论杜运燮诗歌的价值取向

杜运燮是九叶诗派的重要诗人,他的作品以揭示现实的负面因素或对其给予讽刺作为主要手段,但这只是他的诗歌艺术特征的一个方面。诗人所要表达的更是生命的理想与渴望,他通过多种艺术手段揭示现实与生命中的负面因素,是希望表达自己所感受和期待的生命的真实与本质,从而引导生命与现实朝着健康、理想的方向发展。     

Approximate Bayesian Inference for Survival Models

Abstract. Bayesian analysis of time‐to‐event data, usually called survival analysis, has received increasing attention in the last years. In Cox‐type models it allows to use information from the full likelihood instead of from a partial likelihood, so that the baseline hazard function and the model parameters can be jointly estimated. In general, Bayesian methods permit a full and exact posterior inference for any parameter or predictive quantity of interest. On the other side, Bayesian inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques which, from the user point of view, may appear slow at delivering answers. In this article, we show how a new inferential tool named integrated nested Laplace approximations can be adapted and applied to many survival models making Bayesian analysis both fast and accurate without having to rely on MCMC‐based inference.     

Organizational persistence in the use of war gaming and scenario planning

Even though war gaming and scenario planning are widely used in business contexts, there is little evidence that either practice is associated with superior performance. Why, then, spend the costs? In this paper we address this puzzle and suggest why the extant empirical findings have so far proven limited. We consider the development of these practices and find that they have a substantially entangled and overlapping history, particularly at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. Despite shared historical roots, the treatment of war gaming and scenario planning in the scholarly literature branched out into different streams. This separation is unfortunate because it obscures a better understanding of the premises under which these practices are effective. We propose an analysis of the overlaps and contrasts of war gaming and scenario planning that sets out clear boundary conditions for their use and efficacy. We find that each practice is tailored to provide strategic guidance in a context where the organization is facing different forms of uncertainty. This suggests they may be effective, and thus improve organizational performance, where the relevant uncertainties are operative. Such benefits would be apparent over longer time scales, and only if the relevant boundary conditions are met. However, to the best of our knowledge, no longitudinal empirical test of either war gaming or scenario planning is available. We therefore conclude that more research is needed to ascertain the true relationship between these popular practices and their performance outcomes.     

Vocational or academic track? Study and career plans among Swedish students living in rural areas

This ethnographic study explores how rural lower secondary school students reflect on study and career choices, focusing on the choice between vocational and academic upper secondary programs. Applying a spatial perspective, we analyze individual students’ reflections about study and career choices within a variety of rural regions, and compare patterns in the regions. The results indicate complex interactions between structural factors and individual dispositions. In places where education levels were low and the local labor market predominantly offered unskilled manual and service work, there was a stronger tendency to choose vocational programs than in places with higher education levels and access to a more varied labor market. Likewise, there was an association between strongly gendered labor markets and gender-typical choices. However, individual students positioned themselves actively in relation to the local place, its local labor market and social relations; their choices were place-bound to varying degrees, and chose upper secondary programs and presented ideas about prospective careers that were harmonious with the local labor market in some cases, but discordant in other cases. The results are discussed in the framework of individuals’ horizon for actions.     

The Long Road: Rural Youth,Farming and Agroecological Formación in Central America

Across the globe, the countryside faces the “generation problem”: Who will grow food when the current generation of aging small farmers and peasants disappears? A combination of objective and subjective factors effectively discourages young people from assuming the continuity of peasant and family farming, especially in countries that have experienced significant neoliberal dismantling of rural infrastructure and education. Rural social movements are increasingly building educational processes linked with small-scale, ecological farming in the hopes of reinforcing the development of identities and skills for peasant futures and cadre in the struggle for popular land reform, agroecology, and food sovereignty.     

Muslims Opposing Violent Radicalism and Extremism: Strategies of Swedish Sufi Communities

Europe has seen the development of a new research agenda in response to Islamist terror attacks of recent years. Researchers are not only trying to solve the “radicalization puzzle” in order to understand the reasons why young Muslims in Western countries are attracted to extremism, but they are also making proposals for de-radicalizing extremists and creating relationships of trust with Muslim communities. Directly or indirectly, Europe’s Muslim minorities are the objects of the interventions and preventive work under discussion. This study suggests an alternative approach. Rather than regarding Muslims in Europe as more or less passive objects of various anti-extremism interventions, it directs attention toward the strategies developed by European Muslims themselves in fighting Islamist extremism. Using qualitative interviews with leaders of five Sufi communities in Sweden, the study examines a series of strategies for meeting the challenges posed by extremists.     

苏联中亚加盟共和国走向独立的原因及影响

本文从中亚各国与俄罗斯历史关系、十月革命与中亚各国、苏联时期的民族政策、民族分离主义的产生和宗教极端主义的作用等方面 ,探讨了苏联时期中亚加盟共和国向分裂演变的主要原因 ,并就中亚各加盟共和国独立后对周边国家 ,特别是伊斯兰国家的影响提出看法 ,有助于正确认识社会主义国家边疆民族地区的特点及发展趋势。     

论以校训引领高职校园文化

高职校园文化涵盖了学校的物质文化、精神文化、制度文化,是学校学生和教师共同奋斗的成果,是学校蓬勃发展的基础。而校训,是高职院校校园文化的灵魂所在,校训的制定,为高职院校树立了优良的校风,引领着高职院校的校园文化。同时,校训能够体现出高职院校的办学思想、教学理念、育人方向、培养目标,对高职学校办学行为起到了规范的作用。     

论国际金融学学科体系

国际金融学是从货币金融角度研究开放经济下内外均衡同时实现问题的一门独立学科。内外均衡是在经济开放条件下面临的两个主要目标 ,这两者常常存在相互冲突的现象 ,因此 ,如何确定开放经济的内外均衡目标并进而同时实现它们 ,构成了国际金融学的主要研究对象。国际金融学具有综合性、宏观性、政策导向性等特点。如何同时实现内外均衡 ?它构成国际金融学形成、发展的主线索 ,依此可以将国际金融学的学科历史划分为三个阶段。根据上述观点 ,我们对国际金融学学科体系及教材进行了相应的全面创新     

21世纪河南旅游业的改革与创新

河南旅游业的改革与创新是知识经济和“入世”的双重需求 ,是河南旅游业发展的现实要求 ,是“旅游新时代”所需 ;对其改革与创新要从旅游观念、资源开发模式、旅游产品品牌优化、政府的主导功能、宣传促销、旅游商品的创新化设计、企业运行机制等方面进行。