Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Land use conflict after the wildlife and countryside act 1981: the role of the farming and wildlife advisory group

As the conflict between agriculture and conservation in Britain continues, the farming and landowning lobby has placed increasing emphasis on the Farming and Wildlife Advisory Group (FWAG). This paper examines the development of FWAG as a mechanism for self-regulation through a voluntary and co-operative approach to conservation within the farming community. FWAG, until recently accorded little attention either by farmers or government, now enjoys considerable patronage, and new-found financial support from the Countryside Commission. As the National Farmers' Union (NFU) and Country Landowners' Association (CLA) seek to contain the tide of criticism of activities in the countryside FWAG, essentially a practical advisory body, has assumed a crucial ideological importance in the presentation of the farmers' traditional case of ‘stewardship’ and ‘good husbandry’. The paper concludes by stressing the dilemma facing the NFU and CLA as they seek to satisfy the wishes of their own members, government and the conservation lobby.     

Women on boards of nonprofits: What difference do they make?

In this article, the authors explore the impact of women on nonprofit boards. From a sociological perspective, they look at the actual proportion of women on boards and, from a more psychological perspective, at the sex of the chief executive officers in order to examine the impact of these variables on board effectiveness, structure, and process. The study results, based on data from a cross section of Canadian nonprofits, indicate that as the percentage of women on a board increases, the dynamics of the board are significantly affected.     

Biological Basis of Chemical Carcinogenesis: Insights from Benzene

Benzene is one of the best studied of the known human carcinogens. It causes leukemia in humans and a variety of solid tumors in rats and mice. Decades of research on benzene metabolism, pharmacokinetics, cytotoxicity, genotoxicity, and carcinogenicity in vivo and in vitro are starting to converge on a small set of overlapping hypotheses about the most probable biological mechanisms of benzene toxicity and carcinogenicity. Although there is still room for surprises, it seems likely that the ultimate answer to the mystery of how benzene exerts its multiple effects will consist of elaborations and extensions of one or more of the current hypotheses. This paper reviews benzene health effects and biology, showing how various aspects of metabolism and cytotoxicity fit together with genotoxic and nongenotoxic effects to help explain how benzene may cause cancer. Its goals are: (i) to introduce the qualitative biological background needed for detailed quantitative dose-response modeling of benzene cancer risks; and (ii) to survey a rapidly evolving area of research that shows promise of producing fundamental insights into the mechanisms of toxicity and carcinogenesis for several chemicals--benzene and perhaps phenols, catechols, and other hydroxylated ring hydrocarbons--in the decade ahead.     

Women's experience of power within marriage: an inexplicable phenomenon?

Relatively little attention has been paid within mainstream sociology to the examination of marital power, although there is considerable disenchantment with measures of it based on replies to questions about who makes a range of decisions. Marxists and feminists have stressed the importance of economic dependence as an element in understanding power relationship within marriage, although there has been little empirical work to support/undermine their views. This paper draws on material from 60 in-depth interviews with predominantly white married women aged 20–42 years old whose oldest child was at most 15 years and who were randomly selected from general practice medical registers in North London. The paper looks at three aspects of their marital power position: first, their experience of powerfulness/powerlessness; second, their level and pattern of emotional dependence on their husband (in the context of Waller's and Hill's (1951)‘principle of least interest’); and, third, their absolute and relative levels of structural power resources (such as education, occupation, etc.) It shows that although the overwhelming majority of the respondents were partially if not totally financially dependent on their husband, only roughly one third felt powerless within their marriage. The importance of relational and structural sources of power in influencing these feelings is explored, the paper arguing that such feelings are less influenced by the respondents’ own structural resources than by factors associated with the husband's economic position and his role within the family. Hence, paradoxically, although the respondents feel less powerless than they ‘should’ in terms of their level of economic dependence, the factors associated with variation in feelings of powerlessness highlight the constrained nature of their situation.     

Extending the Stochastic Two-Stage Model of Carcinogenesis to Include Self-Regulation of the Nonmalignant Cell Population

One of the challenges of introducing greater biological realism into stochastic models of cancer induction is to find a way to represent the homeostatic control of the normal cell population over its own size without complicating the analysis too much to obtain useful results. Current two-stage models of carcinogenesis typically ignore homeostatic control. Instead, a deterministic growth path is specified for the population of "normal" cells, while the population of "initiated" cells is assumed to grow randomly according to a birth-death process with random immigrations from the normal population. This paper introduces a simple model of homeostatically controlled cell division for mature tissues, in which the size of the nonmalignant population remains essentially constant over time. Growth of the nonmalignant cell population (normal and initiated cells) is restricted by allowing cells to divide only to fill the "openings" left by cells that die or differentiate, thus maintaining the constant size of the nonmalignant cell population. The fundamental technical insight from this model is that random walks, rather than birth-and-death processes, are the appropriate stochastic processes for describing the kinetics of the initiated cell population. Qualitative and analytic results are presented, drawn from the mathematical theories of random walks and diffusion processes, that describe the probability of spontaneous extinction and the size distribution of surviving initiated populations when the death/differentiation rates of normal and initiated cells are known. The constraint that the nonmalignant population size must remain approximately constant leads to much simpler analytic formulas and approximations, flowing directly from random walk theory, than in previous birth-death models.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Problem characteristics, decision processes and evaluation activity: a preliminary study of mental health center directors

This article reports on the results of a preliminary study on the characteristics of problems and problem solving in mental health centers. The major findings were that directors were generally quite satisfied both with the available level of information intended to help them make decisions, and with their ability to make good, even optimal, decisions. Much of this confidence resulted from the use of assumptions about the problems which reduced the need for empirical information. The problem solving process was highly dynamic and interactive, with changes over time in the characteristics of problems, constraints and alternative solutions. The directors played an active role in attempting to foster and influence the direction of many of these instabilities. Some implications for evaluation and research are discussed.