Emigration dynamics of eastern African countries

This examination of emigration dynamics focuses on 13 countries extending from Eritrea to Zimbabwe and Mozambique on the eastern African mainland and on 5 Indian Ocean island nations. The first part of the study looks at the temporal, spatial, and structural perspectives of emigration dynamics. Part 2 considers international migration in the region according to Appleyard's typology (permanent settlers, labor migration, refugees, and illegal migrants) with the additional category of return migration. Measurement issues in emigration dynamics are discussed in part 3, and the demographic/economic setting is the topic of part 4. The demographic factors emphasized include spatial distribution, population density, population structure, population dynamics, demographic transition, and the relationship between internal and international migration. Other major topics of this section of the study are the economic base, the human resource base, population and natural resources, the sociocultural context (emigration, chain migration, return migration, and migration linkages and networks), political factors (including human rights, minority rights and security, regional integration and economic cooperation, and the impact of structural adjustment programs), and a prediction of future emigration dynamics. It is concluded that refugee flows remain a major factor in eastern African countries but the development of human resources in the northern portion of the region indicates development of potential labor migration from this area. Data constraints have limited measurement of emigration in this region and may contribute to the seeming indifference of most eastern African countries to emigration policies. Emigration in this region has been triggered by deteriorating economic and political conditions and is expected to increase.     

International migration and sustainable human development in eastern and southern Africa

International migration in eastern and southern Africa (ESA) is rarely addressed in population and development policies or regional organizations, and regional organizations must in the articulation of sustainable shared development identify the role of international migration. Poor quality data on international migration hampers analysis. Sustainable, shared, and human development within the region are subregional issues. Permanent migration is characterized among ESA countries as increasing demographic ethnic pluralism that may result in redrawing of territorial boundaries and further population movement. Portuguese and Arab settlement and integration in eastern areas resulted in coexistence, while European immigration to South Africa resulted in racial segregation. Modern colonial settlement and the aftermath of political conflict resulted in independent countries after the 1960s and outmigration of nonAfrican groups. Much of the labor migration in ESA is unskilled workers moving to South African mining regions. Labor migration to Zimbabwe and Zambia declined after the 1960s. The formation of the Common Market for ESA and the potential merger with the Preferential Trade Area and South African Development Community is a key approach to integration of migration into regional cooperation and shared development. Refugee movements create the most problems. Prior to 1992 ESA countries accounted for 83.4% of refugees, particularly in Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Some countries blame poor economic performance on the deluge of refugees. Illegal migration is currently detected because of the required work permits, but the adoption of the Common Market would obscure this phenomenon. Human development is affected most by migrations related to drought, labor migration to strong economic areas, and return migration. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought and Development needs to become more active and establish better policies on nomadic and refugee movements and displaced populations. Movement of educated populations to countries lacking in trained and skilled human resources is a future challenge. Strategies of immigration should facilitate economic development.     

The problem of reconciling divergent perspectives on urban crime: Personal experience,social ideology and scholarly research

The author examines influences of his personal experience with crime, his ideology, and his theoretical knowledge on his approach to the study of crime. Personal experience led to observations that (a) responses to crime are often gut-level rather than rational, (b) both street crime and the criminal justice system are characterized by incompetence, and (c) the retributive impulse must be considered in the study of crime. The radical ideology of the author led to the conclusion that crime is linked with the structure of the economic system. Finally, the author's scholarly knowledge led to recognition of the importance of the causality/meaning and determinism/voluntarism debates for the study of crime and for policy planning. He concludes that one must recognize the importance of all three sources of one's understanding of crime in order to engage in criminological research.

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The "Positivity Bias" inEvaluations of Public Figures:Evidence Against Instrument Artifacts

The "positivity bias" is a term used to describe the consistentfavorable evaluation of public figures found in surveys overthe past 40 years. This paper explored several possible artifactualexplanations for this bias,focusing on the survey instrumentitself. Two experiments varied the labeling and ordering ofscale endpoints, the affective value of the initial contextevaluated, and the presence or absence of a prestigious jobtitle associated with the nameof the public figure. None ofthe variations produced significantly different levels of positivitythan the standard control condition used in each experiment.RichardR. Lau is a graduate student in social psychology at the Universityof California, Los Angeles. David O. Sears is Professor of Psychologyand Political Science at UCLA. Richard Centers is Professorof Psychology at UCLA. This research was supported in part byGrant #SOC73-09153 A03 from the National Science Foundationto David O. Sears. The authors wish to expess their thanks toMark Williams, who did most of the coding and checking involvedin the survey.     

Declining world fertility: trends,causes, implications

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."     

