Conflict analysis of an export credit trade dispute

The improved metagame analysis algorithm is employed to study an international trade dispute involving government subsidised export credits. In particular, the methodology is applied to a conflict over the awarding of a large contract to supply subway cars by New York City. Logically feasible resolutions to the dispute are highlighted and the possible role of strategic deception in the awarding of the contract is investigated.     

Checkered Expectations: Predictors of Approval of Opening a Casino in the Niagara Community

This paper reports on the findings of a survey prior to the opening of a casino in Niagara Falls, Ontario (N= 1002 adults) on approval of the casino, expectations regarding the impact of the casino, attitudes toward gambling, gambling behaviour, and demographic information. The respondents generally had a positive attitude towards gambling. The expectations of community impact clustered into 3 factors: negative social consequences (crimes, addiction), negative environmental consequences (litter, noise, traffic), and positive economic consequences (jobs, stores, income). The majority of respondents expected economic benefits from the casino as well as a decrease in the environmental quality of the city. Expectations regarding social problems were mixed with a majority expecting an increase in serious crimes, but only a minority expecting an increase in people on welfare. Covariance structure modelling revealed that a positive attitude towards gambling and expecting economic benefits were positively related to approval of the casino, and expecting social problems was negatively related to approval. Given that more than seven in ten respondents supported the opening of the casino, the expected economic benefits coupled with a generally positive attitude towards gambling, apparently outweighed concerns about problems associated with gambling.     

Social Construction and Policy Implementation: Inmate Health as a Public Health Issue*

Objectives. This article develops and tests a concise multi‐stage approach for assessing the impact of social construction on the implementation of public programs designed to benefit negatively constructed groups. The framework suggests that negative constructions lead to policy choices that create problems in the implementation process. These problems prevent the accomplishment of key subobjectives necessary for ultimate program success. Methods. We test the utility of the framework in an analysis of a key public health issue—the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in prisons. Despite great strides in the treatment and prevention of these diseases outside prison walls, the incidence and severity of both in the incarcerated population has increased dramatically over the last five years. We hypothesize that the problem of inadequate funding, arising from the negative social construction of this unique target population, is to blame. Results. In an analysis of 50 state correctional systems, we find that states with the most negative constructions of criminals and potential criminals spend dramatically less on inmate health, relative to other states. Conclusions. Our analysis suggests that inadequate funding levels in states with negative constructions of criminals and potential criminals jeopardizes the implementation of prison programs targeted at the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis.     

Predicting group consciousness among Asian Americans: Considering commonalities,shared interests,panethnic group identification,and linked fate

Identifying factors linked to the development of group consciousness is important toward bettering our understanding of group formation processes among marginalized ethnoracial groups. This study examines predictors of group consciousness among Asians and Asian Americans in the United States, focusing on numerous dimensions of this concept, including linked fate, panethnic group identification, and four specific sources of perceived group commonality and interests: (1) cultural, (2) economic, (3) political, and (4) racial. We use data from a national survey to examine socio-structural, political, discrimination, and immigration correlates associated with separate dimensions of Asian group consciousness. We found that perceiving interpersonal discrimination increased the importance of being Asian; heightened the odds of feeling linked fate with other Asian people; and enhanced the odds of identification as “Asian American.” Republicans and Independents were less likely to perceive different elements of Asian group consciousness compared to Democrats. Educational attainment, income, gender, employment status, ethnicity, and English-speaking comfortability had varying effects across certain measures of Asian group consciousness. For Asians and Asian Americans, interpersonal discrimination and certain socio-structural, political, and immigration factors may be especially meaningful toward the development of linked fate, shared group interests and commonalities, and panethnic identification, all of which are key toward activating group consciousness.     

Should the two-trial paradigm still be the gold standard in drug assessment?

Two significant pivotal trials are usually required for a new drug approval by a regulatory agency. This standard requirement is known as the two-trial paradigm. However, several authors have questioned why we need exactly two pivotal trials, what statistical error the regulators are trying to protect against, and potential alternative approaches. Therefore, it is important to investigate these questions to better understand the regulatory decision-making in the assessment of drugs' effectiveness. It is common that two identically designed trials are run solely to adhere to the two-trial rule. Previous work showed that combining the data from the two trials into a single trial (one-trial paradigm) would increase the power while ensuring the same level of type I error protection as the two-trial paradigm. However, this is true only under a specific scenario and there is little investigation on the type I error protection over the whole null region. In this article, we compare the two paradigms by considering scenarios in which the two trials are conducted in identical or different populations as well as with equal or unequal size. With identical populations, the results show that a single trial provides better type I error protection and higher power. Conversely, with different populations, although the one-trial rule is more powerful in some cases, it does not always protect against the type I error. Hence, there is the need for appropriate flexibility around the two-trial paradigm and the appropriate approach should be chosen based on the questions we are interested in.