Sentencing outcomes of convicted child sex offenders

This research examines the sentencing outcomes of convicted child sexual offenders from data collected over an eight year period. Multiple regression and nominal log linear regression are used to examine length of prison sentence, length of probation sentence, and whether the convicted offender is actually sent to prison or to probation. While many independent variables appear to be related to sentence outcome, they fall into three categories: characteristics of the offender, characteristics of the victim, and characteristics of the crime. Additionally, while many variables appear related at the bivariate level, when multivariate analysis is applied, fewer variables remain significant, and these are mostly from the characteristics of the offense.     

Toward a developmental taxonomy of adult sexual aggressors of women: antisocial trajectories in youth, mating effort, and sexual criminal activity in adulthood

Recent studies suggest that sexual aggressors of women are characterized by early- and late-onset antisocial trajectories. However, these studies have not examined the role of mating effort and its role on sexual offending in adulthood. This study examined differences in the level of mating effort of early- and late-onset offenders and the association between mating effort and sexual offending in adulthood. Factor analysis identified two latent constructs of sexuality: mating effort and high sexual drive. Early-onset offenders exhibited significantly higher levels of mating effort and sexual drive. Furthermore, high mating effort and high sexual drive were more strongly associated with an earlier onset and a higher frequency of sexual crimes in adulthood than group membership. This study provided empirical evidence that a developmental taxonomy of early and late onset distinguishes the sexual activity and sexual criminal activity of adult sexual aggressors. The findings are discussed in light of a developmental taxonomy of sexual aggressors of women.     

Trade liberalization in textiles: Policy effects in an import-competing industry

I trace the dynamic impact of removal of textile quotas in the US on output, employment and plant closure in that industry. A dynamic theoretical model of firm-level decision-making is estimated with US Census manufacturing data and with industry-level demand-side data. Simulations performed with the estimated model provide a decomposition of the historical record into parts attributable to import competition, to technological progress, and to a secular real-wage increase. Plant closure and a fall in domestic prices are largely associated with technological progress, while downsizing, layoffs and reduction in domestic market share are associated with trade liberalization. The market-clearing domestic price of textiles is identified as a crucial channel in transmitting technology or import price shocks to layoffs and plant closure.     

Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates—successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths—are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.     

Major League Baseball Players' Life Expectancies*

Objective. We examine the importance of anthropometric and performance measures, and age, period, and cohort effects in explaining life expectancies among major league baseball (MLB) players over the past century. Methods. We use discrete time hazard models to calculate life tables with covariates with data from Total Baseball, a rich source of information on all players who played in the major league. Results. Compared to 20‐year‐old U.S. males, MLB players can expect almost five additional years of life. Height, weight, handedness, and player ratings are unassociated with the risk of death in this population of highly active and successful adults. Career length is inversely associated with the risk of death, likely because those who play longer gain additional incomes, physical fitness, and training. Conclusions. Our results indicate improvements in life expectancies with time for all age groups and indicate possible improvements in longevity in the general U.S. population.     

Child Protection and the Media: Lessons from the Last Three Decades

Summary During the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, sensationalist coverage ofa series of celebrated child abuse scandals in England and Walesresulted in the repeated vilification in the mass media of thosechild welfare agencies deemed culpable for the deaths of thechildren involved. This paper explores the contribution of themedia to the creation of the climate of fear, blame and mistrustwhich seems to have become endemic within the field of childprotection. It suggests that damaging distortions have beenintroduced into the child protection system as a result of thedefensive responses of the relevant authorities at both nationaland local level to the media onslaught. A more strategic approachto understanding and managing media coverage of this difficultfield is outlined.     