Toward an assessment of the social role of rural midwives and its implication for the family planning program: an Iranian case study

An axiom of family planning programming is the importance of culturally-appropriate communicators and motivators. Traditional midwives seem ideal for this task but few studies have been done to verify this assumption by analyzing the midwife's social role as perceived by the community. 325 married women and 81 unmarried girls from a "model village" near Shiraz were interviewed by female undergraduates. 82.5% of the women are of childbearing age; 66% married before 14 years; 33% use contraception, mostly the pill, but most want large families because they expect high child mortality rates. Most of the older women are able to assist in childbirth but none, except the village's one recognized midwife, who is considered to have divine backing, will do so except in an emergency. The midwife's activities cause her to be held in low esteem by the community because 1) she has contact with a woman's sexual parts and this fact is public; 2) she has contact with vaginal excretia which are, in Islam, polluting; and 3) she is paid for her services, which labels her as a woman "without shame". The midwife is, however, widely used since women and their husbands fear the trip to the hospital and treatment by a male doctor much more than a midwife-supervised birth. The midwife in the study village had been there only 2 years and feels that she is not fully trusted. She is not consulted on birth control at all, because women expect the pill to be dispensed by doctors and consider other methods as a matter strictly between husband and wife. The midwife's role seems to complement that of the government health authorities rather than compete. The midwife's low status and circumscribed sphere of activity, the weak respect in which her advice is held and the pattern of having only 1 recognized midwife in a village at a time make the midwife a poor agent for family planning services. Her effectiveness as an agent of social change could be improved by training her in hygienic practices of childbirth and by redefining her role-relationship with the community. Studies should be done to identify the areas where traditional birth attendants are the best family planning communicators and those where that role is best left to others.     

Characteristics of Older Adult Problem Gamblers Calling a Gambling Helpline

Background Few investigations have characterized groups of older adults with gambling problems, and published reports are currently limited by small samples of older adult problem gamblers. Gambling helplines represent a widespread mechanism for assisting problem gamblers to move into treatment settings. Given data from older adult problem gamblers in treatment, we hypothesized that older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers calling a gambling helpline would be less likely to report gambling-related problems.Design and methods Logistic regression analyses were performed on data obtained from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001, inclusive, from callers with gambling problems (N = 1,084) contacting the Connecticut Council on Problem Gambling Helpline.Results Of the 1,018 phone calls used in the logistic regression analyses, 168 (16.5%) were from older adults and 850 (83.5%) from younger adults. Age-related differences were observed in demographic features, types and patterns of gambling reported as problematic, gambling-related problems and psychiatric symptoms, substance use problems, patterns of indebtedness, and family histories of addictive disorders. Older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers were more likely to report having lower incomes, longer durations of gambling, fewer types of problematic gambling, and problems with casino slot machine gambling and less likely to report gambling-related anxiety, family problems, illegal behaviors and arrests, drug problems, indebtedness to bookies or acquaintances, family histories of drug abuse, and problems with casino table gambling.Conclusions Older as compared with younger adult problem gamblers calling a gambling helpline differ on many clinically relevant features. The findings suggest the need for improved and unique prevention and treatment strategies for older adults with gambling problems.     

Regional Religions?: Extending the “Semi-involuntary” Thesis of African-American Religious Participation

This research examines religious affiliation and church attendance among African-Americans in three different regions of the United States to evaluate the thesis that the Black church represents a semi-involuntary institution shaped by historical dynamics of segregation in the rural South. We extend the analyses of others who have found the rural South to have distinctive church participation patterns by examining two nationally representative data sets (the 1972–1996 General Social Surveys and the 1984 National Alcohol Study). We explore both level and type of church attendance of African-Americans, and how patterns differ by region. Further, we refine prior analyses by (1) differentiating between members of historically White and conservative churches from those in the black mainline, (2) examining racial segregation, and (3) focusing on the type of church attendance (rather than just overall level). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression models support the thesis that the rural South exhibits some distinctive patterns that make the semi-involuntary institution notion a useful concept, although patterns not predicted by the thesis are also found. The semi-involuntary thesis is also used to illuminate some church attendance patterns observed outside the rural South.     

A panel study of migration,self-selection and household real income

The impact of migration on income for Swedish multi-adult households is examined using panel data pertaining to a sample of stable household constellations during the period 1980–1990. In contrast to previous studies, data on household disposable income is employed in estimating the income function. The empirical results indicate no significant effect on real disposable income from migration. In addition, the hypothesis of no self-selection, or zero correlation between the errors in the decision function and the income function, cannot be rejected. Received: 10 May 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996