Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

Assessment of patient satisfaction: development and refinement of a service evaluation questionnaire

A series of seven studies was conducted by the authors and their colleagues to produce an efficient measure of service satisfaction that can easily be related to symptom level, demographic characteristics, and type and extent of service utilization. The resulting measure, the Service Evaluation Questionnaire (SEQ) is a brief, global index that has excellent internal consistency and solid psychometric properties. Data from an extensive SEQ field study can be used as a comparison base for future applications of the two SEQ component scales, the CSQ-8 and the SCL-10. A new hypothesis has emerged from this series of studies that will guide future research: Service recipients may find if difficult to formally express dissatisfaction in the face of significant caring--however ineffectual--when the technical capacity to offer definitive treatment is not yet fully developed and when criteria for evaluating the efficacy of treatment are not yet crystal clear.     

The validity of indices for rural health manpower needs assessment

Population-to-practitioner ratios have long been the primary index in the designation of health manpower shortage areas. This paper documents that application of the widely used population-to-dentist index results in understatement of the need for dental health manpower in rural areas. Through the analysis of utilization data collected from a statewide health screening program in Colorado, the practice of sole reliance on the population-to-dentist indices as an indicator of need was tested. Another measure, the area-(square miles) to-dentist ratio was formulated, examined, and found to be a more useful referent of the need for additional health manpower in rural areas. Utilization of dental services in sparsely settled rural counties of Colorado was unrelated to population-to-dentist ratios. A strong, statistically significant association of utilization with land area-to-dentist ratios was found. The findings of this analysis suggest a need for reevaluation of needs assessment methodologies used in the designation of health manpower shortage areas. Indices more sensitive to consumer circumstance than to the number of health care providers available must be considered.     

Deterrence in the workplace: perceived certainty, perceived severity, and employee theft

The phenomenon of employee theft is examined empirically, utilizing a deterrence paradigm. Employees selected randomly from three different industry sectors and metropolitan areas were asked to self-report their involvement in a number of property theft activities within the employment setting. Using a weighted least-squares logit regression analysis, the study found that the perception of both the certainty and severity of organizational sanctions were related to employee theft. Males reported more theft than did females, but contrary to previous research, no gender/certainty or gender/severity interactions were observed. The best-fit model did, however, contain two significant first-order interactions: age/certainty and age/severity. These interactions strongly suggest that younger employees are not as deterrable as their older peers, especially under conditions of both high certainty and high severity of punishment. While a number of possible explanations might account for differential deterrability according to age, a commitment to or stakes in conformity explanation is proposed.     

A time series analysis of Swedish illegitimacy rates, 1911-1974

Using a sociodemographic model of the determinants of illegitimacy rates, a multivariate regression analysis of annual change in age-specific Swedish illegitimacy rates is applied to the 1911-74 period. The proxy measure of change in sexual activity was significant for all age groups. Legitimation rates for out-of-wedlock conceived births were significant for all ages except teenagers, and the final predictor, women's status, was significant for all ages except women 35-44. Explained variance for annual change was highest among ages 20-24 (66%), 25-29 (66%), and 30-34 (63%) and lower among teens (34%) and women 35-44 (47%). These results support earlier research that used a sociodemographic model to explain post-World War II change in cross-national illegitimacy rates among 23 developed countries.     

Public opinion and the privatization of welfare: some theoretical implications

The social policy of the Thatcher government is characterized by an abrupt shift in the direction of the private sector. To what extent does this reflect what people want? The Institute of Economic Affairs conclude from the only suitable national opinion survey that such a move is strongly supported. Our reanalysis of their data shows that this strand in public opinion can coexist with, and need not contradict, an equal public enthusiasm for state welfare. Such results have important implications for our understanding of social policy. We conclude, therefore, with a discussion of contrasting marxist and liberal accounts which seeks to show that the evidence of ambivalence in popular attitudes about the welfare state supports particular developments in theory.