Marriages and fertility among Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium: results from census data

The patterns of family formation and fertility behavior of Turkish and Moroccan women in Belgium are changing rapidly. The census data (1991) indicate a fertility decline. The reasons are changes in the nuptiality patterns, contraceptive behavior, and migratory flows. The changes are not identical in both communities. Young cohorts postpone their marriage, but this is most prominent among Moroccan women. On the other hand, young Turkish women have a clear preference for smaller families. The changes also differentiate according to migrant "generation" and level of education. The changes are not restricted to Belgium but are also observed in the countries of origin.     

Death at the border

"Debates about United States border control policies have generally ignored the human costs of undocumented migration. We focus attention on these costs by estimating the number, causes and location of migrant deaths at the southwest border of the United States between 1993 and 1997.... Deaths from hyperthermia, hypothermia and dehydration increased sharply from 1993 to 1997 as intensified border enforcement redirected undocumented migration flows from urban crossing points to more remote crossing areas where the migrants are exposed to a greater risk of death."     

A method to obtain a randomized control group where it seems impossible. A case study in program evaluation

Randomization of program participants into control and experimental groups is often not feasible in field settings. The researcher's desire to evaluate a program with a rigorous experimental design is often incompatible with the objective of serving the expressed needs of the program participants. However, opportunities do arise when a randomized control group can be constructed without disregarding the participants' wish to be included in the treatment group. This article describes a method that uses the participants' compliance to program instructions as a means of classifying participants and, thereby, obtains a randomized control group for a subset of participants. A large smoking intervention project is used to illustrate two variations of this method.     

The Chicago School,So-Called

Many sociologists believe in the myth of a Chicago School, a unified and coherent body of thought and research practice carried on at the University of Chicago from the 1920s through the 1960s. Chicago never constituted such a coherent system and is better understood as a school of activity, a group of people who cooperated in the day-to-day running of a major department.     

Terrorist Population Dynamics Model

A system that includes a number of terrorist cells is considered. The cells can consist of one or more terrorists. The current number of terrorist cells is further denoted by N(t), where t is a current time counted from any appropriate origin. The objective is to find the evolution of the system in terms of N(t) and some interpretable parameters, such as the initial number of the terrorist cells N0=N(0), the cell disabling rate constant lambda (or the cell half-life t1/2), and the rate of formation of new cells P. The cost-effectiveness analysis, performed in the framework of the model, reveals that the effectiveness of disabling a terrorist cell is getting worse after 2-3 half-lives of a cell, which shows that if the anti-terrorist actions have not reached their goal during that time, the respective policy should be considered for revision, using the risk assessment consideration. Another important issue raised concerns balancing the efforts related to counterterrorism actions inside the system and the efforts protecting its borders. The respective data analysis is suggested and illustrated using simulated data.     

The Doldrums

Journal of Population Research -     

Why adoptees search: motives and more

As both adoptee and psychiatrist, the author brings a double-barreled observation to the issue of search.     

The probabilistic analysis of testimony

The probabilistic analysis of testimony is surveyed. The coverage is not comprehensive; attention is focused on several problems of particular interest or complexity. The theory often contains implicit assumptions, and some attempt is made to clarify the role these play. The theory originally arose in an attempt to understand the logic of belief. It was not empirically grounded, however, and later died out in the 19th century when its conclusions became largely self-evident, and its non-empirical background suspect.     

Melanie klein's work: An adaptation in practice

Kleinian theory seems both intimidating and alien to many American psychotherapists. This paper offers an entry into Klein's work. The theory is approached by emphasizing three areas especially valuable in clinical practice: mourning and manic defenses, schizoid relationships, and envy and idealization. A detailed presentation of an individual psychotherapy case is offered as an illustration of how her ideas may be integrated into a broader objectrelations treatment perspective.     

Expectations, alienation, and drinking motives among college men and women

Relationships among three motivational variables (negative-personal functions of drinking, alienation, and perceived discrepancies between valued goals and expected success toward valued goals) were evaluated in a group of 257 college drinkers. As predicted, a positive relationship between alienation scores and the extent of discrepancies between values and expectations for academic and social success was found. Negative-personal drinking functions were positively associated with both alienation and value-expectation discrepancies. Results are discussed in terms of heuristic consistency and potential applications.