Improved estimation methods for unrelated question randomized response techniques

The randomized response technique (RRT) is an important tool, commonly used to avoid biased answers in survey on sensitive issues by preserving the respondents’ privacy. In this paper, we introduce a data collection method for survey on sensitive issues combining both the unrelated-question RRT and the direct question design. The direct questioning method is utilized to obtain responses to a non sensitive question that is related to the innocuous question from the unrelated-question RRT. These responses serve as additional information that can be used to improve the estimation of the prevalence of the sensitive behavior. Furthermore, we propose two new methods for the estimation of the proportion of respondents possessing the sensitive attribute under a missing data setup. More specifically, we develop the weighted estimator and the weighted conditional likelihood estimator. The performances of our estimators are studied numerically and compared with that of an existing one. Both proposed estimators are more efficient than the Greenberg's estimator. We illustrate our methods using real data from a survey study on illegal use of cable TV service in Taiwan.     

利用非齐次指数函数构造GM(1,1)模型背景值的新方法

文章以灰色GM(1,1)模型背景值的优化为研究目的,讨论了传统背景值构造方法适用于低增长指数序列、对高增长指数序列拟合产生滞后误差的原因,提出了利用非齐次指数函数x(1)(t):A.eBt+C在区间[k-1,k]上与横坐标轴所围实际面积来构造背景值的新方法,并对其合理性进行了证明;在不同发展系数a条件下,比较了背景值构造方法对模拟和预测精度的影响,给出了新背景值条件下GM(1,1)模型的适用范围;大量的数据模拟和模型比较表明,新背景值构造方法提高了背景值的精确性及灰预测模型的拟合精度和预测精度.     

A Note on High-Dimensional Linear Regression With Interactions

The problem of interaction selection in high-dimensional data analysis has recently received much attention. This note aims to address and clarify several fundamental issues in interaction selection for linear regression models, especially when the input dimension p is much larger than the sample size n. We first discuss how to give a formal definition of “importance” for main and interaction effects. Then we focus on two-stage methods, which are computationally attractive for high-dimensional data analysis but thus far have been regarded as heuristic. We revisit the counterexample of Turlach and provide new insight to justify two-stage methods from the theoretical perspective. In the end, we suggest new strategies for interaction selection under the marginality principle and provide some simulation results.     

Development of an expert system for abnormal operating procedures in a main control room

The study was conducted from the perspective of human factors engineering in order to compare the process that operators originally used to diagnose potential and actual faults with a process that included an expert system for diagnosing faults. The results of the study indicated that the existence of an expert system for fault diagnosis makes the task of fault diagnosis easier and reduces errors by quickly suggesting likely Abnormal Operating Procedures (AOPs).     

甘肃南部林区族群生存文化的生态人类学研究——以舟曲县3个藏汉村寨为例

甘肃省南部林区属于国家长江上游水土保持重点防治区域,具有非常重要的战略地位。世代居住在这块地方上的藏、汉族群积累了大量与所处环境相适应的生存技能和经验。构筑起与这种生态环境相适应的生存文化,形成了以森林为核心的生态系统与以苯教为核心的生存文化之间的共生关系。在保护当地生态环境、改善类似地区的生态环境、改变同一地区不同族群的生态观念等方面都能发挥作用,具有很强的实用价值,应该进行深入发掘和总结。     

乡村自治发展进程中农民自组织能力提升问题的探索

我国乡村自治治理面临新的历史拐点。在村民自治组织发展已经24年的今天,农民自组织能力仍然落后于新农村建设的需求,面对市场经济的丛林法则,农民始终处于劣势。本文通过现阶段农民自组织能力问题的分析,指出从制度化层面推动农民权益保障和利益诉求机制的完善,将是提升农民自组织能力,激发农民的内生活力,实现农民真正当家做主和社会变革的根本保障。     

心理学哲学视野中的主体心理学与存在心理学

从心理学哲学的角度加以观察,我们会发现当代心理学正面临一场变革———从主体心理学转向存在心理学。主体心理学建立在近现代西方理性哲学的基础之上,强调主体理性在研究中的至尊地位,最后导致研究中理性与生活的分离、研究者与被研究者的分离、研究内容与研究对象的分离。存在心理学关注个体的生存实践,主张打破研究中的主客分离,消解主体理性的中心地位,将研究者与被研究者有机地统一起来,将研究内容与方法结合起来,使研究更具日常性与现实性。     

媒妁起源考论

媒妁文化在中国文化史和社会生活史上源远流长且殊具特色.媒妁的缘起,是为适应古代社会婚姻制度变革和人类文明进步的时代要求产生的,而不仅局限于经济因素.媒妁的肇始当在对偶婚向专偶婚过渡的父系氏族社会时期,而非专偶婚(即一夫一妻制)形成之后.其起源阶段在考古学文化中大致相当于从山东大汶口文化晚期至夏文化早期,即约在公元前2500年至前2100年之间.     

自贸区所属城市创新驱动发展评价

自贸区对所属城市创新能力具有直接推动作用。选取福建省为评价对象,应用改进熵值法,实证分析自贸区所属城市创新驱动发展要素及互动关系,指出科技进步、政策支撑、产业参与和环境匹配是区域创新的重要因素,在资源秉赋差异明显的情况下,应着力推进科研投入与措施创新,并加快人才培育和产业集聚。     

我国知识失业现象及其负面效应解析

近年来,知识失业已成为我国一个十分令人关注的现象,它造成了我国人力资源的严重浪费,并给社会和个人带来了极大的负面效应。本文概述了我国目前知识失业情况,并从多角度解析了我国产生知识失业的原因及其负面效应,提出了自己的几点建议。