Environmental Tobacco Smoke Revisited: The Reliability of the Data Used for Risk Assessment

Several epidemiological studies have found a weak, but consistent association between lung cancer in nonsmokers and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). In addition, a purported link between such exposure and coronary heart disease (CHD) has been of major concern. Although it is biologically plausible that ETS has a contributory role in the induction of lung cancer in nonsmoking individuals, dose-response extrapolation-supported by the more solid database for active smokers-gives an additional risk for lung cancer risk that is more than one order of magnitude lower than that indicated by major positive epidemiological studies. The discrepancy between available epidemiological data and dosimetric estimates seems, to a major part, to reflect certain systematic biases in the former that are difficult to control by statistical analysis when dealing with risks of such low magnitudes. These include, most importantly, misclassification of smoking status, followed by inappropriate selection of controls, as well as certain confounding factors mainly related to lifestyle, and possibly also hereditary disposition. A significant part of an association between lung cancer and exposure to ETS would disappear, if, on the average, 1 patient out of 20 nonsmoking cases had failed to tell the interviewer that he had, in fact, recently stopped smoking. In the large International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) multicenter study even lower misclassification rates would abolish the weak, statistically nonsignificant associations that were found. In the former study an apparent significant protective effect from exposure to ETS in childhood with respect to lung cancer later in life was reported, a most surprising finding. The fact that the mutation spectrum of the p53 tumor suppressor gene in lung tumors of ETS-exposed nonsmokers generally differs from that found in tumors of active smokers lends additional support to the notion that the majority of tumors found in ETS-exposed nonsmokers have nothing to do with tobacco smoke. The one-sided preoccupation with ETS as a causative factor of lung cancer in nonsmokers may seriously hinder the elucidation of the multifactorial etiology of these tumors. Due to the high prevalence of cardiovascular disease in the population, even a modest causal association with ETS would, if valid, constitute a serious public health problem. By pooling data from 20 published studies on ETS and heart disease, some of which reported higher risks than is known to be caused by active smoking, a statistically significant association with spousal smoking is obtained. However, in most of these studies, many of the most common confounding risk factors were ignored and there appears to be insufficient evidence to support an association between exposure to ETS and CHD. Further, it seems highly improbable that exposure to a concentration of tobacco smoke at a level that is generally much less than 1% of that inhaled by a smoker could result in an excess risk for CHD that-as has been claimed-is some 30% to 50% of that found in active smokers. There are certainly valid reasons to limit exposure to ETS as well as to other air pollutants in places such as offices and homes in order to improve indoor air quality. This goal can be achieved, however, without the introduction of an extremist legislation based on a negligible risk of lung cancer as well as an unsupported and highly hypothetical risk for CHD.     

Service tasks of board of directors: A literature review and research agenda in an era of new governance practices

In their seminal review article on board of directors, Johnson, Daily, and Ellstrand (1996) distinguished between the control, service, and resource dependence tasks of the board and called for a stronger focus on board service tasks. Following this call, service tasks of boards have been subject to increased scholarly attention, with new theoretical perspectives and methods introduced. This paper aims at presenting the current state of research on board service tasks, departing from, and building on, the contribution of Johnson and colleagues. In doing so, we employ an Input-Process-Output-Context framework and craft an agenda for how future research could accommodate new governance practices and progress the field. Our review is relevant and timely as studies on the subject are gaining traction both in corporate governance and general management journals. Furthermore, our review on board service tasks proposes new alternative approaches to studying corporate governance which are especially appropriate in times in which a rethink of corporate governance frameworks and concepts is urgently needed.     

论以校训引领高职校园文化

高职校园文化涵盖了学校的物质文化、精神文化、制度文化,是学校学生和教师共同奋斗的成果,是学校蓬勃发展的基础。而校训,是高职院校校园文化的灵魂所在,校训的制定,为高职院校树立了优良的校风,引领着高职院校的校园文化。同时,校训能够体现出高职院校的办学思想、教学理念、育人方向、培养目标,对高职学校办学行为起到了规范的作用。     

从《海的女儿》探究安徒生悲剧童话的价值

本文试着通过联系安徒生的人生经历和亚里士多德的悲剧理论,分析安徒生童话的悲剧价值。     

论杜运燮诗歌的价值取向

杜运燮是九叶诗派的重要诗人,他的作品以揭示现实的负面因素或对其给予讽刺作为主要手段,但这只是他的诗歌艺术特征的一个方面。诗人所要表达的更是生命的理想与渴望,他通过多种艺术手段揭示现实与生命中的负面因素,是希望表达自己所感受和期待的生命的真实与本质,从而引导生命与现实朝着健康、理想的方向发展。     

