The Rhetoric of Organizational Change

This study is a discussion of change strategies:the contextual aspects of change and the rhetoric ofchange. Change is analyzed along two dimensions: (1) thecontext of the change initiative in the organization, (2) the relations of the change project to theinstitutional environment. Four cases are used asexamples of inducing change in municipal services. Thefour cases are part of a national reform project. In Norway, municipalities are importantinstitutions both as arenas for political decisions butalso as decentralized instruments for distributing localservices. The main purpose of the reform project was to achieve better adjusted services throughmore interdisciplinary work and local responsibility.Change efforts may be forced on the organization, e.g.,by laws, instructions, and frame budgets or they may be triggered by different voluntarymechanisms. The idea of isomorphismdescribes a passive or incremental adaptation tosignals and from structure imposed by theenvironment. The idea of eruptive change implies enactmentand entrepreneurship in relation to the environmentbased on signals from within. The contexts for change atdifferent levels in the municipality are associated with different rhetorics. Context variablesdescribe the situation or background on which the changeinitiatives are interpreted by the institutional actors.The rhetoric of change is the symbolic expression which defines the change process.     

Documenting the quick and the dead: a study of suicide case files in a coroner's office

In keeping with recent critiques of literature on the body and the life course, the argument of this paper is that social identities can, to a certain extent, be constructed post‐mortem and in the absence of a living body. The authors make this case with reference to a sociological autopsy study of a hundred suicide case files in a coroner's office in a medium‐sized British city. The research draws on ethnographic approaches to the study of documents. There is discussion of some of the diverse artefacts in the coroners' files: medical reports, witness statements and suicide notes. The identity work revealed in these sources is as much about the living as the dead and is especially bound up in the process of avoiding blame.     

Frontiers in population ecology of microtine rodents: A pluralistic approach to the study of population ecology

Current challenges for the study of population ecology of microtine rodents are reviewed. Comparisons with other taxonomic groups (other mammals, birds and insects) are given throughout. A major challenge is to link patterns and processes (i.e. mechanisms) better than is the case today. Other major challenges include the furthering of our understanding of the interaction between deterministic and stochastic processes, and as part thereof, the interaction between density-dependent and density-independent processes. The applicability of comparative studies on populations exhibiting different temporal dynamical patterns is, in this connection, emphasized. Understanding spatiotemporal dynamical patterns is another major challenge, not the least from a methodological point of view. Long-term and large-scale ecological data on population dynamics (in space and time) are critical for this purpose. Looking for consistency between hypothesized mechanisms and observed patterns is emphasized as a good platform for further empirical and theoretical work. The intellectual feedback process between different approaches to the study of microtine population ecology (observational studies, experimental manipulative studies, statistical modeling and mathematical modeling) are discussed. We recommend a pluralistic approach (involving both observational and experimental as well as theoretical studies) to the study of small rodent ecology.     

Mapping the regional transition to cyclicity inClethrionomys rufocanus: Spectral densities and functional data analysis

We study the regional transitions in dynamics of the gray-sided vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus, within Hokkaido, Japan. The data-set consists of 225 time series of varying length (most from 23 to 31 years long) collected between 1962 and 1992 by the Forestry Agency of the Japanese Government. To see clearly how the periodic behavior changes geographically, we estimate the spectral density functions of the growth rates of all populations using a log-spline method. We subsequently apply functional data analysis to the estimated densities. The functional data analysis is, in this context, analogous to a principal component analysis applied to curves. We plot the results of the analysis on the map of Hokkaido, to reveal a clear transition from relatively stable populations in the southwest and west to populations undergoing 3–4 year cycles in the northeast and east. The degree of seasonality in the vegetation and the rodent demography appear to be strongest in the cyclic area. We briefly speculate that the destabilization of the rodent dynamics is linked to increased seasonalforcing on the trophic interactions in which the gray-sided voles are involved.     

Voters and Values in the 2004 Election

A poorly devised exit poll question undermined meaningful analysisof voters’ concerns in the 2004 presidential election.Twenty-two percent of voters picked "moral values" from a listof "issues" describing what mattered most in their vote, morethan selected any other item. Various commentators have misinterpretedthis single data point to conclude that moral values are anascendant political issue and to credit conservative Christiangroups with turning George W. Bush’s popular vote defeatin 2000 into his three million–vote margin of victoryin 2004. We suggest, rather, that while morals and values arecritical in informing political judgments, they represent personalcharacteristics and ill-defined policy preferences far morethan any discrete political issue. First by conflating moralsand values and then by further conflating characteristics andissues, the exit poll’s "issues" list distorted our understandingof the 2004 election. In this article, we examine the flawsin the 2004 National Election Pool exit poll’s "most importantissue" question and explore the presumed rising electoral importanceof moral values and the conservative Christians who overwhelminglyselected this item. Using national exit poll data from 1980through 2004 and other national surveys, we find that the moralvalues item on the issues list cannot properly be viewed asa discrete issue or set of closely related issues; that itsimportance to voters has not grown over time; and that whencontrolled for other variables, it ranks low on the issues listin predicting 2004 vote choices. The aggregated exit poll dataalso show that the voting behavior of conservative Christiansis relatively stable over time, and these voters were not primarilyresponsible for Bush’s improvement in 2004 over 2000.     

How Too Little Can Give You a Little Too Much: Determining the Number of Household Phone Lines in RDD Surveys

Accurately assessing the number of household phone lines inrandom-digit dialed (RDD) surveys for use in weighting has becomemore complicated over time. This study evaluates phone lineweighting by asking an in-depth battery of seven questions designedto measure the number of available land lines in the home moreprecisely. The results show that this weighting correction isnot so simple, and that inadequately parsing the type and useof household phone numbers produces an inaccurate weight. Failingexplicitly to remove irrelevant phone numbers, especially cellphones, produces a larger-than-appropriate weighting adjustment.Potentially more important on a practical level is that, whendone correctly, and even when "overdone," phone line weightinghad little impact across a diverse set of opinion and demographicvariables.     

A Bayesian method for safety signal detection in ongoing blinded randomised controlled trials

Sponsors have a responsibility to minimise risk to participants in clinical studies through safety monitoring. The FDA Final Rule for IND Safety Reporting requires routine aggregate safety evaluation, including in ongoing blinded studies. We are interested in estimating the probability that the true adverse event rate in the experimental arm exceeds that in the control arm. We developed a Bayesian approach that specifies an informative meta-analytic predictive prior on the event probability in the control arm and an uninformative prior on that in the experimental arm. We combined these priors with a mixture likelihood that considers each patient in the ongoing blinded study may belong to the experimental or control arm. This allowed us to estimate the quantity of interest without unblinding. We evaluated our method by simulation, pairing scenarios that differed only in whether a safety signal was present or missing, and quantifying the ability of our model to discriminate using signal detection theory. Our approach shows benefit. It detects safety signals more reliably with greater sample sizes and for common rather than rare events. Performance does not deteriorate markedly when historical studies exhibit heterogeneous hazards or non-constant hazards. Our method will allow us to monitor safety signals in ongoing blinded studies with the goal of earlier identification and risk mitigation. Our method could be adapted to use informative priors on both arms or predictive covariates where pertinent data exist. We stress that ongoing safety monitoring should involve a multi-disciplinary team where statistical methods are paired with medical judgement.