Bayesian Forecasting With Stable Seasonal Patterns

A multiplicative seasonal forecasting model for cumulative events in which, conditional on end- of-season totals being given and seasonal shape being known, it is shown that events occurring within the season are multinomially distributed is presented. The model uses the information contained in the arrival of new events to obtain a posterior distribution for end-of-season totals. Bayesian forecasts are obtained recursively in two stages: first, by predicting the expected number and variance of event counts in future intervals within the remaining season, and then by predicting revised means and variances for end-of-season totals based on the most recent forecast error.     

Electricity consumption changes following solar adoption: Testing for a solar rebound

We use household-level data to explore residential electricity use patterns following installation of solar panels. Solar adoption leads to an increase in total electricity consumption relative to a matched non-adopting control group. Our point estimate translates to a rebound effect of 28.5%, suggesting that nearly a third of the electricity produced by a customer's solar panels is used for increased energy services, rather than reduced grid electricity consumption. We explore several potential drivers of an increase in electricity consumption. These results have important implications for electricity planning and policy, suggesting that rooftop solar stimulates additional demand for electricity.     

The Development of Students' Mathematics Self‐Concept in Relation to Gender: Different Countries,Different Trajectories?

Gender differences in the development of children's and adolescents' academic self‐perceptions have received increasing attention in recent years. This study extends previous research by examining the development of mathematics self‐concept across grades 7–12 in three cultural settings: Australia (Sydney; N=1,333), the United States (Michigan; N=2,443), and Germany (four federal states; N=4,688). Results of latent growth curve models document very similar patterns of self‐concept development in males and females in the three settings. First, gender differences in favor of boys were observed at the beginning of the observation period (grade 7). Second, gender was not significantly related to self‐concept change in either group, meaning that initial differences persisted across time. Third, the results provided no evidence that the form of the longitudinal change trajectories for mathematics self‐concept differed across the cultural settings. This pattern of results is inconsistent with explanatory models that predict converging or diverging gender differences in mathematics self‐concept. Furthermore, the results indicate that self‐concept development may be highly similar across western cultural settings.     

What Narrows the Stepgap? Closeness Between Parents and Adult (Step)Children in Germany

Using data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) based on 11,746 intergenerational family relationships, the present study examined differences in parental closeness across relations with multiple, coresidential, and non‐coresidential adolescent and adult children. Replicating previous research in a multilevel analysis across families, the authors found a strong positive effect of biological descent on closeness in comparison to adoptive and steprelations; this parental favoritism toward biological offspring was partly explained by selection via parental resources and attitudes. Supplemental within‐parent fixed effect analyses suggested that the relative disadvantage of stepchildren was offset by longer duration of the stepparent–stepchild relationship, lower household income, fewer children in the household, and high parental affirmation of familism.     

Social Workers as Boundary Spanners: Reframing our Professional Identity for Interprofessional Practice

One of the more difficult tasks for social work educators is socializing students into a professional identity. Social identity theory provides a lens to consider what is needed for a social work identity that will continue to be salient for students as they move into practice. Framing social workers as boundary spanners might offer students a professional identity that is congruent with core values, reflects what social workers do and places less emphasis on old debates about the profession. It also positions students well for work in the increasingly interprofessional realms of health and social care. I consider how social workers are well equipped to meet the demand created by ‘joined-up working’ for people with boundary-spanning expertise. Seeing ourselves as boundary spanners is one way to reconcile our professional and interprofessional identities, thereby increasing the chances that our students will continue to identify as social workers when they move into interprofessional practice.     

‘You Are Germany’– ‘I Am Australian’: The construction of national unity through diversity in select examples from Australia and Germany

This article explores the construction of national unity through diversity by analysing two case studies from Germany and Australia: the television campaign ‘You Are Germany’ and the song ‘I Am Australian’. It places both examples in a broader context of forging national unity through diversity and argues that diversity has occasionally been hijacked as a nationalist argument to advance national identity and unity. This study explores the different aspects of diversity appearing in both cases under study, identifies those parts of diversity being excluded and asks how national unity is being forged through recourse to diversity.     

Median split, k-group split, and optimality in continuous populations

Continuous populations are grouped in many social, economic, medical, or technical fields of research. However, by grouping them, a lot of information provided by the continuous population is lost. Especially the median split, which is still adopted by many researchers, and its generalization to an equiprobable k-group split lead to a high efficiency loss. Here, this loss of information is investigated by analytical and numerical analyses for some typical symmetric and skew population distributions often found in applications. Various distribution parameters, numbers of groups, and split methods are taken from theoretical considerations and real data sets. Losses sometimes in excess of 50% can be reduced by optimal grouping.     

Relative Deprivation and Intergroup Prejudice

Using three diverse European surveys, we test the relationship between relative deprivation (RD) and anti-immigrant prejudice. We find that both group relative deprivation (GRD) and individual relative deprivation (IRD) are found primarily among working-class respondents who are politically alienated. We also find that GRD, but not IRD, serves as a proximal correlate of prejudice. IRD's effects on prejudice are largely mediated through GRD. In addition, GRD partially mediates the effects of such distal predictors of prejudice as education and family income. Finally, blaming the victim mediates in part the GRD link with prejudice. These results lead to a socially situated path model of RD's effects on prejudice with public policy implications.     

Nonparametric Matching and Efficient Estimators of Homothetically Separable Functions

For vectors z and w and scalar v, let r(v, z, w) be a function that can be nonparametrically estimated consistently and asymptotically normally, such as a distribution, density, or conditional mean regression function. We provide consistent, asymptotically normal nonparametric estimators for the functions G and H, where r(v, z, w) = H[vG(z), w], and some related models. This framework encompasses homothetic and homothetically separable functions, and transformed partly additive models r(v, z, w) = h[v + g(z), w] for unknown functions gand h Such models reduce the curse of dimensionality, provide a natural generalization of linear index models, and are widely used in utility, production, and cost function applications. We also provide an estimator of Gthat is oracle efficient, achieving the same performance as an estimator based on local least squares when H is known.