Regression models to dependence for exceedance

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) aims to study the tails of probability distributions in order to measure and quantify extreme events of maximum and minimum. In river flow data, an extreme level of a river may be related to the level of a neighboring river that flows into it. In this type of data, it is very common for flooding of a location to have been caused by a very large flow from an affluent river that is tens or hundreds of kilometers from this location. In this sense, an interesting approach is to consider a conditional model for the estimation of a multivariate model. Inspired by this idea, we propose a Bayesian model to describe the dependence of exceedance between rivers, where we considered a conditionally independent structure. In this model, the dependence between rivers is captured by modeling the excess marginally of one river as a consequence of linear functions of the other rivers. The results showed that there is a strong and positive connection between excesses in one river caused by the excesses of the other rivers.     

Health,wartime stress,and unit cohesion: Evidence from Union Army veterans

We find that Union Army veterans of the American Civil War who faced greater wartime stress (as measured by higher battlefield mortality rates) experienced higher mortality rates at older ages, but that men who were from more cohesive companies were statistically significantly less likely to be affected by wartime stress. Our results hold for overall mortality, mortality from ischemic heart disease and stroke, and new diagnoses of arteriosclerosis. Our findings represent one of the first long-run health follow-ups of the interaction between stress and social networks in a human population in which both stress and social networks are arguably exogenous.     

人口计生宣传教育为“先导”的重心和支点

宣传教育为先导的战略决策,是国家人口计生委党组书记、主任李斌同志2007年年底在河南召开全国农村人口文化建设工作现场会和在宁波市召开全国婚育新风进万家活动经验交流会上提出的重大战略思想。宣传教育为先导战略决策的提出,是在科学发展观指引下尊重思想政治工作、精神文明建设和人口计生工作客观规律,总结正反两方面工作经验教训的必然产物,是今后做好人口计生工作的元点工程。本文主要论述了为什么要先导,先什么、导什么,如何先导三个重大问题。     

A continuous rating method for preferential voting: the complete case

A method is given for quantitatively rating the social acceptance of different options which are the matter of a complete preferential vote. Completeness means that every voter expresses a comparison (a preference or a tie) about each pair of options. The proposed method is proved to have certain desirable properties, which include: the continuity of the rates with respect to the data, a decomposition property that characterizes certain situations opposite to a tie, the Condorcet?CSmith principle, and clone consistency. One can view this rating method as a complement for the ranking method introduced in 1997 by Markus Schulze. It is also related to certain methods of cluster analysis and one-dimensional scaling.     

Rural ageing in the United States: Trends and contexts

This paper examines rural population ageing in the United States with a particular focus on the contrasting contexts in which older rural residents live. We compare the characteristics of the older population by rural versus urban residence, and explore challenges and opportunities associated with the ageing of rural baby boomers. The United States is a vast territory, and rural areas in the US are diverse regionally, in poverty and income, principal forms of employment, proximity to metropolitan areas, population size, density and composition, the history of change in these parameters, and a number of other factors that affect the ageing process. Hence, the diversity across rural areas is an important consideration in what affects the well being of rural elderly individuals, as well as the community-level impacts of rural ageing. Further, the characteristics of the older rural population help shape community and rural development outcomes for diverse rural communities. We use data from various US Census Bureau sources, and cite other studies to provide a demographic overview of ageing in the rural United States, and to analyze how this situation differs in varying socio-demographic and regional contexts. In the concluding section, we focus on policy implications associated with rural ageing.     

Characteristics and Outcomes of College-Age Adults Enrolled in Private Residential Treatment: Implications for Practice

Substance use among college-age adults is of interest due to high levels of use and low levels of treatment access and engagement relative to other adults. Data collected from 1,972 clients in residential services were analyzed to investigate differences in use patterns, treatment outcomes, and other life area problems. Participants completed an Addiction Severity Index (ASI) and the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA) at baseline, and an ASI and Treatment Services Review at 1-month and 6-month postdischarge interviews. Almost a quarter (24.1%) of participants were college age (18–25 years old). They were more likely to be White and male, and less likely to complete treatment although they had a longer average length of stay. College-age adults improved on all outcome measures, and posttreatment service use shows significant difference between college-age and older participants. Implications for practice are discussed.     

Building,Engaging, and Sustaining a Continuum of Care From Harm Reduction to Recovery Support: The Rutgers Alcohol and Other Drug Assistance Program

Since 1983, the focus of the Rutgers Alcohol and Other Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) has been developing policies, training staff to identify students at risk, developing and implementing evidence-based screening and brief interventions, providing short-term counseling by professionals trained in alcohol and other drug abuse to assist students beyond brief interventions, identifying effective treatment for college students, developing a campus recovery program, on-campus recovery housing, and other supports for students in recovery. This article presents a case study of the Rutgers ADAP program, of building and sustaining a program committed to engaging students in both evidence-based risk reduction interventions and an on-campus recovery community given their stage of change and motivation to make changes. Historical milestones are described as part of a creative model for intervention. We identify the challenges of integrating substance abuse recovery into campus mental health programs, and of integrating recovery into other university communities.