Property Loss Estimation for Wind and Earthquake Perils

This article describes the development of a generic loss assessment methodology, which is applicable to earthquake and windstorm perils worldwide. The latest information regarding hazard estimation is first integrated with the parameters that best describe the intensity of the action of both windstorms and earthquakes on building structures, for events with defined average return periods or recurrence intervals. The subsequent evaluation of building vulnerability (damageability) under the action of both earthquake and windstorm loadings utilizes information on damage and loss from past events, along with an assessment of the key building properties (including age and quality of design and construction), to assess information about the ability of buildings to withstand such loadings and hence to assign a building type to the particular risk or portfolio of risks. This predicted damage information is then translated into risk-specific mathematical vulnerability functions, which enable numerical evaluation of the probability of building damage arising at various defined levels. By assigning cost factors to the defined damage levels, the associated computation of total loss at a given level of hazard may be achieved. This developed methodology is universal in the sense that it may be applied successfully to buildings situated in a variety of earthquake and windstorm environments, ranging from very low to extreme levels of hazard. As a loss prediction tool, it enables accurate estimation of losses from potential scenario events linked to defined return periods and, hence, can greatly assist risk assessment and planning.     

Lack of reciprocity among Dutch teachers: Validation of reciprocity indices and their relation to stress and well-being

This research presents the results of two related studies on the convergent and construct validity of three measures of reciprocity in exchange relationships at work. In Study 1, 71 Dutch teachers were interviewed about their specific investments and outcomes in the exchange relationships with their students, colleagues and school. ANOVA revealed that they reported significantly more investments than outcomes, and that the number of reported investments and outcomes mentioned varied as a function of the type of exchange relationship. Building on these results, multi-item scales were created to assess reciprocity at a detailed level for each of the three exchange relationships. Study 2 validated these specific reciprocity measures by relating them to two global assessments of reciprocity (convergent validity) as well as to measures of job stress and well-being (construct validity). LISREL-analysis of data obtained from a further sample of 224 teachers revealed that for each type of exchange relationship there were significant, consistent and meaningful relationships among the three reciprocity measures. Further, hierarchical regression analysis showed that the reciprocity measures were differentially related to job stressors and measures of well-being. Implications are discussed.     

Poliovirus Surveillance by Examining Sewage Water Specimens: Studies on Detection Probability Using Simulation Models

Efficiency of environmental surveillance of poliovirus circulation was studied using simulation models. First, three transmission models were defined for describing different scenarios of poliovirus infections in a large unstructured population. Second, environmental factors, such as the total volume of the sewage network and losses of viruses, were modeled for computing the virus output at the sewage sampling site. Third, the effect of sampling and laboratory procedures was accounted for in the probability of detection, given the amount of polioviruses in a specimen. The simulation model can be used for theoretical assessments of the likely efficiency of environmental surveillance, compared with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. Under reasonable assumptions in a vaccinated population, the AFP surveillance can be outperformed if the poliovirus outbreak is not large. However, this depends on the assumed case-to-infection ratio and on the sampling frequency of the sewage water specimens. Increasing the latter will lead to a higher detection probability, which will further enhance the method based on environmental surveillance.     

Conceptual frameworks and the philosophical foundations of general living systems theory

The continued expansion and fragmentation of biological disciplines impede education, communication, and efficient advance of biological research. Reversing these trends may require a unification of theories and concepts from all levels of biological organization. One form of this unification is the statement of generalizations that apply to all living systems. We explore the philosophical foundations of general theories of living systems by analyzing conceptual frameworks as they apply to biology. This analysis examines the relation of empirical observation, theories, and conceptual frameworks within the context of an individual scientist's conceptual continuum. Also presented are a small set of translevel generalizations that articulate our conceptual framework of living systems in terms of organismic system organization, the environmental system-organismic system dyad, system capacity, and system incorporation. A set of procedural rules are stated which suggest minimum criteria for the evaluation of the explanatory adequacy of biological theories. The relation of this work to other similar analyses and syntheses of biological knowledge is discussed.     

Decentralization: The American Experience and its Relevance for Australia

An explanation is sought for the general lack of any significant amount of decentralization in Australia. Major, ongoing trends in the decentralizing of manufacturing industries in the United States are examined, and an attempt is made to identify specific forces attracting industry to country locations and those deterring it. Detailed comparison of the American and Australian situations reveals marked differences in the presence of conditions that either promote or discourage decentralization. It is concluded that, on present indications, the outlook for decentralization in Australia remains unfavourable.     

Reorganization of Psychiatric Services in the Sydney Metropolitan Area

An outline is given of the historical background of current attempts to modernize State psychiatric services in New South Wales. A four-phase developmental pattern in the current decentralization of facilities is described, with special reference to some traditional institutional obstacles to progress in the task of attaining an enhanced relatedness of services to community needs. It is concluded that a major deficiency in the current organization of the State-sponsored services is the lack of systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of programmes established in the past few years.