AUTOCORRELATED CASH FLOWS AND THE SELECTION OF A PORTFOLIO OF CAPITAL ASSETS *

Capital budgeting models for analyzing real assets typically are based on a set of restrictive assumptions that influence financial managers' decisions and may prevent optimization of the firm's objectives. This research examines the common restrictive assumption that cash flows are intertemporally independent by first developing an economic state and simulation model based on a Markov process for including autocorrelated cash flows in the capital budgeting decision process and then demonstrating why managers should include autocorrelated cash flows in capital budgeting models by empirically testing the impact of assuming intertemporally independent cash flows on capital budgeting decisions. The results indicate that ignoring autocorrelated cash flows seriously limits the ability of capital budgeting models to provide optimal investment decisions. The model also is very attractive for practical application because it can be implemented with a minimum number of estimates and provides the set of input data required by a number of capital budgeting models. A discussion of the implementation of the model is included.     

近600年来我国的旱灾与瘟疫

根据有关历史文献、气象资料、报表和地方志的统计结果 ,15— 19世纪 ,全国共发生旱灾 15次 ,总历时 4 9年 ,其中 14次有瘟疫伴生。北方旱灾 14次 ,13次有瘟疫伴生 ;南方旱灾 7次 ,均有瘟疫伴生 ,有 6次南北同旱。 2 0世纪 ,全国共发生旱灾 18次 ,其中 ,北方旱灾 17次 ,两次有瘟疫伴生 ;南方旱灾 11次 ,1次有瘟疫伴生。 2 0世纪的灾害发生率是前 5 0 0年的 6倍。该文指出 ,这是由于在全球工业化过程中 ,不断增加的温室气体产生了温室效应 ,使气候变暖、降水减少、持续冬暖所致。因此 ,该文建议加快实施西部开发 ,治理环境 ,实施节水、调水工程 ,提高防灾抗灾能力 ,以缓解南北旱灾和瘟疫的发生     

对西部林业生态环境建设资源配置方式的探讨

资源配置的方式是西部林业生态环境建设的重要问题 ,它决定着资源的合理利用和效益大小 ,也影响着我国西部地区经济发展的进程。该文探讨了在西部大开发的背景下 ,在林业实施跨越式发展的形势所需下 ,西部所进行的林业生态环境建设 ,如何进行资源配置方式的选择。在分析了关于计划和市场两种资源配置方式的观点后 ,认为根据西部目前的现实状况 ,西部林业生态环境建设应实行计划和市场相结合的资源配置方式     

The multinational transfer of competency-based foster parent assessment, selection, and training: a nine-country case study.

The UN Convention on the Rights of the Child mandates (Articles 19 and 20) that alternative care be available to protect children from maltreatment by parents and caregivers. Increasingly, countries around the world have recognized the benefits to child well-being of family-based care as an alternative to institutional care. The special if not extraordinary needs of children separated from parents because of abuse, neglect, and maltreatment and placed with foster families requires a commensurate effort to develop foster families who have special if not extraordinary skills. Methods that are effective and replicable across countries offer significant advantages, reducing investments in policies and practices that otherwise would have to be developed independently, country by country. This case study describes the factors that contributed to the transfer of knowledge in the assessment, selection, and training of foster parents and the impact to date.     

Der Hawthorne-Effekt – ein Effekt für viele Gelegenheiten?

It is shown that the concept of ?Hawthorne effect‘ was created many years after the Hawthorne studies in Western Electric Company. Presently, the ?Hawthorne effect‘ concept is increasingly used in social sciences and many other sciences. The concept is however used in different and occasionally digressive meanings. The question arises whether such a concept is useful at all. In addition, it is discussed why the rather imprecise reports of single Hawthorne field experiments have been spread as academic folklore, and why rather undefined concepts like the ?Hawthorne effect‘ are used so widely in psychology and social sciences.     

Construction Safety Risk Modeling and Simulation

By building on a genetic‐inspired attribute‐based conceptual framework for safety risk analysis, we propose a novel approach to define, model, and simulate univariate and bivariate construction safety risk at the situational level. Our fully data‐driven techniques provide construction practitioners and academicians with an easy and automated way of getting valuable empirical insights from attribute‐based data extracted from unstructured textual injury reports. By applying our methodology on a data set of 814 injury reports, we first show the frequency‐magnitude distribution of construction safety risk to be very similar to that of many natural phenomena such as precipitation or earthquakes. Motivated by this observation, and drawing on state‐of‐the‐art techniques in hydroclimatology and insurance, we then introduce univariate and bivariate nonparametric stochastic safety risk generators based on kernel density estimators and copulas. These generators enable the user to produce large numbers of synthetic safety risk values faithful to the original data, allowing safety‐related decision making under uncertainty to be grounded on extensive empirical evidence. One of the implications of our study is that like natural phenomena, construction safety may benefit from being studied quantitatively by leveraging empirical data rather than strictly being approached through a managerial perspective using subjective data, which is the current industry standard. Finally, a side but interesting finding is that in our data set, attributes related to high energy levels (e.g., machinery, hazardous substance) and to human error (e.g., improper security of tools) emerge as strong risk shapers.     

Work–family conflict: The importance of differentiating between different facets of job characteristics

This review study clarifies the relationships between job characteristics and work–family conflict (WFC) by differentiating among three facets of job characteristics: latent, perceived, and enacted. To date, research linking job characteristics to WFC has not distinguished the facets of job demands and job resources in this way. Such distinctions are important as a means of understanding the affective, behavioural, and cognitive processes involved in determining how and when job characteristics relate to WFC. Our review of 115 studies showed that perceived job characteristics have been most commonly explored in relation to WFC, whereas latent and enacted job characteristics have been hardly examined. While these findings may not be surprising, our contribution lies in reviewing the literature through the lens of these categories. Based on the findings, and through highlighting examples in the extant literature, we argue that understanding job characteristics in terms of both how they are perceived and enacted by workers will provide a deeper insight into the mechanisms underlying the relationship between job characteristics and WFC. In order to inform evidence-based interventions, future research must uncover the dynamic mechanisms underpinning the connection between job characteristics and WFC through a focus on enacted job facets and the cognitive, affective, and behavioural processes involved.