services, on their workforces, and on the administrative implications for providers of managing IBs. The study finds that providers were positive about the opportunities for better‐quality services that IBs can bring about. However, participants highlighted a number of obstacles to their effectiveness, and reported a range of potentially adverse administrative and workforce consequences which have the potential to jeopardize the consumerist policy objectives of increased choice and efficiency.     

A note on empirical likelihoods derived from pairwise score functions

Pairwise likelihood functions are convenient surrogates for the ordinary likelihood, useful when the latter is too difficult or even impractical to compute. One drawback of pairwise likelihood inference is that, for a multidimensional parameter of interest, the pairwise likelihood analogue of the likelihood ratio statistic does not have the standard chi-square asymptotic distribution. Invoking the theory of unbiased estimating functions, this paper proposes and discusses a computationally and theoretically attractive approach based on the derivation of empirical likelihood functions from the pairwise scores. This approach produces alternatives to the pairwise likelihood ratio statistic, which allow reference to the usual asymptotic chi-square distribution and which are useful when the elements of the Godambe information are troublesome to evaluate or in the presence of large data sets with relative small sample sizes. Two Monte Carlo studies are performed in order to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed empirical pairwise likelihoods.