Migration information campaigns: How to analyse their impact?

Information campaigns aim at discouraging potential migrants from leaving their countries irregularly. This article discusses how to analyse the impact of such campaigns by identifying different research lines in the literature. The impact of migration information campaigns may be explored by, firstly, focusing on transnational migratory data and inter-state relations (the macro-level); secondly, by investigating their impact on narratives within societies (the meso-level); and, finally, by investigating the micro-level of their influence on migratory decision-making. At each level, scholars face considerable methodological challenges to filter out the impact of campaigns. This article suggests that a promising research avenue is to analyse more widely the narratives and information sources upon which (potential) migrants rely. Opening up the research focus may avoid the risk of over-emphasising the impact of information campaigns by only looking at them. It allows to better understand which sources of information actually influence migratory behaviour.     

A new asylum law for the KRI and Iraq: Reality or wishful thinking?

Despite having its own internal population displacement due to conflict and civil war, Iraq and the Kurdistan Region continue to accommodate large numbers of refugees from Iran, Palestine, Syria and Turkey. However, Iraq has not ratified the internationally recognized legal framework for the protection of refugees. Currently, the protection offered to asylum seekers in Iraq is regulated by secondary legislation, mostly in the form of administrative circulars. The lack of an applicable law regulating the status of asylum seekers has led to local-level ad hoc policy implementation. Similarly, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has no legal provisions in its domestic legislation to regulate the status of refugees. This study presents: (a) the argument that Iraq must adopt legislation to regulate the entry, exit and stay of migrants, in line with international protection for both asylum seekers and the provision of adequate rights to refugees, and in accordance with international human rights standards; (b) a proposal for provisions for such legislation in Iraq; and (c) a timely impetus to re-energize local strategies aimed at filling these normative legal gaps through domestic agreements rather than regional and/or international ones.     

Coordination of teams,meetings, and managerial processes in construction projects: using a lean and complex adaptive mechanism

In a construction project, the ‘production planning and control’ function drives the deployment of construction operations. A reliable function is therefore essential. Currently, this function is supplied using economic/contractual and production processes. This approach, however, disregards the explicit regulation of teams, meetings, and the linkages between the function’s elements. Using Lean Management and Complexity theories, we studied a mechanism to address this issue. Using data from an 18-storey building construction project in a case study, this paper analyses a prototype system for driving the function using their linkages. A questionable behaviour beyond the function’s capability was found. This behaviour involves complex, flexible, and push features, focused on execution, where the linkages driven by teams, meetings and processes cause variation from 10% up to 54% in the failure reasons, the progress, and the reliability. These findings suggest a function driven by its complexity level. These new insights require further study.     

Histogram Model with Plausible Parametric Detection Function for Line Transect Data

This article develops a new model that combines between the histogram and plausible parametric detection function to estimate the population density (abundance) by using line transects technique. A parametric detection function is introduced to improve the properties of the classical histogram estimator. Asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator are derived and an expression for the asymptotic mean square error (AMSE) is given. A general formula for the optimal choice of the histogram bin width based on AMSE is derived. Moreover, other possible alternative procedures to select the bin width are suggested and studied via simulation technique. The results show the superiority of the proposed estimators over both the classical histogram and the usual kernel estimators in most reasonable cases. In addition, the simulation results indicate that the choice of a plausible detection function is less sensitive than the choice of a bin width on the performance of the proposed estimator.     

Sensitivity analysis for variance parameters in Bayesian simplex mixed models for proportional data

In this article, we present a Bayesian modeling for response variables restricted to the interval (0, 1), such as proportions and rates, using the simplex distribution for cases in which data have a longitudinal form, taking random effects into account. In order to investigate the stability of posterior distribution, we study through sensitivity analysis, the effect of three different uniparametric prior distributions for variance parameters of random effect on the final estimation. For this purpose, we consider homogeneous and heterogeneous structures for parameters in location and dispersion submodels. Models and results are illustrated with simulated and real data application.     

