Bayes Estimation of Shift Point in Geometric Sequence

A sequence of independent lifetimes X ₁, X ₂,…, X _m , X _m+1,… X _n were observed from geometric population with parameter q ₁ but later it was found that there was a change in the system at some point of time m and it is reflected in the sequence after X _m by change in parameter q ₂. The Bayes estimates of m, q ₁, q ₂, reliability R ₁ (t) and R ₂ (t) at time t are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. A simulation study is carried out.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Compound Geometric Failure Model with Changing Parameters From Type-I Two-Stage Progressively Censored and Group Censored Samples

Boardman and Kendell (1970 Boardman , T. J. , Kendell , P. J. ( 1970 ). Estimation in compound failure models . Technometrics 12 : 891 – 908 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) considered the problem of estimation with respect to Type-I censoring when an item is subjected to only one of the two causes of failure assuming exponential model. Patel and Gajjar (1992 Patel , M. N. , Gajjar , A. V. ( 1992 ). Maximum likelihood estimation in compound exponential failure model with changing failure rates from Type-I progressively censored and group censored samples . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 21 ( 10 ): 2899 – 2908 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) considered extension of the Boardman and Kendell's results in case of two-stage progressive censoring. Here we have considered geometric competing risk failure model with two independent causes of failures. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is carried out using Type-I two-stage progressively censored and group censored samples. Asymptotic standard errors of the estimators are obtained for both the cases. Two illustrative examples are cited for ungroup and group competing risk models.     

考虑政府引导的电子类产品逆向供应链奖惩机制设计

本文研究了电子类产品逆向供应链的政府奖惩机制问题,讨论了奖惩机制的最优参数。建立4种情形的决策模型并比较了它们的决策结果。研究表明:奖惩机制下逆向供应链的回收率提高;奖惩机制下回收商的利润大于无奖惩机制情形的利润,回收商的积极性提高;适中的目标回收率水平和较大的奖惩力度搭配能够增加制造商的利润,提高制造商的积极性;奖惩机制下废旧产品的回购价提高,新产品的销售价降低。     

考虑渠道权力结构的闭环供应链定价与协调

研究了集中式和分散式决策的三种渠道权力结构下闭环供应链的定价问题,比较各种情况下定价和利润的差异,并运用二部定价契约探讨了不同渠道权力结构下闭环供应链的协调方法。研究表明:MS与RS情形下闭环供应链的总利润相同且低于VN情形;随着产品替代系数的增加,新制造和再制造产品的价格均提高,制造商和零售商的利润均增加;随着回收努力程度的提高,两种产品的价格均提高,而制造商和零售商的利润均减少;运用二部定价契约可通过主导方或借助第三方有效协调闭环供应链。     

加强研究生思想政治教育势在必行

进一步加强和改进研究生思想政治教育,对于全面实施科教兴国和人才强国战略,确保中国特色社会主义事业兴旺发达,后继有人,具有重大而深远的战略意义。文章通过发放问卷调查,分析研究研究生基本状况及存在的主要问题,提出新时期必须高度重视和切实加强研究生思想政治教育工作。     

制造商竞争环境下基于产品生命周期的闭环供应链的定价和生产策略研究

研究制造商竞争环境下基于产品生命周期的闭环供应链的定价和生产策略:产品第一个生命周期中,只有一个制造商利用原材料生产新制造产品,从第二个周期开始制造商生产新品的同时进行回收再制造、并且出现替代品生产商的竞争。建立两周期双寡头垄断的闭环供应链定价和生产优化模型,得到最优策略,然后将其扩展到多周期和无限周期的情况。结果表明:两周期中制造商应根据再制造成本节约的大小而采取不同的定价和生产策略;多周期中,除第一和最后一个周期外,制造商应采取相同的策略;无限周期中,制造商应在出现竞争后一直采用相同策略。三种情况下,制造商都应在第一周期中低价销售产品来保证第二周期中能回收更多的产品用于再制造以取得低成本的竞争优势;而且随着再制造产品成本节约的增大,制造商旳利润和销售量增大,并且竞争者的利润和销售量减小。算例验证了上述结论。     

基于案例推理技术的企业可持续竞争能力的模型建立与应用

企业保持自身竞争能力的可持续性是企业成功的重要因素,但目前对于如何针对和结合企业自身的可持续竞争能力,以有效的制定未来的企业战略,学术界仍然研究甚少。本文的写作目的,是试图借助人工智能中的案例推理技术,建立企业的可持续竞争能力模型,为企业未来的发展方向和经营决策,提供有参考价值的指导性意见。     

回载可分的闭环供应链多配送中心多车辆运输策略

本文从车辆路径的角度研究了具有多个配送中心、多台车辆结合前向物流配送和逆向物流回载的闭环供应链运输策略,考虑回收产品的不同形态和可分批运输的特点,引入库存限制和成本惩罚,建立并分析了问题的数学模型.运用sweep算法把多配送中心转化为单配送中心,引入2σ原则构造了分组的启发式求解方法.算例分析表明该策略的合理有效性.     

The Role of Perceived Voice and Speech Characteristics in Vocal Emotion Communication

Aiming at a more comprehensive assessment of nonverbal vocal emotion communication, this article presents the development and validation of a new rating instrument for the assessment of perceived voice and speech features. In two studies, using two different sets of emotion portrayals by German and French actors, ratings of perceived voice and speech characteristics (loudness, pitch, intonation, sharpness, articulation, roughness, instability, and speech rate) were obtained from non-expert (untrained) listeners. In addition, standard acoustic parameters were extracted from the voice samples. Overall, highly similar patterns of results were found in both studies. Rater agreement (reliability) reached highly satisfactory levels for most features. Multiple discriminant analysis results reveal that both perceived vocal features and acoustic parameters allow a high degree of differentiation of the actor-portrayed emotions. Positive emotions can be classified with a higher hit rate on the basis of perceived vocal features, confirming suggestions in the literature that it is difficult to find acoustic valence indicators. The results show that the suggested scales (Geneva Voice Perception Scales) can be reliably measured and make a substantial contribution to a more comprehensive assessment of the process of emotion inferences from vocal expression.     

民国时期回族农业经济概述

民国时期,随着社会经济发展,回族整体科技文化素质提高,在回族农民的辛勤劳动下,回民新开垦耕地面积日益扩大,居住村落不断增多,加上经济作物的广泛种植,新型农场的创办,推动了回族经济的新发展.