Qualitative cost–benefit evaluation of complex,emergent programs

This paper discusses a methodology used for a qualitative cost–benefit evaluation of a complex, emergent program. Complex, emergent programs, where implementation varies considerably over time and across sites to respond to local needs and opportunities, present challenges to conventional methods for cost–benefit evaluation. Such programs are characterized by: ill-defined boundaries of what constitutes the intervention, and hence the resources used; non-standardized procedures; differing short-term outcomes across projects, even within the same long-term goals; and outcomes that are the result of multiple factors and co-production, making counter-factual approaches to attribution inadequate and the use of standardized outcome measures problematic. The paper discusses the advantages and limitations of this method and its implications for cost–benefit evaluation of complex programs.     

Gröbner bases and factorisation in discrete probability and Bayes

Gröbner bases, elimination theory and factorization may be used to perform calculations in elementary discrete probability and more complex areas such as Bayesian networks (influence diagrams). The paper covers the application of computational algebraic geometry to probability theory. The application to the Boolean algebra of events is straightforward (and essentially known). The extension into the probability superstructure is via the polynomial interpolation of densities and log densities and this is used naturally in the Bayesian application.     

Prioritizing Environmental Health Risks in the UAE

This article presents the results of a comparative environmental risk‐ranking exercise that was conducted in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to inform a strategic planning process led by the Environment Agency‐Abu Dhabi (EAD). It represents the first national‐level application of a deliberative method for comparative risk ranking first published in this journal. The deliberative method involves a five‐stage process that includes quantitative risk assessment by experts and deliberations by groups of stakeholders. The project reported in this article considered 14 categories of environmental risks to health identified through discussions with EAD staff: ambient and indoor air pollution; drinking water contamination; coastal water pollution; soil and groundwater contamination; contamination of fruits, vegetables, and seafood; ambient noise; stratospheric ozone depletion; electromagnetic fields from power lines; health impacts from climate change; and exposure to hazardous substances in industrial, construction, and agricultural work environments. Results from workshops involving 73 stakeholders who met in five separate groups to rank these risks individually and collaboratively indicated strong consensus that outdoor and indoor air pollution are the highest priorities in the UAE. Each of the five groups rated these as being among the highest risks. All groups rated soil and groundwater contamination as being among the lowest risks. In surveys administered after the ranking exercises, participants indicated that the results of the process represented their concerns and approved of using the ranking results to inform policy decisions. The results ultimately shaped a strategic plan that is now being implemented.     

Euler(p,q) Processes and Their Application to Non Stationary Time Series with Time Varying Frequencies

We introduce Euler(p, q) processes as an extension of the Euler(p) processes for purposes of obtaining more parsimonious models for non stationary processes whose periodic behavior changes approximately linearly in time. The discrete Euler(p, q) models are a class of multiplicative stationary (M-stationary) processes and basic properties are derived. The relationship between continuous and discrete mixed Euler processes is shown. Fundamental to the theory and application of Euler(p, q) processes is a dual relationship between discrete Euler(p, q) processes and ARMA processes, which is established. The usefulness of Euler(p, q) processes is examined by comparing spectral estimation with that obtained by existing methods using both simulated and real data.     

Multiple Book Review: Four Perspectives on Human Natures: Genes,Cultures, and the Human Prospect. Paul R. Ehrlich. Washington,DC: Island Press, 2000, 531 pp.

Population and Environment -     

Black widow spiders in an urban desert: Population variation in an arthropod pest across metropolitan Phoenix, AZ

The effects of urban disturbance are critical to understand, as the majority of the world??s population now resides in urban centers. For example, urbanization often leads to reduced species diversity at the expense of a few urban-adapted taxa. However, it remains unclear why some taxa thrive following human disturbance whereas others do poorly. The western black widow spider, Latrodectus hesperus, thrives in disturbed, urban habitat??often forming dense aggregations (i.e., infestations) relative to typical low-density, desert populations. We examined the population dynamics of ten black widow aggregations spread across metropolitan Phoenix, AZ, during the peak of the breeding season (June?CAugust). Here we show that prey abundance, female mass, web volume and population density exhibit minimal temporal variation across the breeding season, but that prey abundance, female mass and population density show significant spatial variation across the ten urban aggregations. Our measure of prey abundance and foraging success, the number of prey carcasses found in black widow webs, shared a strong positive relationship with female mass and population density, but not with web volume. Surprisingly, female mass, web volume and population density were not correlated with each other. The abiotic variables we measured at each site did a poor job of explaining black widow population parameters, although we did find a marginal trend for more recent developments to harbor denser black widow aggregations. Our findings support the generalization that urbanization heightens spatial variation, and we suggest that local urban prey abundance is influential in promoting urban infestations full of heavy, fecund female black widows. Studies of the population ecology of urban pests are necessary to identify the mechanisms allowing some species to thrive following human disturbance while much native biodiversity is lost following urbanization.     

On Becoming a Good Enough Stepmother

Studies have shown that conflict over parent–child relationships are frequently at the root of stepfamily dissolution and that the stepmother/daughter relationship is the most problematic stepfamily relationship. This paper explores the stepmother–daughter relationship in the family where the biological mother is an active parent and discusses the unique challenges and internal conflicts that the stepmother confronts on entry into the family and its web of preexisting relationships and transferences. “An internal parental stance” which underlies “good enough” stepmothering is conceptualized and the complex psychological processes which underlie this achievement are explored in this paper along with implications for clinical strategies. The term good enough stepmothering is a play on Winnicott’s concept of the good-enough mother—the maternal figure whose attunement to her child enables her to adapt appropriately to her child’s stage of life thus allowing an optimal environment for the child’s development.