What works for children — the political issues

Recent developments in United Kingdom politics are described that have had an impact on the development of evidence‐based policy for children. The notion of ‘what works’ is examined closely, leading to a suggestion that evaluators should, more appropriately, be concerned with ‘what is worth doing’ for children. The paper develops the idea of ‘robustness’ as a guiding principle for evaluation design and the interpretation of evidence so that valid conclusions can be drawn in a changing policy environment. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Institutional innovation, contingency and war: A review

For over forty years, Douglass North has sought in his work to determine those conditions that favor economic growth. In his most recent writings he has emphasized the institutional innovations of the state and how these are often preceded, or accompanied, by transformations in beliefs and constitutional structures. This review of North's work also discusses the efforts of a younger generation of scholars in economic and political history to apply the tools of public choice theory in constructing “institutional narratives”. Such narratives often focus on the nature of constitutional quandaries that polities have faced in the past. The conclusion suggests that the study of such quandaries can lead to a better understanding of how and why states fight wars. Indeed, it might be possible to use the insights so gained to design international institutions to foster economic growth and preserve peace. Received: 7 September 1998/Accepted: 28 May 1999     

Physician Market Power—Evidence From the Allocation of Malpractice Premiums

Based on evidence from variations in malpractice premiums, physicians have local market power, at least in some dimensions. It is observed that higher-cost physicians pass on a significant portion of idiosyncratic costs to patients as higher prices. I test two hypothesized sources of this market power: barriers to entry from specialization and relatively inelastic firm-level demand for certain services. Examining the relationship of physician-specific malpractice premiums to fees, I find no observable difference in the ability of surgeons and nonsurgeons to pass on these costs; however, both types of physicians pass them on more to surgical than to nonsurgical patients.     

A framework for progressively improving small area population estimates

Summary.  The paper presents a framework for small area population estimation that enables users to select a method that is fit for the purpose. The adjustments to input data that are needed before use are outlined, with emphasis on developing consistent time series of inputs. We show how geographical harmonization of small areas, which is crucial to comparisons over time, can be achieved. For two study regions, the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber, the differences in output and consequences of adopting different methods are illustrated. The paper concludes with a discussion of how data, on stream since 1998, might be included in future small area estimates.     

An alternative to the analysis of covariance for comparing randomized treatments

The problem of comparing mean responses for several treatments applied to a common population is considered. The analysis of co-variance ‘ANCOVA’ is frequently used to take advantage of covariate information in this setting, but in many cases ANCOVA's assumption of parallel regression functions precludes the use of ANCOVA. In this paper, an alternative method is developed which does not make this assumption     

Moment estimators of defect pattern frequencies,allowing for inspection error

Unbiased estimators of the number of individuals in a lot possessing various patterns of types of defects are constructed. Explicit formulas are given for cases of two and three types of defect. Application of the formulas requires knowledge of the probabilities of various kinds of errors in the inspection process.     

The Balance Point: Keeping Serial Bibliographic Records Viable in a Digital Age

Abstract

Michael Norman, head of serials cataloging at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) library, describes his library's development of an integrated management system for serials, the Online Research Resources (ORR). The ORR was designed to draw together and deliver to the public a wide range of information related to the library's serial holdings that previously could only be obtained by consulting a number of sources. With a single search, UIUC patrons can now consult the ORR for serials information such as variant titles, online availability, subject categories, print summary statements, ISI impact factor, where the title is indexed, and whether it is peer reviewed—an innovation sorely needed and highly welcomed by librarians and patrons alike.     

How Do Cancer Risks Predicted From Animal Bioassays Compare with the Epidemiologic Evidence? The Case of Ethylene Dibromide

Cancer risks for ethylene dibromide (EDB) were estimated by fitting several linear non-threshold additive models to data from a gavage bioassay. Risks predicted by these models were compared to the observed cancer mortality among a cohort of workers occupationally exposed to the same chemical. Models that accounted for the shortened latency period in the gavaged rats predicted upper bound risks that were within a factor of 3 of the observed cancer deaths. Data from an animal inhalation study of EDB also were compatible with the epidemiologic data. These findings contradict those of Ramsey et al. (1978), who reported that extrapolation from animal data produced highly exaggerated risk estimates for EDB-exposed workers. This paper explores the reasons for these discrepant findings.