Demographic transition theory

Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.     

Mandatory seat belt laws in the states. A study of fatal and severe occupant injuries

This study examines the impact of mandatory seat belt laws on fatal and incapacitating injury rates in the states. Annual data for all 50 states for the period 1975-1991 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed. The general conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that seat belt laws significantly impact state fatal injury rates. Primary enforcement and all-seat coverage provisions appear to be particularly effective in reducing fatality rates.     

Matching anonymous pre-posttests using subject-generated information

Sensitive research issues call for anonymous questionnaires. This makes accurately matching pretests with posttests difficult or impossible. Various subject-generated coding schemes have been developed, but their accuracy has been unknown. This anonymous study, with 745 students, used subject-generated coding to match pretests with posttests. The matching was verified for accuracy with the use of a collateral, anonymous, sticker identification system. The coding system was able to accurately match 75.2% of all the pretest-posttest pairs. An additional 22.1% of the pairs were left unmatched and only 2.7% were matched incorrectly. Subject-generated coding systems can be very effective where confidentiality is important to protect.     

The changing meaning of cohabitation and marriage

"In the Netherlands, the social meaning of both marriage and cohabitation has changed. Cohabitation started as an alternative way of living, developed into a temporary phase before marriage, and finally became a strategy for moving into a union gradually....This article addresses the question whether or not individual past and current life-course experiences become increasingly important in explaining the differentiation of entry into marriage across female birth cohorts, and yet become decreasingly important in explaining the differentiation of entry into cohabitation across female birth cohorts. This question is examined using a non-proportional hazard model. Empirical evidence supports this hypothesis strongly, in that both past determinants such as family size or religion and current life-course determinants such as work or education change in their impact on cohabitation and marriage across birth cohorts."     

Trends in divorce and marriage around the world

"A study of 27 [developed] nations indicated that divorce rates rose in 25 of the nations from 1950 to 1985 while marriage rates declined in 22 of the nations. Nations with higher divorce rates in 1950 had steeper increases in the divorce rate subsequently, supporting a critical-mass hypothesis."     

Meet the mandate to measure clinical quality

The mandate for health care organizations to be accountable for quality, as well as price, is now unavoidable. The Joint Commission's ORYX project is requiring every hospital to measure clinical outcomes of a majority of its patients within the next three years. This mandate can be met best with systems of clinical outcomes measurement that provide valid, reliable risk adjustment; yield meaningful information about many different diseases and procedures; and measure more than mortality or cost--all using primarily billing data. New outcomes measurement tools with all of these capabilities are available and have already enabled quality improvement in dozens of hospitals across the U.S.     

Hospital-sponsored networks. The rush to consolidate and the future of medical practice

As the medical delivery system undergoes fundamental change, there is a growing pressure on hospitals to form networks with physicians. The prime motivation for these entities is to preserve market share and fill beds. There is likewise intense pressure on physicians to join them, even if these networks do not serve their best interests, or the goal of fostering physician-centered practice. A transformation is under way, however, that may well place doctors again in the central role of guiding the new modes of medical practice in the United States.     

China's "tidal wave" of migrant labor: what can we learn from Mexican undocumented migration to the United States?

"The purpose of this article is to place Chinese labor migration from agriculture within the context of the literature on labor mobility in developing countries by comparing it to undocumented Mexican migration to the United States. The similarities fall within three general areas: the migration process, the economic and social position of migrants at their destination, and the agrarian structure and process of agricultural development that has perpetuated circular migration. The last section of the article draws upon these similarities, as well as differences between the two countries, to generate predictions concerning the development of labor migration in China."