Developments and new dimensions in econometrics

Summary This special issue of the Journal of the German Statistical Society presents 14 papers with surveys on the development and new topics in econometrics. The articles aim to demonstrate how German econometricians see the discipline from their specific view. They briefly describe the main strands and emphasize some recent methods.     

Instabile Beschäftigung

Sociologists and economists emphasize the relevance of employment stability for labour market participants and the welfare state. Consequently, changes in the distribution of stable and unstable employment are discussed intensively and controversially. Based on the IAB Employment Subsample 1975–2001 (regional sample) and the second collection of the SFB 580-Firmpanel the paper analyses trends and determinants of employment stability. The results show: Employment becomes more unstable. Past “barriers of mobility” of the job market theory against an expansion of open job markets, like production and receipt of firm specific knowledge or readiness to perform, prove as a little stable.     

Goal Engagement During the School–Work Transition: Beneficial for All,Particularly for Girls

The school‐to‐work transition presents a substantial regulatory challenge for youth in modern societies. Based on the action‐phase model of developmental regulation, we investigated the effects of goal engagement on transition outcomes in a high‐density longitudinal study of noncollege‐bound German adolescents (N=362). Career‐related goal engagement was important for attaining a desired career goal (i.e., apprenticeship) for girls who generally faced unfavorable employment opportunities. For boys, goal engagement did not predict the attainment of an apprenticeship. Goal engagement was nonetheless beneficial for well‐being, predicting positive affect for both girls and boys. This effect was not mediated by attainment of an apprenticeship. The findings elucidate the role of goal engagement under structural and temporal constraints and suggest possible avenues for intervention.     

Pseudo latent models: Goodness of fit measures, residuals, estimation, testing, and simulation

Binary response models consider pseudo-R ² measures which are not based on residuals while several concepts of residuals were developed for tests. In this paper the endogenous variable of the latent model corresponding to the binary observable model is substituted by a pseudo variable. Then goodness of fit measures and tests can be based on a joint concept of residuals as for linear models. Different kinds of residuals based on probit ML estimates are employed. The analytical investigations and the simulation results lead to the recommendation to use standardized residuals where there is no difference between observed and generalized residuals. In none of the investigated situations this estimator is far away from the best result. While in large samples all considered estimators are very similar, small sample properties speak in favour of residuals which are modifications of those suggested in the literature. An empirical application demonstrates that it is not necessary to develop new testing procedures for the observable models with dichotomous regressands. Well-know approaches for linear models with continuous endogenous variables which are implemented in usual econometric packages can be used for pseudo latent models. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Randomization. pro and contra 1

We discuss a stochastic urn model in which there are two urns A and B. B is originally empty and A contains some fixed number of white and black balls. A player selects integers n>O and b>O. Balls are drawn with replacement in A and balls of the same color are put in B as long as the number of white balls in B exceeds (b-1) times the number of black balls in B. Under this condition, the player stops after drawing n+bx balls and is declared to be a winnear if urn B has x black balls. This number of black balls, x, is shown to have the generalized negative binomial distribution     

On the gain in power when using additional observations

In the present paper the question in which cases additional observations are useless for testing two simple hypotheses is considered. It turns out that in all but trivial cases two additional observations strictly decrease the risk, while for one additional observation a characterization of this problem is given.     

Dealing with Ethical Dilemmas in Organizational Change Processes

Several theories exist on how managers think aboutethical responsibilities in a business environment.Some stress the economic way of thinking and explainwhy there is no space for moral reasoning in abusiness environment. Others claim that in a businessenvironment also moral considerations can play animportant role. In this article, we will explore theway managers have actually dealt with potentialdilemmas in organizational change processes,especially changes with drastic consequences foremployees. Do managers consider moral arguments? Dothey feel a moral responsibility towards theiremployees? And in what way do they include a moralresponsibility in the decision process and itsoutcomes? These questions were investigated throughcase studies in two organisations and interviews withsix managers in other companies. The framework whichis used in the research will be described and the mainresults of the field-research will be presented. Wedid find that managers actually strived to some extentfor fair and morally responsible solutions in dilemmasituations, but in another way then we expectedbeforehand. Managers did not base their acting onmoral arguments. Instead they used a more pragmaticapproach wherein acting in a morally responsible wayis based on strategic arguments, such as the positiveeffects for the organisation in the long run.