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991.
Anthony O’Hagan 《The American statistician》2019,73(1):69-81
ABSTRACTExpert opinion and judgment enter into the practice of statistical inference and decision-making in numerous ways. Indeed, there is essentially no aspect of scientific investigation in which judgment is not required. Judgment is necessarily subjective, but should be made as carefully, as objectively, and as scientifically as possible.Elicitation of expert knowledge concerning an uncertain quantity expresses that knowledge in the form of a (subjective) probability distribution for the quantity. Such distributions play an important role in statistical inference (for example as prior distributions in a Bayesian analysis) and in evidence-based decision-making (for example as expressions of uncertainty regarding inputs to a decision model). This article sets out a number of practices through which elicitation can be made as rigorous and scientific as possible.One such practice is to follow a recognized protocol that is designed to address and minimize the cognitive biases that experts are prone to when making probabilistic judgments. We review the leading protocols in the field, and contrast their different approaches to dealing with these biases through the medium of a detailed case study employing the SHELF protocol.The article ends with discussion of how to elicit a joint probability distribution for multiple uncertain quantities, which is a challenge for all the leading protocols. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. 相似文献
992.
Amy Werman Fatemeh Adlparvar Jane K. Horowitz Micah O. Hasegawa 《Journal of Social Work Education》2019,55(2):251-264
Difficult conversations about isms, power, privilege, and oppression are an essential part of social work education, and they present unique challenges for students and faculty. The current study examined students’ and faculty’s perceptions of the safety of the classroom and the competence of the faculty in facilitating difficult conversations at a graduate school of social work in New York City. Student and faculty versions of a survey were distributed to both groups. Results indicated students rated the experience of having difficult conversations at the school significantly more negatively than the faculty did. The majority of respondents expressed the need for courses and training to be more fluent in having difficult conversations. Future directions are discussed based on the findings. 相似文献
993.
ABSTRACT The literature on industrial policy in Africa has generally explained its political origins in terms of ruling elites’ distribution of benefits to their supporters. However, in competitive political contexts in which policies are deeply political and designed to satisfy clients, such as policies that support party donors, the problem of policy discontinuity is bound to arise because a change in ruling party is bound to alter the direction of distributional policies. The current paper uses Nigeria’s backward integration policy (BIP), an industrial policy on cement production, to sharpen the analytical distinction between the origins and persistence. Although the ruling elites’ political quest for survival explains the origin of Nigeria’s industrial policy on cement (ruling elites were in search of re-election funds and teamed up with domestic capitalists for donations, who in turn influenced the political elites to create policies in their area of business), it does not explain the continuation. 相似文献
994.
995.
Cullen Greggory J. Yule Carolyn Walters David O’Grady William 《Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal》2022,39(4):409-423
Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal - The adverse mental health outcomes of youth in-care have been examined from a number of disciplinary perspectives. A sociological approach emphasizes the... 相似文献
996.
Optimizing minimum information pair-copula using genetic algorithm to select optimal basis functions
Constructing pair-copula using the minimum information approach is an appropriate and flexible way to survey the dependency structure between variables of interest. Minimum information pair-copula method approximates multivariate copula by applying some constraints between desired variables that are elicited from the data itself or experts’ judgment. In minimum information pair-copula, selecting basis constraints is a challenge. In this article, we apply genetic algorithms as a heuristic way to select basis constraints to optimize approximated pair-copula. The results gained show that our method optimizes model selection criteria and lead to better pair-copula approximation. Finally, we apply our proposed method to approximate pair-copula density in real dataset. 相似文献
997.
Adefunke O. Ekine 《Gender Issues》2018,35(4):318-329
Gender issues have been a research concern within the education community at all levels in the last few decades as education is regarded as a critical tool in development and the most effective tool to empower women to be able to live a more productive life as they access higher education. Despite the increase in access to higher education and women being in the majority in the teaching profession; it is still a herculean task for women attain top management positions especially in African universities because of cultural factors and patriarchal system of leadership. This situation is often described as a “chilly climate” due to both overt and covert behaviours and systemic barriers that needs attention. This paper therefore highlights the narrative stories of women leaders in Tai Solarin University of Education, in Nigeria where the researcher works as told by selected women leaders of their struggles, challenges and choices in the course of duty. 相似文献
998.
Christine O’Farrelly 《Children & Society》2021,35(1):34-47
Interventions aimed at improving children's lives are widespread and research evaluating these is central to policy decisions that affect their lives. Although there is an increasing move in intervention and evaluation research to include stakeholders’ perspectives this rarely extends to children's voices. As a psychologist committed to children's rights, this article explores my experiences of working at times on the fringes of my own discipline, drawing on wide-ranging resources and collaborating with other disciplines. The article reflects on the challenges and opportunities of multidisciplinary research and bringing young children's perspectives into these places where they are rarely heard. 相似文献
999.
O. Sysoev A. Grimvall O. Burdakov 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2013,83(4):627-640
The variance of the error term in ordinary regression models and linear smoothers is usually estimated by adjusting the average squared residual for the trace of the smoothing matrix (the degrees of freedom of the predicted response). However, other types of variance estimators are needed when using monotonic regression (MR) models, which are particularly suitable for estimating response functions with pronounced thresholds. Here, we propose a simple bootstrap estimator to compensate for the over-fitting that occurs when MR models are estimated from empirical data. Furthermore, we show that, in the case of one or two predictors, the performance of this estimator can be enhanced by introducing adjustment factors that take into account the slope of the response function and characteristics of the distribution of the explanatory variables. Extensive simulations show that our estimators perform satisfactorily for a great variety of monotonic functions and error distributions. 相似文献
1000.