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201.
Lindley's measure of experimental information is utilized to determine the optimal sample-size that is required to obtain a prescribed level of accuracy about the parameter of a binomial distribution. The measure is expressed through its approximate limiting relationship to the posterior variance of the parameter, and a simple application of the methodology is presented. 相似文献
202.
The Precautionary Principle has provided the foundations for building a new risk regulatory pattern under scientific uncertainty. This paper investigates how classical economic theory may, or may not, justify the Precautionary Principle. It examines the link between irreversibility, the prospect of increasing information over time and risk management. In doing so, it brings closer the notion of option value to that of precaution. Using a general modelling framework, it identifies the conditions so that the Precautionary Principle is an efficient economic guideline. It also explains why precautionary policies are not likely to emerge in a competitive economy or in the presence of a global pollution problem. 相似文献
203.
Socio‐Emotional Context and Adolescents' Decision Making: The Experience of Regret and Relief After Social Comparison 下载免费PDF全文
Marianne Habib Grégoire Borst Nicolas Poirel Olivier Houdé Sylvain Moutier Mathieu Cassotti 《Journal of research on adolescence》2015,25(1):81-91
Many studies indicate that adolescents are hypersensitive to rewards in salient socio‐emotional contexts. However, little is known about adolescents' sensitivity to complex negative emotions. To study the development of the ability to experience regret and relief, children, adolescents, and young adults performed a gambling task in a socio‐emotional context of competition, in which they were informed that their outcome would be compared with that of a competitor. The context of competition impacted the feelings of regret and relief in adolescents. When adolescents experienced an initial negative outcome, their feeling of relief was reinforced. However, they did not seem to experience regret in the social context of competition. These results provide a possible explanation for adolescents' enhanced risk seeking. 相似文献
204.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - This paper introduces the Prince incentive system for measuring preferences. Prince combines the tractability of direct matching, allowing for the precise and... 相似文献
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ABSTRACTWe study estimation and inference when there are multiple values (“matches”) for the explanatory variables and only one of the matches is the correct one. This problem arises often when two datasets are linked together on the basis of information that does not uniquely identify regressor values. We offer a set of two intuitive conditions that ensure consistent inference using the average of the possible matches in a linear framework. The first condition is the exogeneity of the false match with respect to the regression error. The second condition is a notion of exchangeability between the true and false matches. Conditioning on the observed data, the probability that each match is correct is completely unrestricted. We perform a Monte Carlo study to investigate the estimator’s finite-sample performance relative to others proposed in the literature. Finally, we provide an empirical example revisiting a main area of application: the measurement of intergenerational elasticities in income. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. 相似文献
208.
Nicolas Grosjean 《随机性模型》2018,34(1):1-24
Coalescence processes have received a lot of attention in the context of conditional branching processes with fixed population size and non-overlapping generations. Here, we focus on similar problems in the context of the standard unconditional Bienaymé–Galton–Watson branching processes, either (sub)-critical or supercritical. Using an analytical tool, we derive the structure of some counting aspects of the ancestral genealogy of such processes, including: the transition matrix of the ancestral count process and an integral representation of various coalescence times distributions, such as the time to most recent common ancestor of a random sample of arbitrary size, including full size. We illustrate our results on two important examples of branching mechanisms displaying either finite or infinite reproduction mean, their main interest being to offer a closed form expression for their probability generating functions at all times. Large time behaviors are investigated. 相似文献
209.
Philippe Aghion Philippe Askenazy Nicolas Berman Gilbert Cette Laurent Eymard 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2012,10(5):1001-1024
We use a French firm‐level data set containing 13,000 firms over the period 1994–2004 to analyze the relationship between credit constraints and firms’ R&D behavior over the business cycle. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) R&D investment is countercyclical without credit constraints, but it becomes procyclical as firms face tighter credit constraints; (ii) this result is only observed for firms in sectors that depend more heavily upon external finance, or that are characterized by a low degree of asset tangibility; (iii) in more credit‐constrained firms, R&D investment plummets during recessions but does not increase proportionally during upturns. 相似文献