Logistic and neural network models for predicting a hospital admission

Feedforward neural networks are often used in a similar manner as logistic regression models; that is, to estimate the probability of the occurrence of an event. In this paper, a probabilistic model is developed for the purpose of estimating the probability that a patient who has been admitted to the hospital with a medical back diagnosis will be released after only a short stay or will remain hospitalized for a longer period of time. As the purpose of the analysis is to determine if hospital characteristics influence the decision to retain a patient, the inputs to this model are a set of demographic variables that describe the various hospitals. The output is the probability of either a short or long term hospital stay. In order to compare the ability of each method to model the data, a hypothesis test is performed to test for an improvement resulting from the use of the neural network model.     

Passed over for promotion because of age: An empirical analysis of the consequences

I test whether older individuals who report that their firms favor younger workers in promotion decisions are harmed by this oftencited discriminatory practice. Using the Health and Retirement Study, I determine whether such workers are more likely to experience lower wage growth, to separate from their employer, or to retire early, in comparison with workers with similar demographic and job characteristics. The evidence is consistent with lower wage growth and a greater likelihood of early retirement. Much of the effect, however, is likely to stem from a high correlation between delayedpayment contracts and promotion practices. I thank Jeff Biddle, John Goddeeris, David Neumark, John Strauss, and Jeff Wooldridge for helpful comments and suggestions. I gratefully acknowledge fellowship support during the completion of this paper from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.     

EFFECTS OF SOLUTION FOCUSED THERAPY'S "FORMULA FIRST SESSION TASK" ON COMPLIANCE AND OUTCOME IN FAMILY THERAPY

This study investigated the immediate impact of a "solution focused" family therapy intervention on both the family and the therapist. Specifically, the study examined the differential effects of the formula first session task (FFST) recommended by de Shazer (1982, 1985), as well as the FFST plus solution focused therapy, as compared to a standard problem focused structural-strategic intervention. After one week, the groups receiving the FFST were significantly higher on measures of family compliance, clarity of treatment goals, and improvement in the presenting problem. However, there were no significant differences among groups on family optimism or on outcome after 10 sessions. The implications of these results are discussed.     

The Bitter End: Emotions at a Movement's Conclusion

In Chile, not long after Pinochet stepped down, many shantytown women who had fought hard in the pro‐democracy movement felt very bitter. What explains this despondence, despite the positive outcome of their movement? This article addresses a question the social movement literature neglects: the question of how people feel when a movement ends. In doing so, it contributes to the literatures on movement decline and emotions in movements. I use ethnographic data from a year's fieldwork in Chile to suggest that at the end of a movement, even when it has succeeded in terms of achieving its goals, activists can feel disillusioned, disconnected, and abandoned.     

Looking,smiling, laughing,and moving in restaurants: Sex and age differences

Three hundred and twenty-eight diners in three restaurants were observed for three minutes each and the frequencies of six behaviors recorded: looking and glancing away from the table and companions, smiling, laughing, gross movements, and standing. Males looked more than females, and females smiled and laughed more than males. Significant age differences were found for smiling, laughing, movement, and standing. Significant interactions were found in looking for sex by with or without a companion. Significant age by sex interactions were found for smiling, laughing, and standing.     

Do fines for violating possession-use-purchase laws reduce youth tobacco use?

The present brief report followed children exposed to consequences for violating Purchase, Use, and Possession (PUP) laws over time to assess changes in their smoking status. Youth in 24 towns were surveyed once a year for 3 years, and rates of tobacco use for those fined for PUP law violations were assessed. Of those who were given a ticket for a PUP law violation, 35 (39%) reported not smoking during year 1. Students in grade 7 were more likely to have quit smoking (84%) than those in grade 8 (35%), grade 9 (32%), or grade 10 (21%). For the two follow-up years, 45% and 41% reported not smoking. Assuming those who attrited were smokers, it is possible that about 15% to 24% of the original sample of children cited actually quit smoking over the follow-up period. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Ways in which gambling researchers receive funding from gambling industry sources

Using data from computer-assisted telephone interviews with 1000 18- to 24-year old Australians, the structure underlying participation in 12 gambling activities was investigated. Factor analysis indicated that activities were differentiated into those that are chance-based, involve selecting a winner and involve individuals' skills. Gambling problems, assessed using a four-item factor, were related to participation in the two skill-based activity types. Males participated in these more than females. Age was positively related to participating in activities involving selecting a winner and negatively to those involving individuals' skills. Participation in activities associated with the three factors was differentially related to individual difference factors along with family and peer participation in, and support for, gambling. Together the results indicate that young Australians do not view gambling activities homogeneously and future research should focus on the predictors and outcomes of different types of gambling among this age group.