Buchbesprechungen / Book reviews

Literatur / Books

Buchbesprechungen / Book reviews     

Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses

This report describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model statistical loss distributions in financial operational risk scenarios. Its focus is on modeling "long" tail, or unexpected, loss events using mixtures of appropriate loss frequency and severity distributions where these mixtures are conditioned on causal variables that model the capability or effectiveness of the underlying controls process. The use of causal modeling is discussed from the perspective of exploiting local expertise about process reliability and formally connecting this knowledge to actual or hypothetical statistical phenomena resulting from the process. This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions. We conclude that BNs can help combine qualitative data from experts and quantitative data from historical loss databases in a principled way and as such they go some way in meeting the requirements of the draft Basel II Accord (Basel, 2004) for an advanced measurement approach (AMA).     

Moment estimators of defect pattern frequencies,allowing for inspection error

Unbiased estimators of the number of individuals in a lot possessing various patterns of types of defects are constructed. Explicit formulas are given for cases of two and three types of defect. Application of the formulas requires knowledge of the probabilities of various kinds of errors in the inspection process.     

Comment

We propose a sequential test for predictive ability for recursively assessing whether some economic variables have explanatory content for another variable. In the forecasting literature it is common to assess predictive ability by using “one-shot” tests at each estimation period. We show that this practice leads to size distortions, selects overfitted models and provides spurious evidence of in-sample predictive ability, and may lower the forecast accuracy of the model selected by the test. The usefulness of the proposed test is shown in well-known empirical applications to the real-time predictive content of money for output and the selection between linear and nonlinear models.     

Tables to Facilitate Fitting Tadikamalla and Johnson's LB Distributions

This paper is concerned with estimating the parameters of Tadikamalla-Johnson's L_B distribution using the first four moments. Tables of the parameters of the L_B distribution are given for selected values of skewness (0.0(0.05) 1.0(0.1)2.0) and corresponding available values of kurtosis at intervals of 0.2. The construction and use of these tables is explained with a numerical example.     

The Planning Stage in Statistical Reasoning

An important step in the statistical problem-solving process is the selection of the appropriate statistical procedure for the real-world situation under analysis. A decision-tree term project has been found to be an effective teaching device to help MBA students understand this step. The project requires the students to construct a decision-tree structure, which, through a series of questions and responses, will lead from the statement of a statistical question to the appropriate sampling distribution to use in addressing the question.