Portent Lore and Medieval Popular Culture

Norman R. Smith begins his essay by pointing out that there is no such thing as “popular” monster lore (teratology) in the Middle Ages, but goes on to say that a knowledge of the teratological thought of, say, Isidore of Seville, may give us a very good insight into the popular thoughtof the day. Ideas concerning “monstrous births,” considered portentous until recent times, tell us a great deal about the concepts men had of themselves in relation to their world, their god, and their historical place, factors which illuminate the imaginatively constructed ideas and their popularity during the Renaissance. Monster lore, of course, remains popular in our own day, hence our passionate interest in the Loch Ness Monster and our devotion to the myriad types of Frankenstein that have appeared recently, a fact that perhaps links us and our time in a rather startling way to the Middle Ages.     

Designs to guard against outliers in the présence or absence of model bias

Optimality of experimental design is considered in the situation in which individual observations may be subject to a shift in mean. The criterion of minimum average integrated mean square error is examined in general and the consequences for first and second degree models in the présence or absence of model bias are discussed.     

Adapting the jury trial for program evaluation: A report of an experience

A portion of the graduate program in clinical community psychology at SUNY Buffalo was subjected to a jury trial as a form of program evaluation. The theory of the trial as evaluation, the problems of implementation, and a posttrial evaluation are discussed. The trial, while time-consuming, especially in its pretrial phases, has the potential for presenting a dramatic picture of a program through the medium of human testimony. The jury was able to arrive at clear decisions on questions put to it, with a high degree of confidence. Decision makers accepted some of the jury's conclusions, and subjective evidence suggests that many of the controversial issues which generated the trial were resolved for the group by the procedure. The posttrial evaluation revealed limitations, such as evidence which was not presented at the trial. The experience proved useful for purposes of interdisciplinary education, providing another lens through which the evaluation problem could be viewed.     

Review—Feature

Book Reviews are in this Articles.
Class, Codes and Control, Volume I: Theoretical Studies Towards a Sociology of Language. By Basil Bernstein.
Class, Codes and Control, Volume II: Applied Studies Towards a Sociology of Language, edited by Basil Bernstein.     

Rock Creek History1

This is an experimental, mixed‐genre narrative, combining autoethnography with other evocative writing forms, including narratives of the self. Using the techniques of fiction, I tell a story about myself and my experiences with nature, the sacred, and a small Montana river named Rock Creek. Kittridge asks for narratives that embed the self in storied histories of sacred spaces. These stories chart the outlines of an epistemology that stresses the sacredness of human life and its relationship to nature. Accordingly, this performance‐based project attempts to enact a sacred epistemology and a form of writing that honors our relationship to nature and the natural world.     

Language and power in Japanese transplants in Scotland

Previous research into Japanese owned and managed enterprises in western countries has been alert to problems in cross‐cultural communication but there has been little research into the linguistic patterns accompanying these activities. This study of seven such plants in Scotland illustrates key features of the linguistic patterns evident in them. Forms of pidgin develop in co‐operative working environments but unusually they are based on the language of the formal subordinates, local English speaking managers and workers. In contrast, and more in line with expectations from socio‐linguistic theory, the local dialect is used as a device to promote local workforce solidarity against expatriate management. The former discrepancy between material and cultural power, which is not expected on the basis of Bourdieu's and related theories of cultural behaviour, is explained in terms of the differing career paths of Japanese and non‐Japanese personnel, the marginal involvement of Japanese management in the local society and their reticence in asserting cultural power commensurate with their economic power. However, these lingusitic developments were local phenomena that did not challenge Japanese managerial control, both local and corporate, of decisions on development and investment. Hence, the opposition between cultural and material power may be permitted to persist because of these limited effects.     

Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments

This paper analyzes the conditions under which consistent estimation can be achieved in instrumental variables (IV) regression when the available instruments are weak and the number of instruments, K_n, goes to infinity with the sample size. We show that consistent estimation depends importantly on the strength of the instruments as measured by r_n, the rate of growth of the so‐called concentration parameter, and also on K_n. In particular, when K_n→∞, the concentration parameter can grow, even if each individual instrument is only weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variables, and consistency of certain estimators can be established under weaker conditions than have previously been assumed in the literature. Hence, the use of many weak instruments may actually improve the performance of certain point estimators. More specifically, we find that the limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimator and the bias‐corrected two‐stage least squares (B2SLS) estimator are consistent when , while the two‐stage least squares (2SLS) estimator is consistent only if K_n/r_n→0 as n→∞. These consistency results suggest that LIML and B2SLS are more robust to instrument weakness than 2SLS.     

Competition for popular support: a valence model of elections in Turkey

Models of elections tend to predict that parties will maximize votes by converging to an electoral center. There is no empirical support for this prediction. In order to account for the phenomenon of political divergence, this paper offers a stochastic electoral model where party leaders or candidates are differentiated by differing valences??the electoral perception of the quality of the party leader. If valence is simply intrinsic, then it can be shown that there is a ??convergence coefficient??, defined in terms of the empirical parameters, that must be bounded above by the dimension of the space, in order for the electoral mean to be a Nash equilibrium. This model is applied to elections in Turkey in 1999 and 2002. The idea of valence is then extended to include the possibility that activist groups contribute resources to their favored parties in response to policy concessions from the parties. The equilibrium result is that parties, in order to maximize vote share, must balance a centripetal electoral force against a centrifugal activist effect. We estimate pure spatial models and models with sociodemographic valences, and use simulations to compare the equilibrium predictions with the estimated party positions.     

The Predictive Validity Of Reproductive Intentions

On the basis of data collected in the 1975 National Fertility Study (NFS) in which continuously married white women interviewed in the 1970 NFS were reinterviewed five years later, the aggregate and individual validity of reported fertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding about aggregate prediction is that 1970 intentions overestimated 1971–1975 fertility to the same extent as the conventional 1970 total fertility rate. The conclusion is that intentions suffer all of the same vulnerabilities as other period measures. At the individual level, the validity of intentions is considerable in comparison with most other indicators.