Piecewise linear rank-dependent utility

Choice under risk is modelled using a piecewise linear version of rank-dependent utility. This model can be considered a continuous version of NEO-expected utility (Chateauneuf et al., J Econ Theory 137:538–567, 2007). In a framework of objective probabilities, a preference foundation is given, without requiring a rich structure on the outcome set. The key axiom is called complementary additivity.     

Variations in the Life Histories of Incarcerated Parents by Race and Ethnicity: Implications for Service Provision

ABSTRACT

Incarcerated parents have complex life histories that often remain unresolved during incarceration, can continue to create barriers to prosocial success on release, and present similar intergenerational challenges for their children. This study examines the life histories of incarcerated fathers and mothers from the Pacific Northwest and how their experiences vary based on race and ethnicity. Five areas examined were exposure to trauma, child welfare involvement, mental health and substance abuse problems, juvenile justice and adult criminal justice involvement, and intergenerational criminal justice involvement. The sample comprised 359 incarcerated parents, and their racial/ethnic composition was 59% White, 14% African American, 11% multiracial, 8% Native American, and 7% Latino. Few differences were found across racial and ethnic groups. Mothers appeared more similar to each other across groups than fathers. Results illustrated similarities yet some surprising differences with national trends on key study variables. Implications for future research and intervention and prevention are discussed.     

Analysis of microtubule dynamics using growth curve models

Microtubules are part of the structural network within a cell's cytoplasm, providing structural support as well as taking part in many of the cellular processes. A large body of data provide evidence that dynamics of microtubules in a cell is reponsible for the performance of many critical cellular functions such as cell division. In this article, we study the effect of four different isoforms of a protein tau on microtubule dynamics using growth curve models. The results show that a linear growth curve model is sufficient to explain the data. Moreover, we find that a mutated version of a 3-repeat tau protein has a similar effect as a 4-repeat tau protein on microtubule dynamics. The latter findings conform with the biological understanding of the effect of the protein tau on microtubule dynamics.     

Bayesian robustness of the compound Poisson distribution under bidimensional prior: an application to the collective risk model

The distribution of the aggregate claims in one year plays an important role in Actuarial Statistics for computing, for example, insurance premiums when both the number and size of the claims must be implemented into the model. When the number of claims follows a Poisson distribution the aggregated distribution is called the compound Poisson distribution. In this article we assume that the claim size follows an exponential distribution and later we make an extensive study of this model by assuming a bidimensional prior distribution for the parameters of the Poisson and exponential distribution with marginal gamma. This study carries us to obtain expressions for net premiums, marginal and posterior distributions in terms of some well-known special functions used in statistics. Later, a Bayesian robustness study of this model is made. Bayesian robustness on bidimensional models was deeply treated in the 1990s, producing numerous results, but few applications dealing with this problem can be found in the literature.     

Quantile dispersion graphs to compare the efficiencies of cluster randomized designs

The purpose of this article is to compare efficiencies of several cluster randomized designs using the method of quantile dispersion graphs (QDGs). A cluster randomized design is considered whenever subjects are randomized at a group level but analyzed at the individual level. A prior knowledge of the correlation existing between subjects within the same cluster is necessary to design these cluster randomized trials. Using the QDG approach, we are able to compare several cluster randomized designs without requiring any information on the intracluster correlation. For a given design, several quantiles of the power function, which are directly related to the effect size, are obtained for several effect sizes. The quantiles depend on the intracluster correlation present in the model. The dispersion of these quantiles over the space of the unknown intracluster correlation is determined, and then depicted by the QDGs. Two applications of the proposed methodology are presented.     

Analysis of robust design experiments with time-dependent ordinal response characteristics: a quality improvement study from the horticulture industry

An approach to the analysis of time-dependent ordinal quality score data from robust design experiments is developed and applied to an experiment from commercial horticultural research, using concepts of product robustness and longevity that are familiar to analysts in engineering research. A two-stage analysis is used to develop models describing the effects of a number of experimental treatments on the rate of post-sales product quality decline. The first stage uses a polynomial function on a transformed scale to approximate the quality decline for an individual experimental unit using derived coefficients and the second stage uses a joint mean and dispersion model to investigate the effects of the experimental treatments on these derived coefficients. The approach, developed specifically for an application in horticulture, is exemplified with data from a trial testing ornamental plants that are subjected to a range of treatments during production and home-life. The results of the analysis show how a number of control and noise factors affect the rate of post-production quality decline. Although the model is used to analyse quality data from a trial on ornamental plants, the approach developed is expected to be more generally applicable to a wide range of other complex production systems.     

Perceived social standing among Asian immigrants in the US: Do reasons for immigration matter?

We investigate the association between a subjective measure of social status and the reasons for immigration among Asian immigrants in the US. We use data from the National Latino and Asian American Study to test several hypotheses about this association. Our analyses show the positive effect on perceived social standing of migrating for better education, the negative effect of migrating to seek employment, and the negative impact of refugee status. Migrating for family reunification can be associated with various circumstances, which lead to differing outcomes. The results suggest that the notion that immigrants arrive in the US with limited resources and few skills and move slowly up the socioeconomic ladder must be reassessed in light of the complex social context and factors such as ethnicity, gender, divergent immigration paths, and a range of associated circumstances.     

Estimation in capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data

For capture–recapture models when covariates are subject to measurement errors and missing data, a set of estimating equations is constructed to estimate population size and relevant parameters. These estimating equations can be solved by an algorithm similar to the EM algorithm. The proposed method is also applicable to the situation when covariates with no measurement errors have missing data. Simulation studies are used to assess the performance of the proposed estimator. The estimator is also applied to a capture–recapture experiment on the bird species Prinia flaviventris in Hong Kong. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 645–658; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Measuring people's trust

Summary. We measure trust and trustworthiness in British society with a newly designed experiment using real monetary rewards and a sample of the British population. The study also asks the typical survey question that aims to measure trust, showing that it does not predict 'trust' as measured in the experiment. Overall, about 40% of people were willing to trust a stranger in our experiment, and their trust was rewarded half of the time. Analysis of variation in the trust behaviour in our survey suggests that trusting is more likely if people are older, their financial situation is either 'comfortable' or 'difficult' compared with 'doing alright' or 'just getting by', they are a homeowner or they are divorced, separated or never married compared with those who are married or cohabiting. Trustworthiness also is more likely among subjects who are divorced or separated relative to those who are married or cohabiting, and less likely among subjects who perceive their financial situation as 'just getting by' or 'difficult'. We also analyse the effect of attitudes towards risks on trust.