对口支援政策下的产业援疆模式选择与实现路径

积极探索和研究产业援疆模式,有助于实现东西部经济合作,促进产业结构调整,推动新疆自我发展能力的提高。该文基于对口支援政策,总结和借鉴了内地省份飞地经济发展的经验和启示,结合新疆区情,根据产业援疆中的政府作用和资金特点,认为江苏模式、中石化模式、广东模式、山东模式四种较为成功、典型的产业援疆模式及其适用领域,可作为产业援疆借鉴与选择的路径模式,并从产业援疆的市场主体、转移动力、政策体系、运行机制、园区开放等方面就提升产业援疆模式的效率提出了相应的措施和建议。     

论思想政治教育对学生素质拓展的作用

思想政治教育是我国学校教育的重要内容,思想政治工作是学校工作的重要组成部分。学生思想政治教育为学生素质拓展提供了强大的精神动力和智力支持。在实施学生素质拓展计划的过程中,学生思想政治教育始终处于主导性地位,对学生素质拓展计划的实施具有极其重要的作用。     

Changes in Family Relationships among Substance Abusing Runaway Adolescents: A Comparison between Family and Individual Therapies

Eligible adolescents (12–17 years old) were recruited from a short‐term crisis shelter for runaway adolescents in a large Midwestern city. Adolescents (N = 179) were randomly assigned to Ecologically‐Based Family Therapy (EBFT, n = 61), the Community Reinforcement Approach (CRA, n = 57), or brief Motivational Enhancement Therapy (MET, n = 61) with the primary focus on substance abuse. A significant increase in perceived family cohesion and a significant reduction in perceived family conflict were found among all treatment conditions from baseline to the 24‐month follow‐up. Adolescents who received EBFT demonstrated more improvement in family cohesion after treatment than those who received CRA or MET, and more reduction in family conflict during treatment than those who received MET.     

Tail Behavior and Limit Distribution of Maximum of Logarithmic General Error Distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution, an extension of the log-normal distribution, is proposed. Some interesting properties of the log GED are derived. These properties are applied to establish the asymptotic behavior of the ratio of probability densities and the ratio of the tails of the logarithmic general error and log-normal distributions, and to derive the asymptotic distribution of the partial maximum of an independent and identically distributed sequence obeying the log GED.     

产品服务供应链的“双重收益共享”合作机制

产品与服务融合缓解了"供需错位"矛盾，使得产品服务供应链探索成为"供给侧结构性改革"下供需结构性匹配的重要路径。本文刻画产品服务视角下供应链组织结构的本质特征，构建产品服务供应链合作模型，探讨合作机制下"帕累托改进"区间存在性，揭示合作机制对产品服务供应链效率的作用机理。核心研究发现：供应链多元化组织结构加剧收益分配冲突，并导致服务规模与供应链效率"倒挂"现象，而合作机制下"双重收益共享"合作模型能提升产品服务供应链效率。     

A new algorithm to estimate monotone nonparametric link functions and a comparison with parametric approach

The generalized linear model (GLM) is a class of regression models where the means of the response variables and the linear predictors are joined through a link function. Standard GLM assumes the link function is fixed, and one can form more flexible GLM by either estimating the flexible link function from a parametric family of link functions or estimating it nonparametically. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that uses P-spline for nonparametrically estimating the link function which is guaranteed to be monotone. It is equivalent to fit the generalized single index model with monotonicity constraint. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare our nonparametric approach for estimating link function with various parametric approaches, including traditional logit, probit and robit link functions, and two recently developed link functions, the generalized extreme value link and the symmetric power logit link. The simulation study shows that the link function estimated nonparametrically by our proposed algorithm performs well under a wide range of different true link functions and outperforms parametric approaches when they are misspecified. A real data example is used to illustrate the results.     

Multi-neighborhood based iterated tabu search for routing and wavelength assignment problem

The routing and wavelength assignment problem (RWA) has shown to be NP-hard if the wavelength continuity constraint and the objective of minimizing the number of wavelengths are considered. This paper introduces a multi-neighborhood based iterated tabu search algorithm (MN-ITS), which consists of three neighborhoods with a unified incremental evaluation method, to solve the min-RWA problem. The proposed MN-ITS algorithm is tested on a set of widely studied real world instances as well as a set of challenging random ones in the literature. Comparison with other reference algorithms shows that the MN-ITS algorithm is able to improve five best upper bounds obtained by other competitive reference algorithms in the literature. This paper also presents an analysis to show the significance of the unified incremental evaluation technique and the combination of multiple neighborhoods.     

以行为分析学为指导科学构建学生综合素质考评体系

目前,大部分高职院校对学生的考核模式不适应社会对高职院校学生的要求。应当建立科学的考评体系,对学生的行为进行科学的分析,为学生综合素质考评提供依据,促使学生能扬长避短,不断进步。     

基于改进贝叶斯网络的省级政府债务风险预警模型

利用格兰杰非因果关系检验确定贝叶斯网络节点,反映经济变量之间的影响方式。采用误判率最小原则,确定预警指标临界值。利用贝叶斯网络学习,确定贝叶斯网络节点的后验概率。利用贝叶斯网络推理,测算地方政府债务风险,计算预警指标变化对省级政府债务违约概率的影响。研究结果表明:财政收入/财政支出与GDP增速/债务增速是预警省级政府债务风险的最重要指标,保持债务依存度、GDP增速/债务增速和民间投资增速/政府债务增速在适度区间内,能够有效降低省级政府债务风险。     

Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.