Subjective machines: Probabilistic risk assessment based on deep learning of soft information

For several years machine learning methods have been proposed for risk classification. While machine learning methods have also been used for failure diagnosis and condition monitoring, to the best of our knowledge, these methods have not been used for probabilistic risk assessment. Probabilistic risk assessment is a subjective process. The problem of how well machine learning methods can emulate expert judgments is challenging. Expert judgments are based on mental shortcuts, heuristics, which are susceptible to biases. This paper presents a process for developing natural language-based probabilistic risk assessment models, applying deep learning algorithms to emulate experts’ quantified risk estimates. This allows the risk analyst to obtain an a priori risk assessment when there is limited information in the form of text and numeric data. Universal sentence embedding (USE) with gradient boosting regression (GBR) trees trained over limited structured data presented the most promising results. When we apply these models’ outputs to generate survival distributions for autonomous systems’ likelihood of loss with distance, we observe that for open water and ice shelf operating environments, the differences between the survival distributions generated by the machine learning algorithm and those generated by the experts are not statistically significant.     

Development and Validation of a Measure of Living Standards for Older People

Living standards are an effective way to assess socioeconomic status in relation to health but controversy remains about their assessment, particularly for older people. Sen’s capability framework shifts attention from material conditions to opportunities for choice enabled by material resources. To develop this promising approach, this paper reports on the development of a measure of living standards for older people based on Sen’s capability framework. Six living standards domains were established from thematic analysis of 143 interviews with people aged over 65 years in New Zealand. Questionnaire items were developed and tested to assess the extent to which older people had the freedom to pursue these domains. The 73 items were tested for face validity in interviews. Following this, a revised version was posted to 2,000 people aged over 65 years randomly selected from the New Zealand electoral roll and 1,064 completed questionnaires were returned. Item screening for response rates and spread reduced the items to 34. Confirmatory factor analysis of these 34 items suggested that the six theoretical domains were supported. Following model development, 25 items assessing the six domains were selected. Results to date show that this measure of living standards (LS-Cap) is a promising instrument to assess living standards as the freedom to access valued needs.     

The “Replacement Child”: On Adoption,Haunting, and the Unlived Life

What does it mean to live in the shadow of an older sibling’s unlived life? This study draws on notions of haunting, guilt, fantasy, and envy to explore the experience of the “replacement child.” Art Spiegelman’s (1986) Maus tells the story of what it was like to occupy the place of his older brother, who died during the Holocaust. This is intertwined with my own account of adoption and replacement. The dead sibling is perceived as a ghostly presence, shaping the possibilities of who and what the “replacement child” will become.     

Covert social movement networks and the secrecy-efficiency trade off: The case of the UK suffragettes (1906–1914)

This paper formulates and empirically tests a number of hypotheses regarding the impact of covertness upon network structure. Specifically, hypotheses are deduced from theoretical arguments regarding a ‘secrecy-efficiency trade off’ which is said to shape covert networks. The paper draws upon data concerning the UK suffragettes. It is taken from a publicly archived UK Home Office document listing 1992 court appearances (for suffrage related activities), involving 1214 individuals and 394 court sessions, between 1906 and 1914. Network structure at earlier phases of suffragette activism, when the movement was less covert, is compared with that during the final phase, when it was more covert and meets the definitional criteria of what we call a ‘covert social movement network’ (CSMN). Support for the various hypotheses tested is variable but the key claims derived from the idea of the secrecy-efficiency trade off are supported. Specifically, the suffragettes’ network becomes less dense and less degree centralised as it becomes more covert.     

Women in Procrustean Beds: Strength Testing and the Workplace

Pre-employment strength testing in its present form supports employment practices which exclude women from manual handling tasks traditionally assigned to men. However, several lines of reasoning lead us to think that pre-employment testing is a Procrustean bed which imposes unreasonable requirements on most women. Examination of some tests and their scientific underpinnings leads us to conclude that they may result in discrimination. Women often approach manual tasks in ways different from men, so that pre-employment tests developed around the ways men usually perform these tasks are poor predictors of women’s performance at real-life jobs. We also question the fact that pre-employment testing involves the types of requirements imposed in men’s traditional work, but not women’s. This perspective leads us to propose a less rigid notion of physical strength and to introduce the concept of human-task interaction. Representations of human capacity based on sexual stereotypes may conceal health and safety problems in job requirements which should be addressed directly, leading to more constructive propositions regarding job design and employee selection. We propose that standards be set for job requirements, such that all manual handling jobs become physically accessible to at least 75% of all workers.     

Emotional abuse and neglect: a time for reappraisal

This paper explores, from a UK perspective, issues surrounding policy and practice in cases of neglect, which inevitably involves emotional abuse. It does not address cases of emotional abuse in which neglect does not occur. The paper argues that there is a sufficient body of knowledge on the necessary conditions for healthy child development and factors associated with psychological/ emotional disorders in childhood for social workers to be more proactive in work with such cases. There is, however, a need for this evidence to be assembled and organized in ways which will be useful to social workers. Nonetheless, intervention in such cases is unlikely to become more effective unless some of the reasons for the'neglect of neglecf are better understood and addressed. In the second part of the paper, a range of factors influencing such work is considered, related to the professional, organizational and legal context within which social workers in the UK operate.
The paper draws on an ESRC funded project, which ended in 1995, of social workers' judgements in cases of child sexual abuse and neglect     

Priority Topics in the Study of Environmental Risk in Developing Countries: Report on a Workshop Held at the East–West Center, August, 1988

The rapid industrialization occurring in developing regions of the world brings not only economic benefits, but changes in the types and severity of health and environmental problems that each region experiences. As the industrialized world moves toward the use of risk assessment methodologies to aid in problem evaluation and regulatory and policy decision analysis, it seems inevitable that these methodologies will be applied globally. The changes brought about by rapid industrialization, however, must be viewed within the context of societies that are still struggling with the more traditional and basic environmental problems associated with urban and rural poverty. The urgency of development and the lack of adequate resources for characterizing health and environmental changes, often present under these circumstances, offer special challenges to the application of risk assessment methodologies.     

Non-estrogen-based treatments for menopausal symptoms

The British Menopause Society Council is committed to provide up-to-date authoritative reviews to aid health professionals to inform and advise women about key issues in postreproductive health. This guidance refers to non-estrogen-based treatments for menopausal symptoms, such as hot flushes, symptoms of urogenital atrophy and lack of sexual desire. Treatment of choice should be based on up to-date information and targeted to individual women's needs. Non-hormonal strategies may be useful for women with estrogen-dependent disease such as breast cancer.     

Primary prevention of coronary heart disease in women

The British Menopause Society Council is committed to provide up-to-date authoritative reviews to aid health professionals to inform and advise women about key issues in postreproductive health. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a leading cause of death in women. Observational studies have consistently shown estrogen to help prevent CHD in postmenopausal women. The large randomized controlled Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial did not confirm these observational findings. However, further analyses of the WHI study as well as the observational Nurses' Health Study have now found that the timing of onset of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use is important and that estrogen may have a protective role in CHD in women aged 50-59 years. This consensus statement will examine the evidence regarding HRT and non-estrogen therapies (lipid lowering agents, aspirin, antihypertensives, antidiabetic medications, selective estrogen receptor modulators [SERMs]) as well as diet, lifestyle and smoking cessation in the primary prevention of CHD in women.