Urban versus Rural: Fertility Decline in the Cities and Rural Districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910

Marital fertility in 54 Prussian cities and 407 Prussian Kreise (administrative areas) is analyzed using unusually rich and detailed socioeconomic and demographic data from eight quinquennial census between 1875 and 1910. Pooled cross-section time series methods are used to examine influences on marital fertility level and on marital fertility decline, focusing particularly on fertility differences according to level of urbanization. Increases in female labour force participation rate and income, the growth of financial services and communications, improvement in education, and reduction in infant mortality account for most of the marital fertility decline in 19th century Prussia. In 1875, rural and urban fertility were similar but by 1910, urban fertility was far lower than rural in part because the values of some of these variables changed more rapidly in the cities, and in part because some of these variables had stronger effects in urban settings.     

TRUST,SOCIAL CAPITAL,AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Many argue that elements of a society's norms, culture, or social capital are central to understanding its development. However, these notions have been difficult to capture in economic models. Here we explore a possible role for “trustworthiness” as corresponding to social capital. Individuals are trustworthy when they perform in accordance with promises, even if this does not maximise their payoffs. The usual focus on incentive structures in motivating behaviour plays no role here. Instead, we emphasise more deep‐seated modes of behaviour and consider trustworthy agents being socialised to act as they do. To model this socialisation, we borrow from a process of preference evolution pioneered by Bisin and Verdier (2001). The model developed endogenously accounts for social capital and explores its role in the process of economic development. It captures in a simple, formal way the interaction between social capital and the economy's productive processes. The results obtained caution against rapid reform and provide an explanation for why late‐developing countries may not easily be able to transplant the modes of production that have proved useful in the West. (JEL: O1, O3, O4, Z1)     

POLITICAL DECENTRALISATION AND THE RESURGENCE OF REGIONAL IDENTITIES IN THAILAND

This article looks at the cultural resurgence that is taking place in Thailand's regions and amongst its ethnic minorities after a century of assimilationist policies carried out by the central Thai government in the interests of national integration. The article argues that the cultural resurgence is a result of three decades of economic development and a parallel process of democratisation of the political system. This has not only given different cultural groups new political rights to express their culture openly, but has also resulted in the government no longer regarding such expressions of cultural identity as posing a threat to Thai national unity.     

Sexual attraction status and adolescent suicide proneness: the roles of hopelessness, depression, and social support

This study explored the relationship between sexual attraction status (same-sex, both-sex, and opposite-sex) and suicidal behavior in a diverse sample of adolescents (N = 1,533 youth). Adolescents with attractions to both sexes reported greater suicide proneness, recent and lifetime suicidal ideation, and past suicide attempts than those with exclusively opposite-sex attractions; individuals reporting same-sex attractions generally demonstrated moderate elevations on these variables. As hypothesized, both hopelessness and depression mediated the relationship between sexual attraction status and suicide proneness. Social support moderated the mediating effect of depression but not hopelessness in the sexual attraction status-suicide proneness link. Targeting the distress that can be associated with experiencing same-sex or both-sex attractions may enhance suicide prevention efforts, particularly in U.S. youth with reduced social support.     

Shared and unique characteristics of school,cyber and family victimization among school-aged children in Hong Kong

Victimizations from online and offline violence, such as sibling violence, school violence and witness of family violence, both have negative associations with victims' mental health and may share similar individual and family characteristics. This study aims to explore the common and differentiated characteristics in the prediction of school, cyber and family victimization and whether there are unique associations within these victimization types. We employed a two-stage stratified sampling method to collect a representative sample of 5567 children aged 3–17 from a cross-sectional, school-based survey in Hong Kong. Results showed that all types of child victimization, including sibling, school and cyberbullying, as well as the witness of violence at home, were positively correlated with each other. Children's age was positively related to the occurrence and cooccurrence of all types of child victimization. Frequent family residential mobility and parents' higher education level were positively related to all types of children's victimization. The scores of all aspects of children's paediatric quality of life were found negatively related to children's school victimization. This study provides insight into the unique and shared elements of children's online and offline victimization. Knowledge of the distinguished familial gradients of child victimization at home and beyond could benefit the development of child victimization prevention.     

Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?

We construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations. These fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles, like volatile investment and smooth consumption. We assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time. Persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so. We find that for a wide range of parameter values, the amount of endogenous stickiness is small. Thus, we find that in a standard quantitative model, staggered price‐setting, alone, does not generate business cycle fluctuations.     

Statistical approaches for conducting network meta-analysis in drug development

We introduce health technology assessment and evidence synthesis briefly, and then concentrate on the statistical approaches used for conducting network meta-analysis (NMA) in the development and approval of new health technologies. NMA is an extension of standard meta-analysis where indirect as well as direct information is combined and can be seen as similar to the analysis of incomplete-block designs. We illustrate it with an example involving three treatments, using fixed-effects and random-effects models, and using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. As most statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry are familiar with SAS? software for analyzing clinical trials, we provide example code for each of the methods we illustrate. One issue that has been overlooked in the literature is the choice of constraints applied to random effects, and we show how this affects the estimates and standard errors and propose a symmetric set of constraints that is equivalent to most current practice. Finally, we discuss the role of statisticians in planning and carrying out NMAs and the strategy for dealing with important issues such as heterogeneity.     

Gender, acculturation, and health among Mexican Americans

This study examines whether the relationship between acculturation and physical health varies by gender among Mexican Americans, and if the mechanisms that mediate the acculturation-health relationship operate differently by gender. Using the 1998-2007 National Health Interview Study, we construct a composite measure of acculturation and estimate regression models for the total number of health conditions, hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes. Immigrants with the lowest levels of acculturation are the healthiest, but this association is stronger for men. Medical care plays a central role in accounting for gender and acculturation differences across health outcomes-increased access to and utilization of medical care is associated with worse health, which suggests that better health among recent arrivals (particularly men) partially results from their lack of knowledge about their own poor health.     

Companion piece: Needs, rights, and the human family: a bio-psycho-social-spiritual perspective

This article sets forth a bio-psycho-social-spiritual perspective on the needs and rights of children. Consideration is first given to the philosophical nature of need. The nature of rights is then examined in relation to need as a basis for social justice claims. Various need paradigms, such as human development needs, socially constructed needs, and needs hierarchies, are considered and compared to the rights paradigm presented in the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Rationale for ratification is then presented.