Predictors of short-term decay of cell phone contacts in a large scale communication network

Under what conditions is an edge present in a social network at time t likely to decay or persist by some future time t + Δt? Previous research addressing this issue suggests that the network range of the people involved in the edge, the extent to which the edge is embedded in a surrounding structure, and the age of the edge all play a role in edge decay. This paper uses weighted data from a large-scale social network built from cell-phone calls in an 8-week period to determine the importance of edge weight for the decay/persistence process. In particular, we study the relative predictive power of directed weight, embeddedness, newness, and range (measured as outdegree) with respect to edge decay and assess the effectiveness with which a simple decision tree and logistic regression classifier can accurately predict whether an edge that was active in one time period continues to be so in a future time period. We find that directed edge weight, weighted reciprocity and time-dependent measures of edge longevity are highly predictive of whether we classify an edge as persistent or decayed, relative to the other types of factors at the dyad and neighborhood level.     

Indigenous land rights and dynamics of the land market in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

This paper raises a number of important issues relating to legal and economic development concepts. It concentrates on the supply constraints affecting land development decisions of both private and public landowners in releasing land for development purposes. With reference to the indigenous land rights in Kuala Lumpur, this paper focuses on the restrictions in interest, which may limit the land from being transferred in the open market. With a limited market, the indigenous land achieves a lower value in the market place because transactions are limited within a particular group of people only. As a result, the market forces are restricted and the land development process for urban regeneration often comes to a halt. In examining the role of the indigenous land market in the redevelopment process of Kuala Lumpur, the study uses an institutional analysis to show the way in which these restrictions in interest affect landowners’ decisions and, thus, restrict the supply of land to real estate redevelopment. In conclusion, the paper shows various causes for land supply constraints and ways to improve these with the aim to undertake urban redevelopment initiatives considering pressure for more land in the market.     

转型期城镇贫困群体的成因及对策研究--以新疆地区为例

随着改革开放的逐步深入,中国城镇出现了大量的贫困人口。新疆的城镇贫困群体具有地域性、文化性等特征。呈现这一状况除社会原因外,还包括家庭及文化等个人原因。要减少城镇贫困人口,必须扩大就业,完善社会保障体系,调整分配方式等,以实现共同富裕和社会的和谐发展。     

Career story: Financial Services Statistician

Have you ever been direct mailed by Marks & Spencer Money? If so, the chances are it is because you were interested in the product, Omar Mohamed tells Helen Joyce. A statistician with M&S Money's Marketing Department, he believes that the fast-growing field of financial services is unjustly overlooked by job-seeking statisticians.     

Understanding the Elusive Black Box of Dynamic Capabilities

A major challenge for managers in turbulent environments is to make sound decisions quickly. Dynamic capabilities have been proposed as a means for addressing turbulent environments by helping managers extend, modify, and reconfigure existing operational capabilities into new ones that better match the environment. However, because dynamic capabilities have been viewed as an elusive black box, it is difficult for managers to make sound decisions in turbulent environments if they cannot effectively measure dynamic capabilities. Therefore, we first seek to propose a measurable model of dynamic capabilities by conceptualizing, operationalizing, and measuring dynamic capabilities. Specifically, drawing upon the dynamic capabilities literature, we identify a set of capabilities—sensing the environment, learning, coordinating, and integrating—that help reconfigure existing operational capabilities into new ones that better match the environment. Second, we propose a structural model where dynamic capabilities influence performance by reconfiguring existing operational capabilities in the context of new product development (NPD). Data from 180 NPD units support both the measurable model of dynamic capabilities and also the structural model by which dynamic capabilities influence performance in NPD by reconfiguring operational capabilities, particularly in higher levels of environmental turbulence. The study's implications for managerial decision making in turbulent environments by capturing the elusive black box of dynamic capabilities are discussed.