农村劳动者流动中的几个问题

在中国现有的研究和相关的政策建议中,流动常常都被看做是缓解乡村"剩余"人口(劳动者)压力的一种方法,也是实现现代化的一种主要手段。换句话说,乡村被看做中国现代化的主要障碍之一,它带来的更多是问题而不是解决问题的方法。作者提出,研究人员和决策者应该更多地考虑农村外出劳动者对于流出地发展所做的重要贡献。     

Fertility waves,aggregate savings and the rate of interest

During the last fifty years there have in many countries been large movements in the growth of labor productivity, real wage rates, the rate of interest, and the household savings ratio. In this paper we use an overlapping generations model to study if demographic shocks, like the baby boom, can generate the kind of movements observed. Simulations show this is indeed the case. We also study the interactions between a pay-as-you-go pension system and demographic disturbances.We are grateful to Laurence Ball, Alex Cukierman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Frank wallace notestein (1902-1983)

Abstract Frank W. Notestein, one of the architects of modern demography, died on 18 February 1983, after a long struggle with emphysema. President Emeritus of the Population Council, and former Professor of Demography at Princeton University, he had been living in retirement in Newtown, Pennsylvania, with his wife of fifty-six years, née Daphne Limbach.     

A time series of instrumental fertility variables

Temporal variations in conventional fertility measures reflect the operation of instrumental variables: quantitative and temporal intentions; success in achieving intentions; and reproductive conditions. A set of such variables is described, using data from the 1975 National Fertility Study. There was a large decline in the number of intended conceptions, a recent large rise in the extent of their delay, a very large decline in rates of failure to delay or terminate fertility, and a very large recent rise in sterilization. But one problem proved important and intractable: When the data source is a cross-sectional survey, the length of open interval is inherently different for real and for synthetic cohorts, it is strongly related to reproductive intention, and that affects the classification of exposure to risk in the open interval.     

On long-term mortality trends in the United States, 1850–1968

This study of United States life tables analyzes the process of mortality transition during 1850–1968. Special features of the study are (1) a phase-specific, rather than an age-specific, analysis of mortality and (2) use of measures based on person-years of life (nL _x ) in phase-intervals, rather than survival rates (nPx) or expectation of life at given ages (e _x ^o). The analysis suggests that the historical transition of mortality in the United States can be described as a three-stage process: an initial stage of slow improvement in life expectancy during 1850–1900, a second stage of rapid improvement during 1900–1950, and a third stage of slower improvement since 1950. Quantitative measures of rapidity of mortality decline in the several phases indicate that they are not identical for all phases and in all stages. The analysis also suggests that there have been rapid changes in the components of overall mortality differentials by sex and race in the United States. The paper draws attention to the need for studies of factors in variations of mortality at ages beyond 50 in the United States population subgroups.     

HIV in young men who have sex with men: a review of epidemiology, risk and protective factors, and interventions

Epidemiological studies have found that young men who have sex with men (YMSM) represent the majority of young people infected with HIV annually in the United States. Further, they are one of the few risk groups to show an increase in the rate of infections in recent years. In addition to these disparities in prevalence and infection rates, there is an inequity in prevention and intervention research on this population. The purpose of this article is to review the existing YMSM literature on HIV epidemiology, correlates of risk, and intervention research. The article concludes that promising future directions for basic research include a focus on multiple clustering health issues, processes that promote resiliency, the role of family influences, and the development of parsimonious models of risk. In terms of intervention research, the article suggests that promising future directions include Internet-based intervention delivery, integration of biomedical and behavioral approaches, and interventions that go beyond the individual level to address partnership, structural, community, and network factors.     

An Exploratory Study of Clinical Measures Associated with Subsyndromal Pathological Gambling in Patients with Binge Eating Disorder

Both binge eating disorder (BED) and pathological gambling (PG) are characterized by impairments in impulse control. Subsyndromal levels of PG have been associated with measures of adverse health. The nature and significance of PG features in individuals with BED is unknown. Ninety-four patients with BED (28 men and 66 women) were classified by gambling group based on inclusionary criteria for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual-IV (DSM-IV) PG and compared on a range of behavioral, psychological and eating disorder (ED) psychopathology variables. One individual (1.1% of the sample) met criteria for PG, although 18.7% of patients with BED displayed one or more DSM-IV criteria for PG, hereafter referred to as problem gambling features. Men were more likely than women to have problem gambling features. BED patients with problem gambling features were distinguished by lower self-esteem and greater substance problem use. After controlling for gender, findings of reduced self-esteem and increased substance problem use among patients with problem gambling features remained significant. In patients with BED, problem gambling features are associated with a number of heightened clinical problems.