Approximate Bayesian Inference for Survival Models

Abstract. Bayesian analysis of time‐to‐event data, usually called survival analysis, has received increasing attention in the last years. In Cox‐type models it allows to use information from the full likelihood instead of from a partial likelihood, so that the baseline hazard function and the model parameters can be jointly estimated. In general, Bayesian methods permit a full and exact posterior inference for any parameter or predictive quantity of interest. On the other side, Bayesian inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques which, from the user point of view, may appear slow at delivering answers. In this article, we show how a new inferential tool named integrated nested Laplace approximations can be adapted and applied to many survival models making Bayesian analysis both fast and accurate without having to rely on MCMC‐based inference.     

Organizational persistence in the use of war gaming and scenario planning

Even though war gaming and scenario planning are widely used in business contexts, there is little evidence that either practice is associated with superior performance. Why, then, spend the costs? In this paper we address this puzzle and suggest why the extant empirical findings have so far proven limited. We consider the development of these practices and find that they have a substantially entangled and overlapping history, particularly at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. Despite shared historical roots, the treatment of war gaming and scenario planning in the scholarly literature branched out into different streams. This separation is unfortunate because it obscures a better understanding of the premises under which these practices are effective. We propose an analysis of the overlaps and contrasts of war gaming and scenario planning that sets out clear boundary conditions for their use and efficacy. We find that each practice is tailored to provide strategic guidance in a context where the organization is facing different forms of uncertainty. This suggests they may be effective, and thus improve organizational performance, where the relevant uncertainties are operative. Such benefits would be apparent over longer time scales, and only if the relevant boundary conditions are met. However, to the best of our knowledge, no longitudinal empirical test of either war gaming or scenario planning is available. We therefore conclude that more research is needed to ascertain the true relationship between these popular practices and their performance outcomes.     

Vocational or academic track? Study and career plans among Swedish students living in rural areas

This ethnographic study explores how rural lower secondary school students reflect on study and career choices, focusing on the choice between vocational and academic upper secondary programs. Applying a spatial perspective, we analyze individual students’ reflections about study and career choices within a variety of rural regions, and compare patterns in the regions. The results indicate complex interactions between structural factors and individual dispositions. In places where education levels were low and the local labor market predominantly offered unskilled manual and service work, there was a stronger tendency to choose vocational programs than in places with higher education levels and access to a more varied labor market. Likewise, there was an association between strongly gendered labor markets and gender-typical choices. However, individual students positioned themselves actively in relation to the local place, its local labor market and social relations; their choices were place-bound to varying degrees, and chose upper secondary programs and presented ideas about prospective careers that were harmonious with the local labor market in some cases, but discordant in other cases. The results are discussed in the framework of individuals’ horizon for actions.     

The Long Road: Rural Youth,Farming and Agroecological Formación in Central America

Across the globe, the countryside faces the “generation problem”: Who will grow food when the current generation of aging small farmers and peasants disappears? A combination of objective and subjective factors effectively discourages young people from assuming the continuity of peasant and family farming, especially in countries that have experienced significant neoliberal dismantling of rural infrastructure and education. Rural social movements are increasingly building educational processes linked with small-scale, ecological farming in the hopes of reinforcing the development of identities and skills for peasant futures and cadre in the struggle for popular land reform, agroecology, and food sovereignty.     

Muslims Opposing Violent Radicalism and Extremism: Strategies of Swedish Sufi Communities

Europe has seen the development of a new research agenda in response to Islamist terror attacks of recent years. Researchers are not only trying to solve the “radicalization puzzle” in order to understand the reasons why young Muslims in Western countries are attracted to extremism, but they are also making proposals for de-radicalizing extremists and creating relationships of trust with Muslim communities. Directly or indirectly, Europe’s Muslim minorities are the objects of the interventions and preventive work under discussion. This study suggests an alternative approach. Rather than regarding Muslims in Europe as more or less passive objects of various anti-extremism interventions, it directs attention toward the strategies developed by European Muslims themselves in fighting Islamist extremism. Using qualitative interviews with leaders of five Sufi communities in Sweden, the study examines a series of strategies for meeting the challenges posed by extremists.