Two-stage electoral competition in two-party contests: persistent divergence of party positions

Models of party competition building on Downs (1957) have recognized that there are centrifugal and centripetal forces in party competition; but one such force, the existence of party primaries, has been remarkably neglected in recent literature. We consider party/candidate policy divergence in two-party competition in one dimension where there is a two-stage electoral process, e.g., a primary election (or caucus) among party supporters to select that party’s candidate followed by a general election. We develop a model in which (some or all) voters in the primary election are concerned with the likelihood that the primary victor will be able to win the general election and being concerned with that candidate’s policy position. This model is similar in all but technical details to that given in an almost totally neglected early paper in Public Choice Coleman (1971) 11:35–60, but we offer important new results on electoral dynamics for candidate locations. In addition to accounting for persistent party divergence by incorporating a more realistic model of the institutions that govern elections in the U.S., the model we offer gives rise to predictions that match a number of important aspects of empirical reality such as frequent victories for incumbents and greater than otherwise expected electoral success for the minority party in situations where that party has its supporters more closely clustered ideologically than the supporters of the larger party (in particular, with a concentration of voters between the party mean and the population mean).A much earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, Long Beach, California, March 24–26, 1995. We are indebted to Dorothy Green and to Clover Behrend-Gethard for bibliographic assistance and to Nicholas Miller and the late Peter Aranson for helpful suggestions.     

Photocopylore at work: aesthetics,collective creativity and the social construction of organizations

In this paper we develop a model of the photocopylore process consisting of selection, reproduction and distribution with further potential for consumption and elaboration. After explaining and illustrating these practices, which are always aesthetic and sometimes political, we discuss how our model contributes to theorizing social construction processes, both in terms of the creation and maintenance of organizational and transorganizational communities and of the social construction of technology and innovation.     

Book reviews

The Skewed Revolution: Trends in South African Higher Education 1988–1998. By David Cooper and George Subotzky. Cape Town: Education Policy Unit of the University of the Western Cape. 2001. 284 pages. Paperback

Africanizing Anthropology: Fieldwork, Networks and the Making of Cultural Knowledge in Central Africa. By Lyn Schumaker. Durham, NC: Duke University Press. 2001. 376 & xii pages.

On the Postcolony By Achille Mbembe. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. 2001. 274pp. Paperback.

Fighting Poverty: Labour Markets and Inequality in South African Studies. By Haroon Bhorat, Murray Leibbrandt, Muzi Maziya, Servaas van der Berg and Ingrid Woolard. Cape Town: University of Cape Town Press. 2001. 252 pages.     

Identity Development in Emancipated Young Adults Following Foster Care

This qualitative study explored the experiences of 12 youth who were emancipated from state‐sponsored foster care at age 18 and attempted to establish themselves independently. The findings were analyzed through the lens of two developmental theories: separation/individuation and relational/cultural. Interview data revealed that the often‐difficult experiences of emancipating from foster care influenced an evolving sense of self. Participants identified strongly with self‐sufficiency and help‐avoidance and reported an inaccessibility of peer support. Although much of the current literature focuses on critiques of public foster care programs, this study provides insights into how youth have been personally affected by emancipation. It also contains implications for social work practice with emancipated and soon to be emancipating youth.     

Beyond talk: Contributions of quantity and quality of communication to language success across socioeconomic strata

Infants from low-socioeconomic status (SES) households hear a projected 30 million fewer words than their higher-SES peers. In a recent study, Hirsh-Pasek et al. (Psychological Science, 2015; 26: 1071) found that in a low-income sample, fluency and connectedness in exchanges between caregivers and toddlers predicted child language a year later over and above quantity of talk (Hirsh-Pasek et al., Psychological Science, 2015; 26: 1071). Here, we expand upon this study by examining fluency and connectedness in two higher-SES samples. Using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, we sampled 20 toddlers who had low, average, and high language outcomes at 36 months from each of 2 groups based on income-to-needs ratio (INR; middle and high) and applied new coding to the mother–toddler interaction at 24 months. In the high-INR group, the quality of mother–toddler interaction at 24 months accounted for more variability in language outcomes a year later than did quantity of talk, quality of talk, or sensitive parenting. These results could not be accounted for by child language ability at 24 months. These effects were not found in the middle-INR sample. Our findings suggest that when the quality of interaction, fluency and connectedness, predicts language outcomes, it is a robust relation, but it may not be universal.     

A likelihood ratio test for the equality of proportions of two normal populations

In sampling inspection by variables, an item is considered defective if its quality characteristic Y falls below some specification limit L₀. We consider switching to a new supplier if we can be sure that the proportion of defective items for the new supplier is smaller than the proportion defective for the present supplier.

Assume that Y has a normal distribution. A test for comparing these proportions is developed. A simulation study of the performance of the test is presented.     

Robustness of the two-sample t-test umdeh violations of the homogeneity of farjance assumptioi

When the two-sample t-test has equal sample slies, it is widely considered to be a robust procedure (with respect to the significaoce level) under violatioa of the assuaptioo of equal variances. This paper is coa-earned with a quantification of the amount of robustness which this procedure has under such violations, The approach is through the concept of "religion of robustness" and the resluts show an extremely strong degree of robustness for the equal an extremely strong degree of robustness for the equal sample size t-test, probably more so than most statistyicians realise. This extremely high level of robustness, however, reduces quickly as the sample sizes begin to vary from equality. The regions of robustnes obtained show that while most users would likely be satisfied with the degree of robustness inherent when the two sample sizes each vary by 10% from equality, most would wish to be much more cautions when the variation is 20%. The study covers sample sizes n₁ -= n ² = 5(5)30(10)50 plus 10% and 20% variations thereof for the two-tailed test and nominal significance levels of 0.01 and 0.05.