Inspection errors in graff-roeloffs modification of hierarchical dorfman screening procedures

Graff and Roeloffs' (1972) modification of the Dorfman (1943) screening procedure, and their analysis of the effects of inspection error on properties of the procedure, is extended to hierarchical procedures, using the results of Kotz and Johnson (1982).     

Quota fulfilment and errors in stratification

It is desired to draw a random sample containing specified numbers of individuals from each stratum of a population. First a random sample of size N is chosen from the whole populations and the stratum of each individual ascertained; then any shortfall is made up by selecting individuals with known stratum affiliation. Optimal values of N are sought allowing for cost structure and also the possibility of error in ascertaining the strata to which individuals in the first sample belong.     

Examining the 100‐Year Floodplain as a Metric of Risk,Loss, and Household Adjustment

An understudied, but central aspect in understanding flood impacts is the way we conceptualize, identify, and delineate risk. The 100‐year floodplain is the longstanding metric in the United States for determining and acting upon the possibility of an area being inundated. This spatial delineation guides local planning and development decisions, triggers insurance purchases and other household adjustments, and serves as the fundamental indicator for whether it is safe to build a structure on a particular site. However, increasing evidence suggests that the 100‐year floodplain is neither accurate nor sufficient in guiding communities and household decisions to mitigate the adverse economic impacts of floods. In this perspective, we examine the effectiveness of the 100‐year floodplain as an appropriate marker of risk. First, we review existing studies on location and flood damage. Next, we apply these concepts to repetitive flood losses data in Harris County, Texas. We conclude that the apparent inability of the floodplain designation to effectively capture the likelihood of property damage and potential loss of human life in coastal areas has left potentially millions of property owners unaware of the flood risk and unprepared to mitigate their adverse impacts. Relying on traditional 100‐year floodplain boundaries, local decision makers are hampered in their ability to ensure community development occurs in a resilient manner. Finally, we set forth an agenda for future research to better capture the conditions associated with flood risk and account for the large percentage of damage outside the designated floodplain.     

Looking at Journals from Both Sides

The author, a professor in the field of communication, describes his contrasting experiences with publishing an open access society journal and advising a regional association in regards to turning over publication of its journal to a major commercial publishing firm. Using his experience of producing an open access journal as a foundation, he argues for the intrinsic importance of establishing credibility and exercising personal care in the production and maintenance of a journal. The author argues that current efforts by some societies to increase access to their journals through outsourcing to commercial publishers may be counterproductive to the fundamental goal of disseminating knowledge.     

Modeling Supply Chain Dynamics: A Multiagent Approach*

A global economy and increase in customer expectations in terms of cost and services have put a premium on effective supply chain reengineering. It is essential to perform risk-benefit analysis of reengineering alternatives before making a final decision. Simulation provides an effective pragmatic approach to detailed analysis and evaluation of supply chain design and management alternatives. However, the utility of this methodology is hampered by the time and effort required to develop models with sufficient fidelity to the actual supply chain of interest. In this paper, we describe a supply chain modeling framework designed to overcome this difficulty. Using our approach, supply chain models are composed from software components that represent types of supply chain agents (e.g., retailers, manufacturers, transporters), their constituent control elements (e.g., inventory policy), and their interaction protocols (e.g., message types). The underlying library of supply chain modeling components has been derived from analysis of several different supply chains. It provides a reusable base of domain-specific primitives that enables rapid development of customized decision support tools.     

Application of the Back Propagation Neural Network Algorithm with Monotonicity Constraints for Two-Group Classification Problems*

Neural network techniques are widely used in solving pattern recognition or classification problems. However, when statistical data are used in supervised training of a neural network employing the back-propagation least mean square algorithm, the behavior of the classification boundary during training is often unpredictable. This research suggests the application of monotonicity constraints to the back propagation learning algorithm. When the training sample set is preprocessed by a linear classification function, neural network performance and efficiency can be improved in classification applications where the feature vector is related monotonically to the pattern vector. Since most classification problems in business possess monotonic properties, this technique is useful in those problems where any assumptions about the properties of the data are inappropriate.     

Social context,spatial structure and social network structure

Frequently, social networks are studied in their own right with analyses devoid of contextual details. Yet contextual features – both social and spatial – can have impacts on the networks formed within them. This idea is explored with five empirical networks representing different contexts and the use of distinct modeling strategies. These strategies include network visualizations, QAP regression, exponential random graph models, blockmodeling and a combination of blockmodels with exponential random graph models within a single framework. We start with two empirical examples of networks inside organizations. The familiar Bank Wiring Room data show that the social organization (social context) and spatial arrangement of the room help account for the social relations formed there. The second example comes from a police academy where two designed arrangements, one social and one spatial, powerfully determine the relational social structures formed by recruits. The next example is an inter-organizational network that emerged as part of a response to a natural disaster where features of the improvised context helped account for the relations that formed between organizations participating in the search and rescue mission. We then consider an anthropological example of signed relations among sub-tribes in the New Guinea highlands where the physical geography is fixed. This is followed by a trading network off the Dalmatian coast where geography and physical conditions matter. Through these examples, we show that context matters by shaping the structure of networks that form and that a variety of network analytic tools can be mobilized to reveal how networks are shaped, in part, by social and spatial contexts. Implications for studying social networks are suggested.     

Development and Assessment of Measures of Adolescents' Attitudes about Sexual Relationship Rights

Objective: Develop and validate measures of adolescents' attitudes about sexual relationship rights. Methods: Items were completed by students in a large U.S. city (N = 655). The authors conducted an exploratory factor analysis, evaluated internal consistency, and assessed construct validity, including ability to predict sexual behavior at 1-year follow-up. Results: Factor analysis identified 2 distinct factors, comprising attitudes about rights to refuse unwanted sexual activity (5 items) and express sexual engagement needs (5 items) in a sexual relationship. The measures showed sound evidence of reliability and construct validity. Conclusions: The psychometric evidence supports the use of these measures in adolescent sexual health research.