Human Rights of Migrants: Challenges of the New Decade

This review summarizes main trends, issues, debates, actors and initiatives regarding recognition and extension of protection of the human rights of migrants. Its premise is that the rule of law and universal notions of human rights are essential foundations for democratic society and social peace. Evidence demonstrates that violations of migrants' human rights are so widespread and commonplace that they are a defining feature of international migration today. About 150 million persons live outside their countries; in many States, legal application of human rights norms to non‐citizens is inadequate or seriously deficient, especially regarding irregular migrants. Extensive hostility against, abuse of and violence towards migrants and other non‐nationals has become much more visible worldwide in recent years. Research, documentation and analysis of the character and extent of problems and of effective remedies remain minimal. Resistance to recognition of migrants' rights is bound up in exploitation of migrants in marginal, low status, inadequately regulated or illegal sectors of economic activity. Unauthorized migrants are often treated as a reserve of flexible labour, outside the protection of labour safety, health, minimum wage and other standards, and easily deportable. Evidence on globalization points to worsening migration pressures in many parts of the world. Processes integral to globalization have intensified disruptive effects of modernization and capitalist development, contributing to economic insecurity and displacement for many. Extension of principles in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights culminated in the 1990 International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families. With little attention, progress in ratifications was very slow until two years ago. A global campaign revived attention; entry into force is likely in 2001. Comparative analysis notes that ILO migrant worker Conventions have generally achieved objectives but States have resisted adoption of any standards on treatment of non‐nationals. A counter‐offensive against human rights as universal, indivisible and inalienable underlies resistance to extension of human rights protection to migrants. A parallel trend is deliberate association of migration and migrants with criminality. Trafficking has emerged as a global theme contextualizing migration in a framework of combatting organized crime and criminality, subordinating human rights protections to control and anti‐crime measures. Intergovernmental cooperation on migration “management” is expanding rapidly, with functioning regional intergovernmental consultative processes in all regions, generally focused on strengthening inter‐state cooperation in controlling and preventing irregular migration through improved border controls, information sharing, return agreements and other measures. Efforts to defend human rights of migrants and combat xenophobia remain fragmented, limited in impact and starved of resources. Nonetheless, NGOs in all regions provide orientation, services and assistance to migrants, public education and advocating respect for migrants rights and dignity. Several international initiatives now highlight migrant protection concerns, notably the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights of Migrants, the Global Campaign promoting the 1990 UN Convention, UN General Assembly proclamation of International Migrants Day, the 2001 World Conference Against Racism and Xenophobia, anti‐discrimination activity by ILO, and training by IOM. Suggestions to governments emphasize the need to define comprehensive, coordinated migration policy and practice based on economic, social and development concerns rather than reactive control measures to ensure beneficial migration, social harmony, and dignified treatment of nationals and non‐nationals. NGOs, businesses, trade unions, and religious groups are urged to advocate respect for international standards, professionalize services and capacities, take leadership in opposing xenophobic behaviour, and join international initiatives. Need for increased attention to migrants rights initiatives and inter‐agency cooperation by international organizations is also noted.     

Organisational Learning and Governance Through Embedded Practices

This article has two principal aims. The first is to reconcile thecompetence based approach to the firm with traditional contractualapproaches, instead of treating them as incompatible. The mainthesis advanced is that firms manage simultaneously competencesand transactions, but they do so in accordance with a specificlexicographic order of priorities. The second aim is to explorein detail the sources of knowledge formation in the firm. Theanalysis privileges anthropological readings which stress the roleof learning – both radical and incremental – within distributed communities of practice.     

Structural and Behavioural Changes in the Short TermPreventive Check in the Northwest Balkans in the 18th and19th Centuries

Fertility responded negatively to grain insufficiency(proxied by grain price increases), and mortality respondedpositively in Croatia-Slavonia-Srem in the 18thand 19th centuries, as in most of Europe. Shiftsin the intensity and timing of these responsesoccurred over time as social and economic structureschanged. Shifts in the elasticity of fertility withrespect to grain supply inversely mimic and lagchanges in the elasticity of mortality. Both appear tobe induced by increasing land shortage, the collapseof feudalism, and differences in the patterns ofadjustment to post-feudal conditions among former civiland military serfs. Generally, responses are strongerfor civil and former civil serfs, who may have been inless favourable economic circumstances than themilitary. Fertility responses in the year of a priceshock come to dominate those in the year following,suggesting a shift from contraception to abortion aseconomic and social conditions apparently worsened andstrategies of control intensified. Analysis of monthlyresponses supports the conjecture based on the annualresponses. The shift to the preventive check and strength of thepreventive check in the same year as the price shockis unusual in Europe and beyond. Analysis is based on25 parishes and employs lagged annual and monthly timeseries analysis with corrections for autocorrelation,in combination with ethnographic and historical data.