An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.     

Relation of Goal Setting and Goal Sharing to Performance and Conflict for Interdependent Tasks

Despite the prevalence of goal setting in organizations, researchers have not thoroughly examined the implications of goal setting to work outcomes in interdependent work settings. A field survey (n= 442) assessed the relation of goal setting and goal sharing, the extent to which others are aware of an individual's work goal, to performance and conflict across varying levels of task interdependence. The results of moderated regression analyses demonstrate that in highly interdependent tasks, the use of goal setting resulted in lower performance levels. Moreover, goal setting and goal sharing in highly interdependent tasks resulted in individuals' reporting more somatic symptoms. The results are discussed in terms of clarifying the role of goal setting for interdependent tasks.     

Network Evening News Coverage of Environmental Risk

ABC, CBS, and NBC's carefully crafted and expensively produced evening news broadcasts devoted 1.7% of their air time to 564 stories about man-made environmental risks during the period from January 1984 to February 1986. Little relationship was found between amount of coverage and public health risk. Instead, the networks appeared to be using traditional journalistic determinants of news (timeliness, proximity, prominence, consequence, and human interest) plus the broadcast criterion of visual impact to determine the degree of coverage of risk issues. Government, industry, and citizens accounted for two-thirds of the sources cited by the networks. Experts and spokespersons for environmental advocacy groups were sparsely used as sources. Given the media's need for news pegs, acute and chronic risk stories were covered differently. Acute risk stories were reported in a clearly defined cycle, peaking on the second day with on-the-scene reports and film-clips of devastation. In keeping with a decrease in visual drama, later reports were shorter and emphasized legal and political considerations. Chronic risk coverage followed the release of new scientific, legal, or political information.     

The role of inferential accuracy in performance rating

The presence of shared implicit theories of performance is used in explaining the failure of behavioral anchors to improve performance ratings. It is proposed that efforts to improve rating accuracy also will be hampered by a preoccupation with observation. Instead, attention needs to be focused on the inferential accuracy of the rater and the cognitive processes and implicit theories upon which raters rely.     

The privatization of British Telecom—Its impact on management

This article describes the series of changes which British Telecom has gone through over the last 10 years or so— changes which have often been dramatic and highly publicized. Faced with the challenges of the fast-changing business environment of the past decade—the most obvious of which was the technological revolution—British Telecom was perceived to be safe and reliable, but slow to change and expensive. Its strengths were the widespread understanding and acceptance of the need for change, its reservoir of the necessary skills and talent, a sound commercial infrastructure and a corporate culture. The author describes the organizational changes which have taken place and looks to a future where change is endemic if a business is to survive.     

Final report of the Color Additive Scientific Review Panel

The Color Additives Scientific Review Panel considered whether there was information sufficient to perform a carcinogenic risk assessment on the colors D&C Red No. 19 (R-19), D&C Red No. 37 (R-37), D&C Orange No. 17 (O-17), D&C Red No. 9 (R-9), D&C Red No. 8 (R-8) and FD&C Red No. 3 (R-3) and to evaluate the assessments sent to FDA as part of the petitions for use of the colors for drug and external uses by the Cosmetic, Toiletry and Fragrance Association (CTFA). There is a lack of human data concerning the colors for making a human health assessment, so the assessments are based upon the extrapolation of animal data. The risk assessments are determined for exposure to single chemicals. Excluded from consideration are possible effects from exposure to multiple chemicals, such as co-carcinogenesis, promotion, synergism, antagonism, etc. In the light of recent efforts in establishing a consensus in risk assessment, the Panel has determined that the CTFA assessments for R-10, O-17, and R-9 are consistent with present acceptable usages, although it questions some of the assumptions used in the assessments. The Panel identified a number of general assumptions made, and discusses their validity, their impact on total uncertainty, and the potential options to address the gaps in understanding that necessitate the assumption. The Panel also derived revised risk estimates using more "reasonable" assumptions than "worst-case" situations, for 90th percentile and average exposure. For those assumptions that are easily quantifiable, the Panel's estimates are less than an order of magnitude lower than the CTFA risk estimates, indicating that the underestimates and overestimates of the CTFA risk estimates tend to balance each other. The impact of most of the assumptions is not quantifiable. The assessment for R-3 is complicated by the fact that there is no good skin penetrance study for this color. It was assumed that the penetrance is similar to that of another water-soluble xanthene color, R-19. It is expected that the absorption of the color is not likely to exceed that of the smaller molecule, R-19. Therefore, the risk estimates are similar to the CTFA estimates, but with different reasoning. The estimates for R-8 and R-37 are different from the others in that there is a lack of any exposure or toxicological information on these colors.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)