The Influence of Socio-Economic Variables on Family Size in Wentworth County, Ontario, 1871: A Statistical Analysis of Historical Micro-Data

Les techniques de l'analyse régressive transversale sont appliquées aux microdonnées du recensement historique du Canada. On a soutiré systématiquement des documents microfilmés un échantillon de 1100 families "normales" résidant dans le comté de Wentworth, de la province d'Ontario, en 1871. On a tenté de determiner l'influence de l'âge, du lieu de naissance, de la religion, de l'origine ethnique, de l'occupation, de la résidence dans un milieu rural ou urbain, et de toutes les autres variables disponibles sur la grandeur de la famille. On utilisa dans l'analyse regressive sur une vaste échelle des variables d'emprunt ("dummy variables"). Les variables démographiques et celles associées au milieu de résidence s'avérèrent très significatives. On découvrit, cependant, que les influences socio-économiques, en autant qu'elles sont reflétées par la profession, la religion, le lieu de naissance, et l'origine ethnique, exercent une faible influence sur la composition de la famille.
Techniques of cross-section regression analysis are applied to historical census of Canada micro-data. A sample of 1100 "normal" families in Wentworth County, Ontario, was drawn systematically from microfilm records of the 1871 census. An attempt was made to determine the influence on family size of age, birthplace, religion, ethnic origin, occupation, urban and rural residence, and other variables for which the census provided information. Extensive use was made of dummy variables in the regression analysis. "Demographic" and urban-rural factors were found to be highly significant. However, socio-economic influences, as represented by occupation, religion, birthplace, and ethnic origin, were found generally to be weak.     

Families in court—guilty or guilty?

SUMMARY. The case for the introduction of family courts in England and Wales rests on the unsuitability of the present court systems to the effective and efficient resolution of family problems Last year the Socio-Legal Centre for Family Studies of the University of Bristol, published an important study by Mervyn Murch and colleagues, The Overlapping Family Jurisdiction of the Magistrates' Courts and County Courts (1987), which describes the views of the court-users of their experience in court. The research discovered that families find court attendance frightening and that the present court arrangements are insensitive to the needs of families. This article brings these findings to a wider audience and comments on their significance     

Lessons for teachers from Cleveland More questions than answers

SUMMARY. Schools and the role of teachers were rarely mentioned in the Cleveland Inquiry, However, they have a vitally important part to play in the identification of sexually abused children, in support for such children and in preventive strategies. In this article, the author argues not only for a recognition of this role by other professionals, but also by teachers themselves and the education system as a whole. To date, he argues, inadequate understanding of these issues has been compounded by a lack of resources for training and of involvement in the multi-disciplinary process     

Quality Assurance, Pre-Sentence Reports and the Probation Service

Correspondence to Dr Peter Raynor, Applied Social Studies, University of Wales, Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP. Summary During the months immediately preceding the implementation ofthe 1991 Criminal Justice Act the Home Office commissioned astudy of quality assurance and quality control procedures usedby probation services in their work on social inquiry reportsand in their preparation for the change to pre-sentence reports.This paper summarizes the results of that study, which includeda survey of current practice in probation services and the developmentof a quality control instrument for assessing the quality ofpre-sentence reports. It is emphasized that the views expressedin this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily thoseof the Home Office.     

The Psychiatric 'Caseness' of Clients Referred to an Urban Social Services Department

Correspondence should be sent to Dr. Peter Huxley, Mental Health Social Work Research Unit, Department of Psychiatry, Manchester University, Stopford Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PT. Summary Of 158 clients referred to two area offices and six generalpractice attached social workers, 141 weré interviewedusing standardized social and psychiatric research interviews.The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) was completed by 138clients. Their social worker completed the Case Review Form.Scores of 5 or more on the PSE Index of Definition (for theclient) were used to indicate psychiatric caseness. Using IDscores of 5 or more, 53% of the sample were identified as ‘cases’.The GHQ (cut-off 4/5) identified 73% of the clients as cases;and the GHQ (cut-off 10/11) identified 51% cases. Morbidity was significantly greater in the general practicesetting. Social workers' judgement (about the presence or absenceof mental illness/emotional disorder) was not significantlybetter than chance in the identification of specific disorders,but was significant in relation to the whole sample. The results are discussed and further studies are being conductedusing more sophisticated judgements of ’caseness’,and extending the enquiry beyond an inner city population.     

THE OPTIMAL MONETARY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS

This paper develops a model in which both technology and monetary shocks are important sources of variation in aggregate output and employment. The model rationalizes a policy under which money responds actively to technology shocks. The welfare cost of adopting the constant money growth rule advocated by Milton Friedman rather than the optimal activist policy is small, however. (JEL E52, E32)     

ELECTORAL POLITICS, INTEREST GROUPS, AND THE SIZE OF GOVERNMENT

This paper considers how government size responds to a change in the influence of interest groups. First, an election model is developed that has an equilibrium and in which interest groups have unequal influence. The authors then show that an increase in a group's influence per se does not cause government size to increase but does cause its size to increase when the government (1) cannot change tax shares or (2) provides a good benefiting one (untaxed) group, whose sole interest is in maximizing its consumption of the good. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the normative implications.