CAN GUEST WORKERS SOLVE JAPAN'S FISCAL PROBLEMS?

The labor force in Japan is projected to fall from 64 million in 2014 to 20 million in 2100, signaling unprecedented tax/transfer adjustments to achieve fiscal sustainability. In this paper, we develop a quantitative overlapping generations model to measure the impact of guest worker programs in Japan. Against a baseline general equilibrium transition in which the consumption tax adjusts to achieve fiscal sustainability, we compute alternative transitions with guest worker programs. Depending on the size and skill distribution of guest workers, these programs may mitigate Japan's fiscal imbalance problem with a relatively manageable increase in the consumption tax. (JEL E2, E6, H5, J11, J15)     

Cognitive chrono-ethnography lite

Conducting field research facilitates understanding human daily activities. Cognitive Chrono-Ethnography (CCE) is a study methodology used to understand how people select actions in daily life by conducting ethnographical field research. CCE consists of measuring monitors' daily activities in a specified field and in-depth interviews using the recorded videos afterward. However, privacy issues may arise when conducting standard CCE with video recordings in a daily field. To resolve these issues, we developed a new study methodology, CCE Lite. To replace video recordings, we created pseudo-first-personview (PFPV) movies using a computer-graphic technique. The PFPV movies were used to remind the monitors of their activities. These movies replicated monitors' activities (e.g., locomotion and change in physical direction), with no human images and voices. We applied CCE Lite in a case study that involved female employees of hotels at a spa resort. In-depth interviews while showing the PFPV movies determined service schema of the employees (i.e., hospitality). Results indicated that using PFPV movies helped the employees to remember and reconstruct the situation of recorded activities.     

Decline of Real Love and Rise of Virtual Love: Love in Asia

In Japan, marriage rates have declined since 1980, and interest in romantic relationships has declined in the 21st century. This article shows, mainly based on the official statistics and surveys, that (i) people in contemporary Japanese society have become less willing to get married or even date; (ii) various forms of virtual love have emerged; and (iii) they have spread in East Asian countries in general. Marriage stems from romantic relationships. Simultaneously, it brings with it new economic life. In Japan and other East Asian countries there is an unwritten norm that marriage should be part of economic life. Therefore, satisfying romantic emotions outside real love and marriage is accepted.     

Optimal selection and ordering of columns in supersaturated designs

Two methods to select columns for assigning factors to work on supersaturated designs are proposed. The focus of interest is the degree of non-orthogonality between the selected columns. One method is the exhaustive enumeration of selections of p columns from all k columns to find the exact optimality, while the other is intended to find an approximate solution by applying techniques used in the corresponding analysis, aiming for ease of use as well as a reduction in the large computing time required for large k with the first method. Numerical illustrations for several typical design matrices reveal that the resulting “approximately” optimal assignments of factors to their columns are exactly optimal for any p. Ordering the columns in E(s²)-optimal designs results in promising new findings including a large number of E(s²)-optimal designs.     

日本近代文学研究新视角初探--坪内逍遥与政治小说

在后现代主义思潮影响下,日本近代文学界的研究发生重大转变,许多"自明"的前提受到质疑,坪内逍遥在日本文学史上的地位的转变便是受此种思潮影响而出现的一个个案.坪内逍遥与政治小说的关系在先前的研究中似乎已有定论,但在重新认识"近代"的内涵之后会发现政治小说对坪内逍遥所产生的巨大的影响力.     

Analysis of changes of insect-plant ratio-improvement of key-factor analysis for evaluating bottom-up effects in insect population dynamics

A revised key-factor analysis was presented for analyzing the temporal changes in the ratio of insect absolute number to plant resource. Ten data sets for 5 insect species were then analyzed. In this key-factor analysis, the key factor is defined as the factor contributing highly to between-year variation inR _r , the log rate of the inter-year change of the insect-plant ratio. The yearly change of plant resource was handled as a separate factor, expressed byr _pl , log ratio of plant resource in yearn to plant resource in yearn+1. The following was revealed: 1) In 7 of the 10 data sets examined,r _pl influenced variations ofR _r ; in particular in 3 casesr _pl was the main key factor. 2) Generation-to-generation fluctuations of absolute insect densities showed density dependence in 4 cases, while those of insect-plant ratios, in 8 cases. 3) The Royama model or a linear model, explained well the relationship between log insect-plant ratio (X _r ) andR _r and the relationship betweenX _r and log yearly change rate of absolute insect density (R _abs ). However, in the 7 cases in whichr _pl was a critical factor for variations ofR _r , with, increase ofX _r ,R _r showed a steeper, decrease around the equilibrium point (the point for whichR _r is 0) thanR _abs . This occurred becauser _pl tended to be negatively correlated withX _r . Consequently, in two casesX _r fluctuated cyclicly or chaotically although without the changes in plant resource, fluctuations ofX _r would be damped oscillations approaching equilibrium.     

Superstition effects versus cohort effects: is it bad luck to be born in the year of the fire horse in Japan?

The year of the fire horse (called “Hinoeuma” in Japanese) is one of the sixty Chinese zodiac symbols used to count years. According to superstition, fire horse women are said to have troubled marriages, to mistreat men, and to cause early deaths for their husbands and fathers. No such stigma applies to men born in these years. This paper attempts to investigate the impact of women’s birth in the most recent fire horse year (1966) on the outcome of their lives by using individual-level microdata. We find that there is no evidence of disadvantages to fire horse women in human capital investment, performance in the marriage market, or intra-household allocation of resources after marriage. We provide two plausible explanations for this lack of impact from the stigma: a cohort size effect and a dynamic transition in the share of arranged and love marriages. The latter affected parents’ decisions in 1966 as well as the performance of fire horse women in the marriage market and in intra-household resource allocation after marriage. This finding suggests the importance of careful attention to the dynamic effects of society and the economy that may occur before the emergence of a cohort size effect.