Deepening democracy?: Demarcation,traditional authorities,and municipal elections in South Africa

Since the end of apartheid in South Africa, municipal elections often have been overlooked. Many analysts have discussed the significance of the national elections, but few have analyzed municipal elections. I argue that local elections are important indicators of democratic consolidation and the deepening of democratic procedures in South Africa. This article examines two issues that shaped recent municipal elections: the electoral demarcation process and the role of the traditional leaders. My analysis provides important lessons for democratic consolidation and representation in South Africa. Given the evidence of higher voter turnout and greater institutionalization of the democratic practice at the local level, traditional authorities may serve as a democratizing function in local politics. Moreover, this article suggests that focus on democratic consolidation should not be limited to the national level of politics. And, finally, the results of this study support the view that consolidation should be considered a continuum.     

JOB MATCH, TENURE AND WAGES PAID BY FIRMS

Using a new data set consisting of a matched sample of workers and firms, and including explicit measures of match quality, the authors estimate a structural model and find new evidence of a strong positive relation between wages and tenure. Inclusion of firm-fixed effects does not significantly reduce the estimated returns to tenure. The results also shed light on the relative importance of human capital and job matching theories.     

Decoding deception: A look at the process

This study examined the effects of sex and response format on the process of decoding deceptive messages. A videotape was made containing 32 items (16 honest and 16 dishonest) in which encoders described a person they liked and a person they disliked both honestly and deceptively. Two response formats were used: (1) the rating of items on a six-point liking scale and a six-point deception scale and (2) a forced choice format whereby subjects had to choose between the four types of items. Decoders were given five sets of scores: (a) accuracy scores, (b) awareness of deception scores, (c) confidence scores, (d) cues scores, which were the number of items on which they mentioned using a particular type of cue (verbal, nonverbal, or both combined), and (e) a measure of response time for each item. In the accuracy analyses, there were so significant main effects for sex for either format. However, when decoding males, females (relative to males) tended to read the overt rather than the covert, affect. Females, however, were more aware of the possibility of deception but did not differentiate between honest and dishonest items. Males were more confident and took less time than females to make a decision. Females mentioned the use of cues more than males did. There were no significant correlations between accuracy and the process variables although for males, but not females, there were significant correlations among the process variables for both honest items and dishonest items.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Applied Psychology Congress (IAAP), Jerusalem, Israel, July, 1986.     

Experimental markets for insurance

This article extends the large amount of research on double-oral auction markets to hazards that produce only losses. We report results from a series of experiments in which subjects endowed with low-probability losses can pay a premium for insurance protection. Insurers specify the price at which they are willing to assume the risk of a loss. Insurance prices approach expected value for a large range of probabilities and loss amounts. Subjects seem to realize losses are statistically independent. Prices are not affected by ambiguity about the probability of loss.     

The effect of unequal priors and unequal misclassification costs on MDA

Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) is a frequently used statistical technique. Although the dependence of this technique on the underlying assumptions concerning population priors and misclassification costs is well known, the assumption most often made by researchers is that both population priors and misclassification costs are equal. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the magnitude of the effect of these assumptions on statistical results. In the savings and loan case used here, the population priors are known:however, the relative misclassification costs are not. To test the sensitivity of the results to the unknown misclassification costs several different misclassification cost assumptions are used.