Towards a socio-oecotechnology

The paper will attempt to demonstrate that within the broad ambit of the socio-technical model there is scope for development and for a degree of innovation. Two aspects of the model will be progressed and to some extent integrated. Firstly, I will argue that the joint optimisation (JtO) concept has not been elaborated and emphasised as much as it deserves and it needs to be sharply differentiated from the widely used notion of maximisation. Secondly, using JtO, I will extend the two system socio-technical model to a troika model by including the impact of technology on the oecological environment.¹ To obtain the best overall results, JtO has to be achieved between three systems: the social, the technical and the oecological. In this way, the extended model will engage with the public’s rapidly growing awareness of environmental hazards for which it frequently blames technologies. This extension also raises the socio-technical model from the micro- to the meso- and macro-level which was always the intention of the early pioneers. These theoretical developments will be treated heuristically and briefly illustrated by two case examples from recent research.     

Effects of Etiological Agent and Bather Shedding of Pathogens on Interpretation of Epidemiological Data Used to Establish Recreational Water Quality Standards

The overall goal of the study reported herein was to use techniques in the field of risk assessment (specifically a state-space population dynamic model of disease transmission within recreational waters) to explore the relative significance of (1) active shedding of microorganisms from bathers themselves, and (2) the type and concentration of etiological agent on the observed heterogeneity of the incidence of illness in epidemiological studies that have been used to develop ambient water quality criteria. The etiological agent and corresponding dose ingested during recreational contact was found to significantly impact the observed incidence of illness in an epidemiological study conducted in recreational water. In addition, the observed incidence of illness was found not to necessarily reflect background concentrations of indicator organisms, but rather microorganisms shed during recreational contact. Future revisions to ambient water quality criteria should address the etiological agent, dose, and the significance of microbial shedding relative to background concentrations of pathogens and indicator organisms in addition to the incidence of illness and concentration of indicator organisms. Without a quantitative assessment of these additional variables, study findings may potentially be site specific and not representative of the health risks associated with specific indicator concentrations in all recreational waters.     

Changes in the Transition to Adulthood in Less Developed Countries

Over the past century, there have been significant changes in the prevalence, density, and complexity of transitions to adulthood in the United States and Europe. Analyses of change in less developed countries have largely focused on one or two transitions in isolation. This article examines whether recent increases in female school participation, the timing of marriage, and socio-economic changes in Africa and Latin America have influenced the timing and pattern of the entire transition to adulthood. Using data from countries with Demographic and Health Surveys 12–15 years apart, we analyze how the distribution of status combinations (education, employment, marriage, and childbearing) has changed over this period for women aged 15–30. Heterogeneity analysis is used to describe the changes in the complexity of status combinations. Although we find little change in transition complexity for women older than 20, there is evidence for shifts in the distribution of status combinations at any given age.     

Robust stochastic dominance: A semi-parametric approach

Lorenz curves and second-order dominance criteria, the fundamental tools for stochastic dominance, are known to be sensitive to data contamination in the tails of the distribution. We propose two ways of dealing with the problem: (1) Estimate Lorenz curves using parametric models and (2) combine empirical estimation with a parametric (robust) estimation of the upper tail of the distribution using the Pareto model. Approach (2) is preferred because of its flexibility. Using simulations we show the dramatic effect of a few contaminated data on the Lorenz ranking and the performance of the robust semi-parametric approach (2). Since estimation is only a first step for statistical inference and since semi-parametric models are not straightforward to handle, we also derive asymptotic covariance matrices for our semi-parametric estimators.     

Reproducibility of clinical data II: categorical outcomes

In this second part of this paper, reproducibility of discrete ordinal and nominal outcomes is addressed. The first part deals with continuous outcomes, concentrating on intraclass correlation (ρ) in the context of one‐way analysis of variance. For categorical data, the focus has generally not been on a meaningful population parameter such as ρ. However, intraclass correlation has been defined for discrete ordinal data, ρ_c, and for nominal data, κ_I. Therefore, a unified approach to reproducibility is proposed. The relevance of these parameters is outlined. Estimation and inferential procedures for ρ_c and κ_I are reviewed, together with worked examples. Topics related to reproducibility that are not addressed in either this or the previous paper are highlighted. Considerations for designing reproducibility studies and for interpreting their results are provided. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Racial differences in contraceptive choice: Complexity and implications

Previous research has failed to generate consensus about why black fertility has persistently exceeded that of whites in the United States. In an effort to shed light on this question, this article examines black/white differences in sociodemographic factors affecting contraceptive choice. Using data from the 1976 and 1982 National Surveys of Family Growth, we find a complex pattern of black/white differences. Not only does contraceptive choice vary by race, but the effects of such variables as age, marital status, and education also differ between blacks and whites. For example, compared with whites, black married women avoid coital methods, and compared with blacks, white women shift contraceptive behavior more as they change marital status. The complex nature of the racial differences in contraceptive choice are interpreted as reflecting differences in marriage patterns and trends.     

Transformative Processes in Marriage: An Analysis of Emerging Trends

The study of conflict has dominated psychological research on marriage. This article documents its move from center stage, outlining how a broader canvas accommodates a richer picture of marriage. A brief sampling of new constructs such as forgiveness and sacrifice points to an organizing theme of transformative processes in emerging marital research. The implications of marital transformations are explored including spontaneous remission of distress, nonlinear dynamic systems that may produce unexpected and discontinuous change, possible nonarbitrary definitions of marital discord, and the potential for developing other constructs related to self‐transformation in marital research.