Forward irrelevance

We investigate how to combine marginal assessments about the values that random variables assume separately into a model for the values that they assume jointly, when (i) these marginal assessments are modelled by means of coherent lower previsions and (ii) we have the additional assumption that the random variables are forward epistemically irrelevant to each other. We consider and provide arguments for two possible combinations, namely the forward irrelevant natural extension and the forward irrelevant product, and we study the relationships between them. Our treatment also uncovers an interesting connection between the behavioural theory of coherent lower previsions, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic approach to probability theory.     

Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model. Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the r$r$th moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin et al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214–223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a simulation study and in applications to three real data sets.     

Recent and classical goodness-of-fit tests for the Poisson distribution

We give a critical synopsis of classical and recent tests for Poissonity, our emphasis being on procedures which are consistent against general alternatives. Two classes of weighted Cramér–von Mises type test statistics, based on the empirical probability generating function process, are studied in more detail. Both of them generalize already known test statistics by introducing a weighting parameter, thus providing more flexibility with regard to power against specific alternatives. In both cases, we prove convergence in distribution of the statistics under the null hypothesis in the setting of a triangular array of rowwise independent and identically distributed random variables as well as consistency of the corresponding test against general alternatives. Therefore, a sound theoretical basis is provided for the parametric bootstrap procedure, which is applied to obtain critical values in a large-scale simulation study. Each of the tests considered in this study, when implemented via the parametric bootstrap method, maintains a nominal level of significance very closely, even for small sample sizes. The procedures are applied to four well-known data sets.     

Underestimating busyness: Indications of nonresponse bias due to work-family conflict and time pressure

International research shows that both work-family conflict and time pressure are increasing in Western societies. With these increased pressures, precisely those people who are combining work and family obligations may be missing from survey estimates. This study investigates whether the measurement of work-family conflict (WFC) and time pressure is influenced by nonresponse bias. Using the Flemish “Work, Family and Time use in Flanders”-survey and the Basic Question survey for nonrespondents of this survey, we investigate whether nonrespondents score higher on subjective and objective indicators of WFC and time pressure than respondents. Results show that nonrespondents are indeed those sample units who experience significantly more WFC and time pressure, demonstrating that WFC and time pressure related nonresponse biases exist. Implications and suggestions to reduce bias in data collections are discussed.     

重庆要从可持续战略高度扩大内需

从未来重庆将成为“水库城市”的实际出发 ,重庆要从可持续消费和可持续发展战略高度扩大内需 :发展绿色经济 ,扩大绿色产品消费需求 ;扩大发展型、精神型产品消费需求 ;扩大增益型、服务型产品消费需求 ;扩大技术型、有利于产业结构调整的产品消费需求 ;发展资本市场 ,创新金融产品 ,扩大金融型产品的消费需求     

Income inequality and participation: A comparison of 24 European countries

Previous research suggests that when there is a high level of inequality, there is a low rate of participation. Two arguments are generally offered: First, inequality depresses participation because people from different status groups have fewer opportunities to share common goals. Second, people may participate more in civic and social life when they have more resources. However, until now, these explanations have not been separated empirically. Using EU-SILC data for 24 European countries, we analyze how income inequality is related to civic and social participation. Our results indicate that the main effects of inequality manifest via resources at the individual and societal level. However, independent of these resources, higher inequality is associated with lower civic participation. Furthermore, inequality magnifies the relationship between income and participation. This finding is in line with the view that inter-individual processes explain why inequality diminishes participation.     

简论大学出版社队伍素质的培养

论述了目前大学出版社队伍建设存在的问题 ,阐明了出版社人员必备的道德素质、学习素质和创新素质 ,同时确立了素质评价的新体系     

金属工艺课程体系的改革与思考

文章以现代工科教育中制造技术对工程材料成型和制造工艺基础的基本要求为出发点,力求体现各学科的交叉、融合,使理论、实践、创新和现代教育技术有机地结合在一起,并在此基础上构建了在大工程背景下,以现代工程材料成型与制造工艺基础为主要教学内容,以创新教学为特色,体现各学科的交叉、融合特点,实习实验一体化的课程体系.     

公共物品公共性的变化及其有效提供

在一端为公共物品 ,一端为私人物品的物品序列中 ,同一物品的相对位置会因为排他性技术水平的不同而表现出不确定性 ,导致物品公共性的不断变化。这种位置变化决定了对于公共物品提供者的选择 ,改变了政府提供公共物品的传统观点。据此 ,公共物品提供的理论基础应是公共物品提供的经济发展观 :依据公共物品在不同阶段特性的改变选择不同的提供者。这就为非政府组织、私人提供公共物品准备了条件。在中国城市大力引进非政府组织提供城市各种公共物品的同时 ,广大农村公共物品的提供在现阶段只能由政府来提供     

土地资源可持续利用概念的理性思考

在深入研究土地利用与可持续发展关系的基础上 ,提出土地资源可持续利用概念的新定义 ,进而以土地利用生态经济系统为分析框架 ,对土地利用可持续性内涵的作出合理解释。土地资源可持续利用是能够不断满足人类可持续发展需要的土地利用 ,其内在本质是要建立和保持一个运行良好的土地利用系统 ,土地利用的可持续性指的是系统运行在不断增加人类产出效益的同时不妨碍该系统再运行能力的连续保持和提高