The current state of social work in UK universities: Some personal reflections

This paper reviews and critically analyses the current state of social work, as a discipline, in UK universities. While there are many causes for concern in terms of the decline in student applications, the way the subject has established itself in recent years as being distinctive, having a clear rationale and a sound research base is very encouraging and provides a firm basis for future development.     

Slippery discrimination: a review of the drivers of migrant and minority housing disadvantage

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to identify housing disadvantages faced by migrants and ethnic minorities; the legal, policy and market forces that shape them; how they have developed over time; how they are manifest nationally and locally; and how they are being responded to locally by those concerned with mitigating them. The paper thereby intends to provide a foundation to inform future research and policy and to engage with local actors to develop ways of overcoming migrant housing disadvantage and challenging discrimination. The paper finds that the interplay of legal changes, which have increasingly differentiated migrants since the 1940s, and shifting housing markets, has driven exclusion of migrants and minorities such that considerable disadvantage is revealed by analysis of census data. However, attention to local specificity provides evidence of positive responses. Examples are presented in relation to access to affordable housing, enactment of homelessness duties and community actions. Methodologically, this paper highlights the importance of simultaneous consideration of migration and ethnicity as markers of difference and exclusion, and the potential of co-production approaches for socially meaningful research concerned with inequalities.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting the functional consequences of amino-acid polymorphisms

Summary.  Genetic polymorphisms in deoxyribonucleic acid coding regions may have a phenotypic effect on the carrier, e.g. by influencing susceptibility to disease. Detection of deleterious mutations via association studies is hampered by the large number of candidate sites; therefore methods are needed to narrow down the search to the most promising sites. For this, a possible approach is to use structural and sequence-based information of the encoded protein to predict whether a mutation at a particular site is likely to disrupt the functionality of the protein itself. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) model for supervised learning in this context and assess its predictive performance by using data from mutagenesis experiments on lac repressor and lysozyme proteins. In these experiments, about 12 amino-acid substitutions were performed at each native amino-acid position and the effect on protein functionality was assessed. The training data thus consist of repeated observations at each position, which the hierarchical framework is needed to account for. The model is trained on the lac repressor data and tested on the lysozyme mutations and vice versa. In particular, we show that the hierarchical BMARS model, by allowing for the clustered nature of the data, yields lower out-of-sample misclassification rates compared with both a BMARS and a frequen-tist MARS model, a support vector machine classifier and an optimally pruned classification tree.     

Decision‐making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase II clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase II trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will have standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi‐drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

From Kolkhoz to Holding Company: a Hungarian Agricultural Producer Co-operative in Transition

This paper uses a case study, the Noble Grape co-operative (a pseudonym), to illustrate the roles of social and cultural capital in both the creation of a successful agricultural producer co-operative (collective farm) in socialist Hungary and its transformation into a successful private company after 1989. It identifies both continuities in personnel, from socialist technocrat to capitalist manager, and continuities in the financial establishment with which it deals. The social origins of the key players in the transformation are compared with the existing sociological literature on changing elites in Eastern Europe, and the fate of the ordinary members who appear to be the losers in the process.     

New Zealand Vietnam Veterans’ Family Programme,Nga Whanau a Tu (Families of War): Development and Outcome

This article reviews recent research concerned with the association between combat-related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and interpersonal functioning, before describing the development of a pilot program established to provide mental health services for Vietnam veteran family members. The results of a brief program evaluation are also presented. Sixty clients provided posttreatment and six-month follow-up data on a variety of outcome measures which were compared with independent ratings returned by 33 therapists. On average, clients reported that counselling had been beneficial and indicated satisfaction with services received. However, at posttest, therapists indicated that approximately 50% of clients were in need of continued treatment. There was a decrease in satisfaction with services over the posttest-follow-up period, but no change on most measures of psychotherapy outcome.     

Doubling vs. Constant Bets as Strategies for Gambling

Some gamblers use a doubling strategy as a way of improving their chances of coming home a winner. This paper reports on the results of a computer simulation study of the doubling strategy and compares the short term and long term results of doubling to gambling with a constant sized bet. In the short term players using a doubling strategy were more likely to win, then lose, however in the long term, the losses suffered by doublers were much greater than that suffered by constant bettors. It is argued that the use of a doubling strategy is related to an incomplete conceptualization of random events sometimes known as the law of averages. A second simulation examined the fate of doubling in an ideal world in which the law of averages was actually true. In this ideal world, doublers were much better off than constant bettors. The relationship of the results to a naive conceptualization of random events is discussed.